The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
0742 GMT - Spanish energy major Repsol should continue to benefit from tight oil products markets and elevated refining margins into next year, RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria writes. Second-quarter margins will likely be around $22 a barrel, he says. The company's intention to keep its distribution framework of returning 30% to 40% of operating cash flow to shareholders is an encouraging sign, he adds. Shares rise 0.5% to 22.21 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0713 GMT - National Grid's $1.75 billion investment in U.S. integrated power solutions company Joulent makes strategic sense, Jefferies analyst Ahmed Farman writes. Joulent provides energy solutions for artificial-intelligence data centers. The deal gives the U.K. company exposure to the growing U.S. data-center sector and access to a multi-gigawatt pipeline, he adds. However, disclosure on the investment remains limited and the key project will only become free-cash-flow positive in the early 2030s, he writes. Shares fall 0.4% to 1,206.50 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0142 GMT - Brent crude is expected to trade in a softer range of $70-$85 a barrel in 2H, assuming the U.S.-Iran interim agreement holds, the Strait of Hormuz continues to remain open and no major conflict resumes, Public Investment Bank analyst Khairul Fahmi says in a note. He doesn't expect prices to return to prewar lows, as tanker traffic is normalizing gradually, some energy facilities still require repairs and inventories need to be rebuilt after recent drawdowns. Public IB maintains its overweight rating on Malaysia's oil and gas sector, pegging Hibiscus Petroleum and Dialog as its top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0106 GMT - Rising energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz prompt UBS to cut its 2026-27 oil-price forecasts. UBS now expects Brent crude to average $84 a barrel this year, down $9 a barrel from earlier. It also lowers its 2027 oil-price forecast to $75 a barrel, from $85 a barrel. "Lower geopolitical risk and quick rebound in flows have led to a steeper price decline than we had expected," UBS says. It expects prices to rebound slightly to $80 a barrel in 2H this year as floating storage in the Gulf normalizes and demand picks up. UBS also sees a higher risk premium as the path to normalization could remain bumpy. "The need to refill inventories should still support prices through 2027 but the required inventory rebuild is smaller than we previously expected at 1 billion barrels," UBS says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
0044 GMT - One thing to watch in Woodside Energy's 2Q production report: the extent of decline at the Sangomar oil field in Senegal. Macquarie says this could be the first quarter of material output falls at the asset. It is expecting quarterly production of 85,000 barrels of crude oil per day at Sangomar. That would be lower than the 99,000 barrels per day achieved in 1Q. At group level, Woodside likely produced 40.1 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2Q with revenue of US$3.67 billion, Macquarie says. It has a neutral call and A$30.00/share price target on Woodside, which is down 1.7% at A$27.93.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2351 GMT - Oil falls in early Asian trade on more signs of increased supply amid easing Middle East tensions. The supply has surged in recent weeks, ANZ Research analysts say. They cite a media report quoting a U.S. official as saying that American military support has helped boost oil flows to more than 10 million barrels a day. Also, "the U.S. and Iran arrived for peace talks in Doha, with U.S. negotiators saying progress in indirect talks with Iran had been made," the analysts say. "This eased concerns that a return to conflict between the two sides would disrupt the movement of oil through the Strait of Hormuz," they add. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.8% lower at $68.04 per barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
Lessons from the stifling of energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are likely to drive M&A activity in the oil and gas industry, says Macquarie. It expects producers of LNG to be particularly sought after. "Oil price normalization presents new opportunities for acquirers," Macquarie says. It notes Australia's Santos trades at a 14% discount to the mid-2025 offer from a consortium led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. unit XRG. "Any new approaches must be at a higher level now," Macquarie says. Santos is due to report 2Q metrics this month. Macquarie forecasts 2Q output of 23.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, slightly below consensus expectations for 24.3 million barrels. Quarterly revenue is projected to be US$1.55 billion. Santos ended Wednesday at A$7.19. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1934 GMT - Crude futures post back-to-back losses as ships move through the Strait of Hormuz while the U.S. and Iran continue talks though mediators. The market is focusing mostly on the supply side, while demand expectations are also weak for this year, says Marcus McGregor, head of commodities research at investment management firm Conning. If the agreement with Iran sticks and there are no more disruptions, inventories should rebuild rapidly, he says. "We entered this year thinking that we saw weakness in the second half, even before the situation took place in Iran. With things quieting down, I think we're back to that kind of narrative again, that we're looking at inventory builds in the second half of this year and definitely softer prices as we head into 2027." WTI settles down 1.3% at $68.58 and Brent falls 1.9% to $71.57. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1510 GMT - U.K. stocks have favorable valuations and provide diversification from AI investments, Helen Jewell, International CIO, fundamental equities at BlackRock says at their 2026 midyear outlook media roundtable. The U.K. equities market has stocks in the commodities sector, energy sector, and big banks which look attractive, she says. U.K. stocks look underpriced because they have been left out of the AI rally, Jewell says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1304 GMT - Oil futures are lower as the market removes some more risk premium with the U.S. and Iran continuing to pursue a deal and tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. "Physical market weakness, Brent's contango structure, rising exports from Iran and record Russian shipments point to improving global supplies," analysts at Kotak Neo say in a note. "Improving supply flows and expectations of a sizeable global surplus remain the dominant bearish drivers, while any disruption to Hormuz traffic or breakdown in diplomatic negotiations could quickly revive geopolitical risk premium and support crude prices." WTI is off 1.1% at $68.74 a barrel, and Brent is down 1.5% at $71.84 with the September contract moving to the front of the curve.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0940 GMT - BP shareholders and potential investors will need to decide whether sitting through continued upheaval and uncertainty is worth it, RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria writes after another senior executive intends to leave. Deputy CEO Carol Howle's planned departure adds to the list of changes at the top of the British energy major, he adds. BP's deleveraging story was clear and powerful when oil was priced above $90 a barrel, he adds. This helped distract from broader uncertainty and changes across the business, he says. These becomes a little tougher to ignore with oil prices at $73 a barrel, he says. BP's shares fall 1.8% to 458.45 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0917 GMT - BP faces the challenge as to whether there is sufficient depth across its management team to support its turnaround, RBC Capital Markets analyst Biraj Borkhataria writes after another senior executive departs. Deputy CEO Carol Howle's decision to step down is a "head scratcher" given she was only appointed to the position in April and was put in charge of the portfolio review and long-term strategy, the analysts write. She will be replaced as head of trading by Sam Skerry, who most recently served as head of M&A. BP's M&A track record under Skerry's leadership isn't one to be boasted about but its likely some of the value destructive deals were led by management, he writes. Shares fall 1.4% to 460.70 pence.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 02, 2026 04:20 ET (08:20 GMT)
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