Gold and silver steady before NFP as payrolls risk caps rebound - Kitco AM Report

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(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are firmer ahead of the North American market open Wednesday, as traders covered shorts near major support while a firmer U.S. dollar and higher Treasury...

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At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,028.20 an ounce, up 0.54%, while spot silver was trading near $58.630, up 0.29% on the session.Gold’s early range was $3,959.40 to $4,036.40, keeping the metal above the late-June breakdown zone but still below the $4,100 area that would signal a cleaner recovery. Silver’s early range was $57.05 to $59.24, with the metal holding above its channel-floor support but still capped below $60.00.Positioning is now centered on Thursday’s June nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET before the July 3 market holiday. Private payrolls rose 98,000 in June, ahead of the 92,500 forecast but below May’s 122,000 gain, while broader consensus looks for the official payrolls report to slow toward the 100,000 to 115,000 area and for unemployment to edge up to 4.4%. That keeps the gold trade binary: a firm payrolls print would support the dollar, yields and Fed-hike pricing, while a softer print would give gold and silver more room to extend the pre-open rebound.The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as improving flow with unresolved control risk. Shipping through the waterway has resumed after the U.S.-Iran interim agreement, but Tehran is still pressing claims over approved routes, future passage fees and Revolutionary Guard instructions to ship operators. A foreign container ship ran aground Wednesday while using a route not approved by Iran, underlining that the issue is no longer outright closure but who controls transit rules. The current market impact is split: oil is steadier after the June collapse, gold retains a limited insurance bid and the inflation channel still matters because any renewed shipping shock would feed directly into Fed expectations.Traders are watching May metropolitan employment data at 10:00 a.m. ET, then Thursday’s June Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. ET ahead of the July 3 U.S. market holiday, and the next inflation prints on July 14. Thin pre-holiday liquidity could magnify the payrolls reaction across gold, silver, the dollar and the front end of the Treasury curve.The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $68.91 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $73.10. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,044.00 to $4,100.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,200.00 and then $4,370.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,900.00 and then $3,886.00. First resistance is seen at $4,044.00 and then at $4,100.00. First support is seen at $3,959.00 and then at $3,900.00.Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $58.83 to $60.41 area, with a move above that zone targeting $61.54 and then $64.25. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.13, with deeper downside targets at $56.50 and then $55.00. First resistance is seen at $58.83 and then at $60.41. Next support is seen at $57.13 and then at $56.50.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.45.2","shortVersion":"4.45.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2648545823","isCrawlerRequest":true}