The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1529 ET - Crude futures recover early losses ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Prices are hovering near pre-conflict levels with market focus on the resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran talks. "While the U.S.-Iran process remains fragile and disputes over Hormuz administration and transit fees persist, we expect the MOU to hold and turn into a deal over the coming months as incentives to de-escalate outweigh the alternative for the U.S., Iran, and much of the Middle East region," Citi's Francesco Martoccia says in a note. Physical markets have weakened and inventories have drawn much less than expected, he adds. "We continue to recommend selling any summer rallies and forecast Brent reaching $60-$65/barrel by the turn of the year." WTI settles up 0.2% at $68.69 a barrel and Brent rises 0.3% to $71.80. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1528 ET - Lean hog futures settled higher for the third trading session out of the past four, according to data from FactSet. Hogs close up 1.6% to 98.6 cents a pound. Carcass cutout prices were reported as higher yesterday, as well as at midday today. In the midday report, the USDA says that average carcass cutout prices rose 53 cents a pound to $96.24 per cwt. Additionally, the USDA reported an uptick in weekly pork export sales today, with 37,600 metric tons sold for delivery in 2026. That's up 44% from the prior week. Live cattle futures fell 1.2% to $2.39025 a pound, even after the USDA reported a marketing-year high in export sales for the week. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1527 ET - U.S. natural gas futures end modestly lower heading into the long Independence Day weekend with little impact from an above-estimate inventory build. The 87 Bcf storage injection for last week was above the 64 Bcf five-year average, and bigger than the 81 Bcf estimate in a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Reaction was muted as prices remain supported by near-term heat and strong export demand, Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "Although temperature anomalies are expected to soften beyond the holiday weekend, power generation demand will likely remain strong in the weeks ahead as storage builds trend lower into peak summer." Nymex natural gas settles down 0.7% at $3.196/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1404 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by five this week to 445, which was up by 20 from a year ago and the most since the end of May 2025, oil services company Baker Hughes reports. The rig count has risen in nine of the 10 past weeks as higher crude oil prices encourage drilling. Even as flows from the Middle East return with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the need to refill inventories is expected to support demand in months ahead. Rigs directed at natural gas increased by one this week to 126, or 18 more than a year ago, according to Baker Hughes. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1145 ET - Agnico Eagle's mine suspension in Quebec will likely affect OR Royalties, since it owns a royalty position on the operations. OR owns a 5% net-smelter royalty on the Malartic mine where a wall movement forced the company to temporarily pause operations. "Based on AEM's updated guidance, we expect OR's 2026 GEOs will be reduced by 3.5-4.5% (or 3-4koz gold-equivalent ounces)," says TD Cowen's Derick Ma in a report. To make matters worse, the analyst says 2027 and 2028 production could also be negatively impact by about 8%, or 7,500 ounces, but Ma notes, "AEM is evaluating mitigating options." OR shares are down 2.9% at C$43.59. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1140 ET - Wheat futures have been leading the CBOT row crop complex higher in recent days, after a set of USDA reports released earlier this week showed less acres and smaller stocks than anticipated by the market. U.S. winter wheat production is generationally low, and issues with wheat crops elsewhere are supporting futures. "The international picture adds fuel," says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull in a note. Canada is reporting a 5.8% decrease in wheat production for 2026, while Russian farmers are being crimped by higher input costs. "Add lingering damage from the European heatwave and a U.S. balance sheet suddenly smaller than assumed, and wheat--the most shorted and most disparaged of the majors-- has the raw material for a short-covering rally," says Wiesemeyer. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1135 ET - Natural gas in underground storage increased by 87 billion cubic feet last week to 2,922 Bcf, expanding the surplus over the five-year average to its highest level since mid-January, according to data from the EIA. The injection was well above the 64 Bcf average for the week and larger than the 81 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. Stocks were 175 Bcf above the five-year average, compared with a 152 Bcf surplus the previous week. Nymex natural gas is down 1.9% at $3.158/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1115 ET - The dollar weakens against major currencies, including 1% versus the yen, following dismal U.S. payrolls data. The decline may ease the prospect of imminent intervention to prop up the Japanese currency, but at 161 per dollar, the yen remains a point of concern. An intervention would entail sales of dollars and other FX reserves by Japanese authorities, Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says. Treasurys could get in the mix, but not enough to push yields much higher. "The bigger question is will intervention even work," she says. Hathorn adds that past actions didn't have a lasting impact because "fundamentals hadn't changed as exchange rates ultimately follow interest-rate differentials and capital flows." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1052 ET - The withering heat hitting U.S. crop-growing areas is expected to subside within the next 36-48 hours, says Gary Sandlund of Futures International in a note. "The U.S. weather and oppressive heat will be gone...returning to normal and even slightly below normal temps thru July 15th now which is nearly perfect for corn pollination," says Sandlund. The National Weather Service had forecast yesterday that temperatures would stay above average in much of the Corn Belt over the next 6-10 days, which was supportive for grain futures. Grains are up again today, ahead of the long holiday weekend--although they're paring some overnight gains. CBOT corn is up 0.5%, soybeans rise 0.4%, and wheat climbs 1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1044 ET - Chinese buyers are rumored to be asking around about U.S. soybean exports, and traders say CBOT grain futures are getting a lift from the murmurs of Chinese interest. "Somewhat optimistic we'll see some bean buying from China as they did seem to follow the same strategy of putting on futures before any cash buying which we saw in their last shopping spree," says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. Soybeans are up 0.4%, while corn rises 0.5% and wheat climbs 1.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0957 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower but holding in their recent range as the market awaits weekly inventory data from the EIA due at 10:30 a.m. ET.Weather models are still "to the warm side of normal," but traders stay focused on storage, which is 5.7% above the five-year average, Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Analysts in a WSJ survey expect an 81 Bcf injection for last week that would extend the surplus to 6.2%. "Normally we only have about sixweeks left in A/C cooling power demand that traders view as pertinent, so the countdown is working against prices," Kissler adds.Nymex natural gas is down 1% at $3.187/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0949 ET - Volumes being traded on the CME for livestock are slow out of the gate, with the shortened week in observance of July 4th sending many traders to the sidelines early. Cattle and hogs are both showing weakness, cattle looking to continue to move lower and hogs seemingly unable to maintain a sustained rally. "The market continues to move in fits and starts in trying to end the 3-month downtrend," says the Hightower Report in a note about hog futures. "Upside follow-through has been like pulling teeth and that is an indication the market may not be quite ready to make a significant correction." Lean hogs are down 0.2% early, while live cattle slides 0.1% lower. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 02, 2026 16:15 ET (20:15 GMT)
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