The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0256 GMT - Bitcoin falls in early Asian trade, down 0.3% at $61,321.44. Bitcoin is falling amid accelerating ETF outflows and weak institutional participation, K33 Research says. Meanwhile, option traders are paying some of the highest premiums for downside protection since the 2022 bear market. "When hedging becomes this expensive, it's usually a sign that pessimism is already widespread," K33 adds. Still, weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data for June could ease concerns over further rate hikes, strengthening the case for bitcoin. Investors are also watching quarter-end portfolio rebalancing, which has historically supported ETF inflows after periods when bitcoin underperforms equities, K33 says.(jason.chau@wsj.com)
0246 GMT - Chinese automakers' local retail volumes could shrink despite some recovery in domestic electric-vehicle demand in June, say Macquarie Capital's Eugene Hsiao and Calvin Ye in a note. Auto retail volume declined around 20% on year in 1H, likely due to local demand weakness. They cut their 2026 forecast for domestic retail sales to 20.2 million units, implying a 15% drop from 2025, compared with a previous estimate of 22.7 million units. Macquarie also notes margin pressure from persistently high input costs could weigh on Chinese automakers. Still, exports are set to remain strong, which Macquarie expects to surge 38% this year to 7.9 million units. Macquarie's sector pecking order is led by Geely ahead of BYD, NIO, XPeng and Li Auto. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0239 GMT - The Singapore dollar strengthens slightly against its U.S. counterpart in Asia. The weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report released overnight has pared Fed rate-hike expectations, two strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a report. This has weighed on the greenback, they write. Based on technical analysis, two-way trades are likely for now, with slight risk for "downside retracement" of the U.S. dollar against the Singapore dollar, the strategists add. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% lower at 1.2911 Singapore dollars, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0225 GMT - Japan might be adopting new foreign-exchange intervention strategy, DBS Group Research's Philip Wee says in a commentary. The senior forex strategist notes rumors that Japan's Finance Ministry might shift to unannounced stealth currency interventions. Such interventions "could amplify volatility amid thin liquidity on today's Independence Day holiday in the U.S. bond and equity markets," Wee says. "Japan's new strategy appears to be targeted at shifting market psychology from skepticism to caution." The dollar is little changed at 161.13 yen, according to LSEG data. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0211 GMT - The market is still alert on risks of foreign-exchange intervention by Japanese authorities to prop up the yen, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a research report. On Thursday, "yen strengthened from 162.83 [per dollar] to as much as 160.64, before trading at 161.28 at the time of writing," the senior currency analyst notes. This was driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, together with suspected intervention by Japanese authorities, Wan writes. "With the key U.S. holidays upcoming and as such a period of low liquidity, coupled with U.S. data and nonfarm payrolls supportive of a weaker dollar in the near term, we would be quite wary of intervention risks in the near term." The dollar is 0.1% higher at 161.21 yen, LSEG data shows. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0208 GMT - The National Australia Bank has made "meaningful" upward revisions to its U.S. dollar projections across all major currencies, having earlier been hesitant to make changes due to the "fog of war." The key driver of the revisions is that the U.S. economy is proving much more resilient than anticipated, keeping inflation elevated and prompting a hawkish pivot by the Fed, NAB says. Still, NAB isn't yet forecasting that the Fed will lift rates, but it notes that the U.S. dollar's upswing since May has closely tracked the evolution of Fed policy expectations. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0142 GMT - Malaysia's Budget 2027 is expected to be 'selectively expansionary,' focusing on cost-of-living relief, targeted transfers, infrastructure delivery and faster state-level project execution ahead of the next general election, Public Investment Bank analyst Sabrina Edora says in a note. Domestic demand is expected to remain the main growth driver in 2H, supported by resilient consumption and investment. The analyst maintains her 2026 GDP growth estimate at 4.6%. She expects the next general election to have a limited impact on the 2026 growth trajectory, but markets will closely monitor fiscal policies and project execution. She cuts her 2026 inflation forecast to 2.1% from 2.4% following lower oil prices, this should allow Bank Negara to keep its policy rate at 2.75% through end-2026. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0108 GMT - The National Australia Bank has adopted a bearish outlook for the Australian dollar in 2027 based on a view that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut the official cash rate 75 bps starting in 2Q 2027. NAB now forecasts the Aussie dollar-U.S. dollar pair will end 2027 at 0.6700, from its previous 0.7000 expectation, but the view allows for it to trade down to at least 0.6500 at some point. If the RBA cuts rates next year and the Fed sits pat, the outlook for the Australian dollar looks increasingly ominous, NAB adds. The pair now trades at 0.6919. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0054 GMT - The Singapore central bank is likely to tighten its monetary policy in July, although it could be a close call, says Citi Research's Wei Zheng Kit in a note. Concerns have shifted to core inflation persistently staying above the implicit 1.5%-2% target, he says, with sustained food-services price increases a particular concern. The balance of risks likely suggests the current policy stance might be too accommodative, the economist says. The city-state's positive output gap--a metric that shows whether the economy is operating near its full capacity--has also likely widened since the last central-bank statement, he says.Still, the central bank could stand pat as the April tightening has likely provided the Monetary Authority of Singapore with some buffer, he says. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0020 GMT - Japanese stocks are lower in early trade as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict continues. Electronics and technology stocks are leading the declines. Kioxia Holdings is down 7.0% and SoftBank Group is 4.6% lower. The dollar is at 161.47 yen, down from Y162.25 as of Thursday's Tokyo stock market close, following disappointing U.S. jobs data. Investors are closely watching any progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average is down 1.0% at 68065.34. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
0018 GMT - The yen weakens against most other G-10 and Asian currencies on a possible technical correction. The yen strengthened notably overnight as weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report prompted traders to scale back Fed rate-hike expectations and unwind some long dollar positions, particularly against the yen. However, "with U.S. markets closed for the Independence day celebrations, currency liquidity will be thin, an ideal time [for intervention] to have a large impact on the market," CBA's Joseph Capurso says in a research report. "The MoF has surprised markets with interventions during public holidays," the head of Foreign Exchange, International & Geoeconomics notes. The dollar edges 0.2% higher to 161.48 yen, and the euro is 0.1% higher at 184.44 yen, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0015 GMT - The JGB yield curve steepens in early Tokyo trade amid some headwinds. The JGB curve has bear-steepened sharply this week on "concerns of a behind-the-curve BoJ and worries about [Japan's] fiscal outlook," two analysts at Barclays Securities Japan say in a research report. Hence, market participants are likely to continue waiting for details on fiscal spending, the analysts say, noting a possible Cabinet decision on the government's draft 'Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform'. The five-year JGB yield is down 1 bp at 1.920%; the 10-year yield is up 2 bps at 2.800% after earlier touching 2.810%, its highest intraday level since October 1996, according to data provider Quick. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 02, 2026 22:56 ET (02:56 GMT)
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