The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0257 GMT - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, tracking lower soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Lower crude oil prices could also weigh on CPO prices as softer energy prices reduce palm oil's attractiveness as a biofuel feedstock. However, the recent ringgit weakness could provide some support, making Malaysian palm oil more competitive for overseas buyers, PhillipCapital says in a note. PhillipCapital expects prices to face resistance at 4,700 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,433 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery is 11 ringgit lower at 4,546 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0227 GMT - OCBC Group Research cuts its quarterly forecasts for oil through 2Q 2027 as Strait of Hormuz's flows rebound. "Shipping traffic--and thus oil flows--through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up following the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding," two OCBC strategists say in a research report. "Expectations of normalized flows quickly pushed crude prices back to pre-conflict levels, reviving the oversupply narrative," the strategists say. OCBC lowers its Brent oil forecasts to $75 per barrel from $85 a barrel for 3Q 2026, to $75 per barrel from $80 a barrel for 4Q 2026, to $73 a barrel from $75 per barrel for 1Q 2027, and to $71 a barrel from $75 per barrel for 2Q 2027. Front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.9% lower at $70.90 per barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0142 GMT - Brent crude is expected to trade in a softer range of $70-$85 a barrel in 2H, assuming the U.S.-Iran interim agreement holds, the Strait of Hormuz continues to remain open and no major conflict resumes, Public Investment Bank analyst Khairul Fahmi says in a note. He doesn't expect prices to return to prewar lows, as tanker traffic is normalizing gradually, some energy facilities still require repairs and inventories need to be rebuilt after recent drawdowns. Public IB maintains its overweight rating on Malaysia's oil and gas sector, pegging Hibiscus Petroleum and Dialog as its top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0106 GMT - Rising energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz prompt UBS to cut its 2026-27 oil-price forecasts. UBS now expects Brent crude to average $84 a barrel this year, down $9 a barrel from earlier. It also lowers its 2027 oil-price forecast to $75 a barrel, from $85 a barrel. "Lower geopolitical risk and quick rebound in flows have led to a steeper price decline than we had expected," UBS says. It expects prices to rebound slightly to $80 a barrel in 2H this year as floating storage in the Gulf normalizes and demand picks up. UBS also sees a higher risk premium as the path to normalization could remain bumpy. "The need to refill inventories should still support prices through 2027 but the required inventory rebuild is smaller than we previously expected at 1 billion barrels," UBS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
0044 GMT - One thing to watch in Woodside Energy's 2Q production report: the extent of decline at the Sangomar oil field in Senegal. Macquarie says this could be the first quarter of material output falls at the asset. It is expecting quarterly production of 85,000 barrels of crude oil per day at Sangomar. That would be lower than the 99,000 barrels per day achieved in 1Q. At group level, Woodside likely produced 40.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2Q with revenue of US$3.67 billion, Macquarie says. It has a neutral call and A$30.00/share price target on Woodside, which is down 1.7% at A$27.93.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2351 GMT - Oil falls in early Asian trade on more signs of increased supply amid easing Middle East tensions. The supply has surged in recent weeks, ANZ Research analysts say. They cite a media report quoting a U.S. official as saying that American military support has helped boost oil flows to more than 10 million barrels a day. Also, "the U.S. and Iran arrived for peace talks in Doha, with U.S. negotiators saying progress in indirect talks with Iran had been made," the analysts say. "This eased concerns that a return to conflict between the two sides would disrupt the movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz," they add. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.8% lower at $68.04 per barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
Lessons from the stifling of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to drive M&A activity in the oil and gas industry, says Macquarie. It expects producers of LNG to be particularly sought after. "Oil price normalization presents new opportunities for acquirers," Macquarie says. It notes Australia's Santos trades at a 14% discount to the mid-2025 offer from a consortium led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. unit XRG. "Any new approaches must be at a higher level now," Macquarie says. Santos is due to report 2Q metrics this month. Macquarie forecasts 2Q output of 23.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, slightly below consensus expectations for 24.3 million barrels. Quarterly revenue is projected to be US$1.55 billion. Santos ended Wednesday at A$7.19. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1952 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures are stuck in a range as this week's hot weather lifts cooling demand, while abundant production and inventories keep a lid on gains. Weekly storage data due tomorrow from the EIA are expected to show an increase in the surplus over the five-year average. "Although we look for a stretch in the surplus to around 160 Bcf or more, we still expect this increase to be negated within a couple of weeks by temperatures that will likely remain above average into the middle of this new month," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Analysts in a WSJ survey see an injection of 81 Bcf, compared with a five-year average storage build of 64 Bcf. Nymex natural gas settles down 1.7% at $3.220/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1934 GMT - Crude futures post back-to-back losses as ships move through the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. and Iran continue talks though mediators. The market is focusing mostly on the supply side, while demand expectations are also weak for this year, says Marcus McGregor, head of commodities research at investment management firm Conning. If the agreement with Iran sticks and there are no more disruptions, inventories should rebuild rapidly, he says. "We entered this year thinking that we saw weakness in the second half, even before the situation took place in Iran. With things quieting down, I think we're back to that kind of narrative again, that we're looking at inventory builds in the second half of this year and definitely softer prices as we head into 2027." WTI settles down 1.3% at $68.58 and Brent falls 1.9% to $71.57. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1510 GMT - U.K. stocks have favorable valuations and provide diversification from AI investments, Helen Jewell, International CIO, fundamental equities at BlackRock says at their 2026 midyear outlook media roundtable. The U.K. equities market has stocks in the commodities sector, energy sector, and big banks which look attractive, she says. U.K. stocks look underpriced because they have been left out of the AI rally, Jewell says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1347 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures tick lower, holding in their recent range as supplies are seen adequate to meet strong power-sector demand from above-normal temperatures across much of the U.S. "Temperatures continue to ramp up across the Midwest and East, with the hottest days of this event still ahead," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. The heat is expected to peak Friday and Saturday, before reverting closer to normal for the remainder of the two-week forecast, he adds. Nymex natural gas is off 0.7% at $3.251/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1304 GMT - Oil futures are lower as the market removes some more risk premium with the U.S. and Iran continuing to pursue a deal and tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. "Physical market weakness, Brent's contango structure, rising exports from Iran and record Russian shipments point to improving global supplies," analysts at Kotak Neo say in a note. "Improving supply flows and expectations of a sizeable global surplus remain the dominant bearish drivers, while any disruption to Hormuz traffic or breakdown in diplomatic negotiations could quickly revive geopolitical risk premium and support crude prices." WTI is off 1.1% at $68.74 a barrel, and Brent is down 1.5% at $71.84 with the September contract moving to the front of the curve.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 01, 2026 22:57 ET (02:57 GMT)
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