The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0942 ET - Recession talk in Canada, sparked by a 0.1% annualized decline in 1Q, was for naught based on April GDP data, says Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. GDP by industry rose 0.5% in April, and 1.1% on a 12-month basis, which marks the fastest pace of year-over-year growth in seven months. Porter says GDP is on track for 2%-plus annualized growth in 2Q, given early estimate for a 0.1% jump in May. The May estimate "will serve as a reminder that Canada is still growing slower than potential," Porter says. "Nevertheless, it's also clear that the small two-quarter dip in output was a false alarm on the recession watch." (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0940 ET - Canada's GDP data for April should take some air out of the recent recession talk in the country, says Marc Ercolao, economist at TD Bank. GDP by industry rose 0.5% in April from the prior month, and that leaves quarterly GDP tracking above 2% annualized, he says. GDP growth in April was largely fueled by the commodities sector, although 14 of 20 sectors tracked by Statistics Canada recorded growth in the month. Ercolao says the economy is grinding through a soft patch. For the Bank of Canada, he adds, "this argues for patience rather than a pivot." He says the data will take pressure off BOC to cut rates to deal with the economic slump. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0937 ET - Bitcoin ETFs tracked by CoinGlass continue to shed value, with another $231 million liquidated from the market through yesterday. June has been a tough month for bitcoin ETFs, posting net outflows totaling $4.3 billion--including eight straight days of net outflows recorded by ETFs, says Konstantinos Crysikos of Kudo.com in a note. It's the largest monthly withdrawal seen all year, with macroeconomics currently favoring bonds and currency, not riskier assets like bitcoin. At this level, bitcoin is close to crossing over the year-low set last week. Bitcoin is down 3% this morning, while ethereum sinks 3.6% and XRP goes down 3.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0926 ET - Quarterly growth in Canada likely resumed after data shows a sizable jump in GDP by industry in April, says Michael Davenport from Oxford Economics. GDP by industry rose 0.5% in April from the prior month, bringing relief to policymakers after two straight quarters of contraction. Davenport, however, says Canada's economy faces stiff headwinds, which includes US trade policy, stagnant population growth and the lingering effects of the global energy shock. Davenport, an economist, says economic output should pick up steam in 2H but warns Canada's economy could find itself on a permanently lower path should--as expected--the Trump administration opt not to renew USMCA. That would subject the trade pact to annual reviews, he says, extending the level of uncertainty hovering over Canada. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0925 ET - The Japanese yen is unlikely to extend its falls against the dollar much further as it hits a 40-year low, UBS Global Wealth Management analysts say in a note. "We would caution against chasing the yen weaker, given already crowded investor positioning, and authorities' readiness to intervene," they say. In coming months, the yen could recover against the dollar if markets scale back expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate rises. However, in the nearer term, the yen is likely to stay under pressure from persistent negative rates adjusted for inflation even though the Bank of Japan is on track to raise rates further, they say. The dollar rises to as high as 162.50 yen, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0916 ET - Bitcoin is dragging to close out the month and the quarter, with the token down 2.9% to $58,494, according to data from LSEG. With Strategy expected to sell some of its massive bitcoin treasury, traders appear to be anticipating another slide in prices--although how much lower bitcoin can get is up for debate. Strategy holds 4% of all of the circulating bitcoin in the world, which is more than enough to move prices in any direction. Ethereum falls 3.8% to $1,554, XRP is down 3.3% to $1.03, and solana falls 4.2% to $72.12. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0901 ET - Canada GDP is on track for a sizable 2.5% annualized gain in 2Q following better-than-expected economic data for April, says economist Andrew Grantham from CIBC Capital Markets. GDP by industry in April rose 0.5% from the prior month, and Statistics Canada's early estimate is for a 0.1% month-over-month jump in May. Grantham says a 2.5% annualized jump in 2Q would surpass by a wide margin the Bank of Canada's forecast for a 1.5% rise. Still, "it wouldn't quite make up for the undershoot in 1Q from an output gap point of view," Grantham says, in reference to the 0.1% annualized drop in 1Q. Grantham says the firm is sticking to its call for no move in BOC's policy rate this year. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
0855 ET - U.K. sovereign bonds, or gilts, could be set for periods of elevated volatility as the political environment remains shaky, BlackRock Investment Institute say in a note. BlackRock Investment Institute expect gilt investors to become more price-sensitive and have a neutral position on the asset. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0853 ET - Treasury yields rise, on path for a quarterly increase. An agreement to fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive and oil prices edge higher. Fed funds futures price at least one Fed hike this year, according to CME. U.S. labor data starts to trickle in, with the JOLTS report due at 10 a.m. ADP's private-sector jobs report comes tomorrow, followed by June's nonfarm payrolls Thursday. Both are expected to show slowing job creation, in WSJ surveys. President Trump signals legal pressure on Fed Governor Cook will continue. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2%. The 10-year is at 4.390%, up from 4.375% yesterday. The two-year rises to 4.121% from 4.108%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0847 ET - Canada's economy rebounded as expected early in 2Q, notching the largest expansion in April in nine months. GDP rose 0.5% on-month, slightly stronger than the 0.4% growth economists anticipated. Statistics Canada's advance data indicates GDP grew a more modest but still positive 0.1% in May. April's driver was a recovery in goods-producing activity, buoyed by the strongest growth in oil and gas extraction since February 2025 and a pickup in manufacturing. Construction also was up, for the first time in five months, while the public sector grew in April for a fifth month in six. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0818 ET - Bitcoin stays under pressure as U.S. interest-rate rise expectations reduce appetite for risky assets and lift the dollar. Investors are also weighing Strategy's announcement Monday that it could sell bitcoin to raise up to $1.25 billion in cash as the crypto-hoarding company attempts to strengthen its balance sheet. Meanwhile, the deadline for the transition to the EU's MiCA regulation for crypto firms is on Wednesday. Companies will need to have obtained a MiCA license to continue offering services across the bloc. Bitcoin falls 2.1% to $58,949, having reached a 21-month low of $58,075 last Thursday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)The dollar was near a 40-year high against the yen. "Japan Might Struggle to Curb Yen's Slide Against Dollar -- Market Talk," at 0827 GMT, incorrectly said the dollar hit a 40-year low.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 30, 2026 09:42 ET (13:42 GMT)
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