The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0716 GMT - The dollar's gains against the yen continues to be capped by increased vigilance over FX intervention by Japanese authorities, four analysts of Nomura's Global FX Strategy say in a research report. "Based on past intervention episodes, though we note the sample size is extremely limited, we are mindful about MOF intervention becoming increasingly likely, as USD/JPY approaches the 163 level," they say. The analysts estimate 163 level based on data from two rounds of yen-buying intervention within the same year in both 2022 and 2024. The dollar is little changed at 161.79 yen, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0713 GMT - Sterling rises against a softer dollar but trades steady versus the euro ahead of a major policy speech by Andy Burnham, the frontrunner to become the U.K's next prime minister, later in the day. It will mark Burnham's first speech since launching a bid to succeed Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who announced his resignation last week. Burnham is expected to commit to plans to raise living standards and boost growth, according to media reports. Any hints about fiscal policy will be key for markets. Sterling rises 0.1% to $1.3221. The euro trades flat at 0.8627 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0700 GMT - Singapore's economy should be able to hold up well this year, thanks to strong demand for artificial intelligence-related products, Capital Economics' economists say in a note. Exports of electronics goods were up 68% on year in the first four months of the year, they note. The recent decline in global energy prices bodes well for the city-state's economy, even though it is less energy-intensive than many of its peers in Asia. The rapid productivity growth in the manufacturing sector should also ensure that strong economic growth doesn't lead to a rise in underlying price pressures, CE says.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0700 GMT - The dollar may remain stronger versus the yen for longer on wider U.S.-Japan yield differentials, LGT Private Banking Asia says in its latest FX outlook report. Firstly, the notably hawkish outcome of the Fed's recent meeting had a greater impact on Treasury yields and the dollar, the bank says. Secondly, the BOJ's "well-telegraphed" rate increase, without a stronger signal on pace or scale of tightening, failed to support the yen, the bank adds. LGT Private Banking Asia maintains its dollar forecasts of 158 yen, 156 yen, and 155 yen over 3-, 6- and 12-month horizons, respectively. The dollar is little changed at 161.78 yen, according to LSEG data. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0652 GMT - Bitcoin rises marginally as U.S. stock futures edge higher after the U.S. and Iran agreed to halt attacks. U.S. officials said the U.S. and Iran would end days of back-and-forth fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and resume peace talks, the WSJ reports. Meanwhile, investors will be monitoring the performance of tech stocks this week following a recent selloff that weighed on cryptocurrencies. U.S. labor market data including the key nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday will also be in focus given the recent increase in expectations for interest-rate rises by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin rises 0.7% to $60,006, having reached a 21-month low of $58,075 last Thursday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0644 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields edge up in early trade, potentially signaling limits for further yield falls. The focus on oil, inflation and the European Central Bank's forum in Sintra, Portugal, could limit the downside for German Bund yields, Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann says in a note. "Although oil prices near prewar levels reduce tail risks for economic growth, inflation and rates volatility, inflation is probably not coming down quickly enough to dispel the ECB hawkishness," the rates strategist says. Government bond supply on Monday will come from Belgium, which will auction 2.6 billion euros to 3 billion euros in 2034-, 2041- and 2056-dated bonds, known as OLOs. The 10-year Bund yield edges up 0.9 basis points to 2.859%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0635 GMT - The dollar eases as investors look ahead to a batch of labor market data for further direction on the potential path of interest rates. The job openings and labor turnover survey will be released on Tuesday followed by the ADP private payrolls report and Challenger, Gray & Christmas job cuts data on Wednesday. The all-important nonfarm payrolls report will be released Thursday along with weekly jobless claims ahead of Friday's U.S. public holiday. The data will be closely monitored after the Federal Reserve's meeting earlier this month boosted market expectations for rate rises. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.278, having reached a 13-month high of 101.800 Wednesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0610 GMT - The rally in U.S. Treasurys, which brought yields lower, is expected to run out of steam, while German Bunds could gain further, Capital Economics' Thomas Mathews says in a note. U.S. Treasurys face some key tests this week, the head of markets, Asia Pacific, says. One of the key arguments for Federal Reserve rate cuts, when they were still on the table, was to protect the health of the labor market, he says. "But that has gained momentum lately and we expect another solid employment report (for June) later this week," Mathews says. It's increasingly clear that the labor market won't be a reason to delay tightening either and "that's perhaps the biggest near-term risk to Treasurys, but it's not the only one," he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0555 GMT - Citi rates strategists slightly raise their year-end forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.9%, versus targeting 3.75% previously, they say in a note. The revision comes after the Federal Reserve's hawkish shift at its June meeting, the first under Chairman Kevin Warsh. However, Citi strategists continue to lean medium-term bullish since they don't see any inflation spillover from the recent Middle East conflict into core inflation. They also see the balance of risk toward a weaker, not stronger, labor market, they say. The 10-year Treasury yield last trades 0.6 basis point higher at 4.377%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0550 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise slightly in Asian trade, with increases driven by short-end yields, suggesting that markets continue to bet on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Meanwhile, following the most recent bouts of fighting, the U.S. and Iran have again agreed to halt attacks. "However, the market is mainly focused on ships continuing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent oil is trading around $72 per barrel," SEB's Amanda Sundstrom says in a note. For the week ahead, the U.S. jobs data on Thursday is in focus. The two-year Treasury yield is up 1.6 basis points at 4.103%, while the 10-year yield rises 0.6 basis points to 4.377%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0533 GMT - Gross government bond issuance in the eurozone in the third quarter is expected to fall 20% sequentially to 323 billion euros, LBBW's Elmar Voelker forecasts. However, net issuance--gross issuance minus redemptions--is set to increase by 5% to just under 110 billion euros, the senior fixed income analyst says. His issuance forecast is based on the assumption that national debt agencies will continue to follow the usual seasonal pattern which points to a slowdown in supply during the summer months. Over the past four years, gross issuance has declined by between 18% and 23% on a quarter-over-quarter basis from the second quarter to the third quarter, he says. Additionally, aggregate annual bond funding completion in the eurozone has already reached 60%, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0527 GMT - Bitcoin falls back below $60,000 amid relatively weak short-term demand. Market sentiment toward risk assets, including cryptocurrency, has yet to stabilize convincingly, while spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund outflows, higher-for-longer interest rates and a stronger dollar serve as headwinds, says XS.com's Linh Tran in a note. The psychologically important $60,000 level has helped to underpin bitcoin since February, and the cryptocurrency falling below this level appears technically significant, the analyst says. "If bitcoin fails to quickly reclaim and hold above the $60,000-$61,000 area, the correction could extend further, with the $55,000-$56,000 region becoming the next key support area to watch," she adds. Bitcoin declines 0.1% to $59,501.61. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 29, 2026 03:16 ET (07:16 GMT)
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