Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting July 6.
The minutes to the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest meeting are likely to mark the highlight of the economic calendar in the coming week as investors look for further clues on whether and when U.S. interest rates could rise.
In Europe, minutes from the European Central Bank are also released. In Asia, inflation prints for several economies set the tone as markets look for evidence of the lasting impact of the energy shock in the wake of a fragile truce in the Middle East.
Central bank decisions from New Zealand and Malaysia are also on the docket.
U.S.
Minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting will be released on Wednesday, the first meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, where rates were left unchanged at between 3.5% and 3.75%.
The minutes could offer a greater insight into the Federal Open Market Committee's thinking, Investec analyst Ellie Henderson said in a note.
"We presume they will be in the same form as have been previously, although we do note that the statement released at the time of the [rate] announcement was in a slimmed-down form."
The Fed's statement and rate projections suggested that rates could increase to counteract rising inflation. Warsh has stressed the importance of tackling inflation and markets priced in a greater risk of interest rates moving up as a result.
However, Warsh then said in more recent comments that his first weeks in the job have seen risks of higher inflation recede amid easing tensions in the Middle East. On top of that, U.S. jobs data for June were much weaker than expected, revealing that the U.S. economy created just 57,000 jobs over the month even as the unemployment rate edged lower.
In that light, investors will be looking for further clues about whether or not the Fed could raise rates over the coming months, particularly as other recent data have suggested that U.S. economy is performing well. U.S. money markets currently fully price a 25 basis-point rate increase in December, with a sizeable risk of an earlier move in October, LSEG data show.
With price pressures easing and some signs of weakness in the jobs market, however, there is a possibility that hikes might not materialize, said Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter.
Monday's ISM report on services sector activity in June could also attract heightened interest as investors look to see whether the U.S. economy is continuing to display signs of strength.
Other data due during the week include trade data for May on Tuesday, then weekly jobless claims and June existing home sales data Thursday.
The Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $22 billion 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Canada
In Canada, jobs data for June will be keenly eyed on Friday following strong figures in the previous month. Canada added 87,800 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 6.6% in May.
The Bank of Canada noted this robust data at the June meeting but said that looking through monthly volatility, employment in Canada is little changed since the start of the year.
Other data include May trade data and the Ivey purchasing managers' survey on Tuesday.
Eurozone
The eurozone's data calendar thins out in the coming week.
Germany will publish manufacturing orders on Monday and industrial production data on Tuesday, both for May. German and French final inflation data for June are due Friday, and Italy will announce industrial production data for May too. Eurozone producer price index and retail trade data for May are due Monday.
"Recent eurozone data convey a common message: the economy looks to be stabilizing after the Iran-related shock," Nicola Nobile, chief Italy economist at Oxford Economics said in a note. "But although the worst seems to be over in terms of inflation and the impact on activity, underlying momentum remains modest, albeit marginally stronger than expected at the peak of the war," the economist said.
The European Central Bank will release the accounts of its June meeting on Thursday. The ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points in June, bringing the key deposit rate to 2.25%.
The Eurogroup and Ecofin finance minister meetings will take place on Thursday and Friday.
Austria will hold a bond auction on Tuesday; Ireland on Thursday and Italy on Friday; while Portugal might announce an auction for Wednesday.
Germany will auction May 2041 green Bunds on Tuesday and it will launch new, August 2036-dated Bunds on Wednesday.
U.K.
The Halifax house price data for June and the Office for Budget Responsibility report on Fiscal Risks and Sustainability will be released on Tuesday.
The Bank of England will publish the Financial Stability Report on Tuesday and follow up with a press conference.
"In this report we will be looking at the early findings from the Bank of England's System-Wide Exploratory Scenario (SWES)," Investec analysts said in a note. "It explores how the UK financial system, beyond just the traditional banking sector, would respond to a market shock and is the first exercise of its kind globally." This has come about as risks over the private credit market have grown.
The RICS house price survey for June, which monitors price trends, demand and sales in the housing market, will be released on Thursday.
The fall in energy prices after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war has prompted markets to scale back interest-rate rise expectations. "Retracing mortgage rates should, in turn, encourage more would-be buyers into the housing market," Investec analysts said. However, it could take a while before enough demand builds for the stock of unsold homes to diminish, which means there's likely to be only a small improvement in the RICS house price balance in June, they said.
The U.K. Debt Management Office plans to auction the March 2033 gilt on Tuesday.
Switzerland
Switzerland will hold a bond auction on Wednesday.
Poland
Poland's central bank announces its interest-rate decision on Wednesday in the wake of recent lower-than-expected inflation data for June. Inflation eased to 2.5% in June, in line with the central bank's target. "We still expect some deterioration in inflation towards the end of the year, which should leave the National Bank of Poland policy rate unchanged for a longer period," ING analyst Frantisek Taborsky said in a note. Market pricing on LSEG showed a 70% chance rates will be held at 2.25% and 30% odds of a 25 basis points rate rise.
