The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0713 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise in early trade and the trend could continue throughout the day, Commerzbank's Hauke Siemssen says in a note. "Without a circuit breaker in sight and the U.S. out on holiday, the bearish dynamics could continue ahead of the weekend," the rates strategist says. "Long-end EGBs remain under pressure with the curve steepening from both sides," he says. The rates strategist points to the bearish dynamics with long-end Japanese government bonds under renewed pressure this week. Eurozone 10-year government bond yields rise by between 1.6 basis points and 2.6 basis points, with the 10-year German Bund yield up 2.1 basis points at 2.919%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0710 GMT - Japanese authorities could refrain from interventions to support the yen on Friday as some expect, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. Friday is a U.S. public holiday and liquidity will be thinner, he says. "While this would be a good time for another intervention--and of course, that can't be ruled out--the pressure for a genuine intervention is likely to be low as long as the dollar can hold steady at 161 yen today." The dollar last trades down 0.2% at 160.88 yen, having reached a two-week low of 160.51 earlier, LSEG data show. The yen is supported by another intervention warning from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and Thursday's weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0656 GMT - The Japanese yen rises to a two-week high against the dollar after Japan's finance minister delivered a fresh warning about potential interventions to support the currency. Satsuki Katayama said Friday that Japan stands ready to take "appropriate action at any time as needed." The comments fuel speculation that Japanese authorities could intervene as soon as Friday when there is reduced liquidity due to the U.S. public holiday. The yen is also supported by a weaker dollar after Thursday's softer-than-expected U.S. jobs data reduced rate rise expectations. The dollar falls to as low as 160.51 yen.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0647 GMT - Japanese government bonds are leading the global bond selloff, driven by quarter-opening seasonality and supply pressure, Societe Generale rates strategists say in a note. History suggests that long-end weakness may have further to run, particularly through the July auction cycle. At the same time, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's attempts to fiscally dominate monetary policy are colliding with solid fundamental data, they say. "PM's pressure keeps the front end anchored low, but the resulting distortion is spilling into the belly [intermediate segment of the curve] with behind the curve risk," they say. Societe Generale maintains a bearish view on the "belly". (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0638 GMT - Sustainable yen appreciation can't happen without the Japanese government's firm commitment to fiscal consolidation, says SMBC Nikko Securities strategist Makoto Noji. The recent widening gap between short- and long-term yields in Western bond markets suggests Japan has begun exporting its "bad" yield rises triggered by fiscal fears, he says. If the U.S. conducts a rate check like it did earlier this year, the yen's appreciation could accelerate, Noji says, adding that such U.S. action could be a signal that the U.S. is demanding that Japan improve its fiscal conditions. The dollar is last at 160.97 yen. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0637 GMT - Bitcoin rises after hitting a one-week high on Thursday following softer-than-forecast U.S. jobs data. Nonfarm payrolls rose 57,000 in June, well below the 115,000 forecast by economists in a WSJ survey, data showed Thursday. The data prompted markets to scale back expectations for interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve, supporting risk sentiment. Bitcoin is up 0.2% at $61,662 after reaching as high as $62,128 on Thursday, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0628 GMT - The dollar stays under pressure after weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data damped expectations of a rise in interest rates. Data Thursday showed American employers added 57,000 new jobs in June, well below the 115,000 forecast by economists in a WSJ survey, while prints for May and April were revised lower. "The payroll data support our view that the Federal Reserve will not hike rates this year," Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. The U.S. economy remains resilient but the jobs data argue against rate rises, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 100.686 after reaching a two-week low of 100.558 Thursday. Friday is a U.S. public holiday, meaning fewer traders and reduced liquidity. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0622 GMT - The U.S.'s June payroll data--with fewer jobs added than expected by analysts--supports Jefferies's view that the Federal Reserve won't hike interest rates this year, global economist Mohit Kumar says in a note. "[The] U.S. economy remains resilient but the payroll data is not hot enough to warrant a hike," he writes. Inflation data is likely to be more important than payroll data for Fed expectations in the coming months, he says. "But unless the inflation data surprises significantly to the upside, we see the payroll data giving a green light for our preferred trades over the coming weeks--long equities, long credit and long front-end rates." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0618 GMT - The most notable shift in the fixed-income market during the first half of 2026 is the resurgence of an "inflation-on" paradigm, Federated Hermes's Karen Manna says in a note. Historically, geopolitical conflicts have triggered a flight to quality and driven up U.S. Treasurys, thereby pushing yields down, the senior fixed-income portfolio manager says. "However, following the outbreak of the conflict involving Iran, inflation concerns have dominated the market, driving yields higher--particularly at the short end of the curve," she writes. Consequently, market expectations have shifted drastically: Instead of the more than two rate cuts originally priced in, the possibility of one or even two rate increases is now being discussed, she says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0605 GMT - The U.S. employment report for June takes some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in the near term, Janus Henderson Investors' Bradford Smith writes in a note. That said, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh commented at his first press conference that jobs data only becomes meaningful after the third revision and by then becomes "echoes of history," the portfolio manager notes. With oil-price inflation moderating, some softness on the jobs front will likely keep the Fed on hold, at least for the next meeting, Smith says. The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, fewer than the 115,000 expected by analysts in The Wall Street Journal's poll. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0602 GMT - Thailand's consumer prices likely rose 2.70% on year in June, slightly lower than the 2.79% increase in May, according to the median forecast of five economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Headline inflation could have cooled due to easing global and domestic energy price pressures, after the de-escalation of the U.S.-Iran war, DBS economists say in a report. The Bank of Thailand is expected to continue looking through the transitory, supply-side-driven increase in inflation, with little impetus to adjust interest rates amid uneven and low economic growth, DBS adds. The CPI data are due Monday.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0553 GMT - A small fall in Australian house prices over recent months has fueled fears that a substantial retreat now looms in the next year. National average prices are down around 1% from their highs after a 26% surge over the prior three years, says Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital. But the downturn likely has further to go reflecting the impact of rate hikes, low confidence, poor affordability and moves to end investor property tax concessions, he adds. AMP expects a 2% fall in property prices this calendar year and a 6% fall over the next 12 months, resulting in a top to bottom fall of around 7%, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 03, 2026 03:14 ET (07:14 GMT)
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