Scandinavia
Norway's inflation data for June will be published on July 10. Inflation eased to an annual rate of 3.1% in May but the core measure unexpectedly accelerated to 3.4%.
The Norges Bank held rates unchanged at 4.25% at its last meeting in June after raising rates in May. However, it signaled another rate rise at one of its forthcoming meetings, noting that inflation remains too high. ING expects the Norges Bank to raise rates by 25 basis points in August, citing elevated underlying inflation.
"In our view, the key to the current policy stance in Norway is that inflation concerns predate this spring's energy price volatility," ING foreign exchange strategist Francesco Pesole said in a note.
Japan
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to hold a branch managers' meeting and release a regional economic report Thursday. The report could give hints on how Middle East uncertainty and higher oil prices are affecting smaller businesses.
Household spending data and current account balance for May are also slated for release on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
The BOJ is scheduled to make outright purchases of three segments of Japan's sovereign debt market on Monday. Bonds include those with tenors of up to 1 year and those with tenors more than 10 years and up to 25 years. The planned purchases are likely to provide support to the domestic bond market.
The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction about 600 billion yen of 30-year government bonds on Tuesday and around 2.5 trillion yen of five-year sovereign notes on Thursday.
Against a backdrop of lingering fiscal concerns in Japan, investor demand at the 30-year auction will be closely watched amid clear supply-demand improvement effects from repeated issuance reductions since last fiscal year, analysts at Barclays Securities Japan said.
China
All eyes are on China's inflation data on Thursday, which will be looked at to see how the reflation story is playing out as the impact of the Iran crisis pumps up prices but domestic demand remains weak.
Consumer price inflation is tipped to have remained at 1.2% on year, while producer price inflation is forecast to have risen to 4.0% from 3.9% last month, ANZ Research Asia economist Krystal Tan said.
The decline in oil prices following the Middle East ceasefire is beginning to push fuel-related prices lower, while the drag on food prices has eased as pork and vegetable prices have broadly stabilized.
DBS economists said that soft domestic demand continues to weigh on inflation momentum. With retail sales growth contracting for the first time since the pandemic in May and the property market remaining weak, income prospects remain subdued, they said.
Producer prices are expected to have edged higher, supported by a lower base effect despite falling oil prices, ANZ's Tan said.
The People's Bank of China is also set to announce June's foreign exchange reserves data on Tuesday.
New Zealand
Down Under, focus will be almost exclusively on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy meeting Wednesday.
Economists expect the central bank to kick off its tightening cycle by lifting the official cash rate 25 basis points higher. Some estimate that at 2.25% now, the OCR is around 75 basis points below a neutral setting that is neither restrictive nor stimulative for the economy.
A decision to raise interest rates would be contentious, given the overall fragile state of the economy and the fact that falling oil prices are easing pressure on the inflation outlook.
RBNZ Governor Anna Breman appears keen to flex her hawkish muscles though, with a message centered on elevated inflation, the need to maintain bank credibility and to drive prices lower.
Her comments on the longer-term horizon will be the main talking point. Breman might want to keep the door open to further hikes to show she's serious about getting inflation back on target.
Southeast Asia CPIs
The Philippines and Thailand are scheduled to release inflation data for June during the week. Inflation is likely to have cooled, but remained elevated in both countries as energy prices declined.
Fuel prices in Thailand have eased, although they remain well-above pre-conflict levels and higher than a year earlier, ANZ Research's Kausani Basak said.
In the Philippines, headline inflation likely cooled slightly to 6.7% in June, down from May's 6.8% increase, ANZ added.
Global crude oil prices have declined by over 20% in June compared to the end of May, which has helped to alleviate pressure on domestic fuel prices, ANZ said.
Malaysia
Bank Negara Malaysia is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.75% on Thursday, as inflation remains manageable.
The government's fuel subsidy program has shielded the economy from higher global energy prices, while a recent reduction in the price of subsidized diesel should provide further relief, Goldman Sachs analysts said.
ANZ's Tan said that a combination of resilient economic growth and gradually firmer inflation should give the central bank room to raise its policy rate later this year. ANZ's base case remains for a 25 basis-point rate hike in the second half.
Taiwan
On Tuesday, eyes will be on Taiwan's June consumer price data, which likely stayed elevated after inflation rose above the key 2% threshold for the first time in a year in May.
ANZ and Barclays economists expect to see last month's inflation at 2.13% and 2.4%, respectively. While oil prices dropped after the U.S. and Iran reached an initial peace agreement, a low base from last year is probably keeping inflation high.
The next few months' prints will be critical as Taiwan's central bank has tilted a little hawkish, even though it kept interest rates steady again in June. ANZ has penciled in a rate hike in September.
Taiwan is also due to release June merchandise trade data on Thursday.
The island likely maintained robust exports momentum due to the world's insatiable demand for AI tech hardware. Bank of America analysts said that price upswings and further volume growth amid the global AI infrastructure buildout should continue to support the island's tech exports.
Any references to days are in local times.
- Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 03, 2026 08:25 ET (12:25 GMT)
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