The latest Market Talks covering Energy and Utilities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
1126 ET - The province of Alberta shows an accelerated power buildout and large new data center loads, TD Cowen's John Mould says. Pembina Pipeline's final investment decision on the Greenlight Electricity Centre highlights "further progress for the broader data center opportunity." Mould notes investors are now looking for an end-customer final investment decision and clarity on ramp-up timing. Despite this, Greenlight power plant's C$4.3 million per megawatt capital cost "highlights the value of existing steel in the ground," particularly TransAlta's underutilized coal-to-gas fleet. He also points to Capital Power's 250 megawatt offtake agreement beginning in 2028, which could benefit from tightening Alberta power pricing. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
0904 ET- Alberta's new data-center and power market frameworks create meaningful upside for TransAlta and Capital Power, with TransAlta positioned to benefit the most. CIBC's Mark Jarvi notes the Alberta Electric System Operator Phase 2a rules and new "bridging options," which enable data centers to come online faster and allow underused assets to serve demand. The analyst notes this shift "accelerates timelines and shifts part of the opportunity toward earlier, capital-light monetization," especially for TransAlta given the scale of its coal-to-gas fleet. He points to TransAlta's identified capacity that could be repositioned and says tightening Alberta power pricing supports both companies. Jarvi sees "material upside" for both TransAlta and Capital Power as data center commitments develop. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
0834 ET - Portugal's Galp stands out as the most defensive mid-major European energy stock, Morgan Stanley analysts write as they lower their commodity price forecasts. They upgrade Galp to overweight from equalweight. Galp has high-quality upstream and downstream assets and can generate cash in a weaker oil price environment, they write. Additionally, it has a lighter pipeline of projects that require capital expenditure, they say. The stock has near-term catalysts including a potential merger with Spanish refiner Moeve, they write. Shares rise 1.7% to 19.045 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0704 ET- Algonquin Power is building a regulatory momentum that is setting the course for a "back-to-basics" turnaround. National Bank of Canada's Baltej Sidhu trims his estimates slightly to reflect timing adjustments, but says that the quarter was active on the regulatory front, with new rate filings across New York Water, Empire Electric, and EnergyNorth Gas. Sidhu notes these proceedings now represent around $250 million in pending revenue requests, supporting Algonquin's focus on timely capital recovery and improved return on equity. Farther on the horizon, Sidhu says he sees "attractive growth opportunities through AQN's regulated capital program, including transmission investment and data center-related load growth." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
0119 ET - Sembcorp Industries' 1H result is likely to be weighed by the Middle East conflict driving up energy prices and a challenging operating environment in India, says Citi analyst Luis Hilado in a note. The U.S.-Iran conflict pushed upstream gas suppliers to raise prices, resulting in margin pressure for the Singapore energy and urban solutions provider, he says. Weather disruption and currency weakness are also dragging down Sembcorp's renewables business in India, he says. He cuts his 2026-2028 recurring and reported profit projections by 6%-11% and 10%-14%, respectively. Citi adds a negative 30-day catalyst watch on Sembcorp's shares and cuts its target price to 6.92 Singapore dollars from S$7.02. It retains its buy rating. Shares drop 3.7% to S$5.96. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
2227 ET - The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the risk of outright liquefied natural gas supply loss in the world market, but LNG shipping flows are recovering much more slowly than crude oil, likely leaving export capacity constrained well into 3Q, says Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ. A strengthening El Nino is emerging as the key demand-side risk, with hotter temperatures and lower hydroelectric output likely to boost LNG consumption across Asia. The collision of delayed LNG trade normalization and stronger Asian demand is likely to intensify competition for cargoes, keeping global gas markets structurally tight. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
2208 ET - Malaysia's corporate earnings growth is expected to slow in 2H as rising costs and weaker sales weigh on profitability, Public Investment Bank analyst Eltricia Foong and team say in a note. While lasting peace in the Middle east remains uncertain, even if the conflict ends, oil and gas producers could take at least six months to fully restore supplies, they say. They adopt a more conservative stance on bank earnings, citing concerns that escalating cost pressures could weaken consumer and business confidence and lead to a deterioration in asset quality. Public IB cuts its end-2026 target for Malaysia's benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index to 1680 from 1730 to factor in lower earnings growth estimates. CIMB, Tenaga Nasional, IHH Healthcare and Gamuda are among its top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
1529 ET - Crude futures recover early losses ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Prices are hovering near pre-conflict levels with market focus on the resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran talks. "While the U.S.-Iran process remains fragile and disputes over Hormuz administration and transit fees persist, we expect the MOU to hold and turn into a deal over the coming months as incentives to de-escalate outweigh the alternative for the U.S., Iran, and much of the Middle East region," Citi's Francesco Martoccia says in a note. Physical markets have weakened and inventories have drawn much less than expected, he adds. "We continue to recommend selling any summer rallies and forecast Brent reaching $60-$65/barrel by the turn of the year." WTI settles up 0.2% at $68.69 a barrel and Brent rises 0.3% to $71.80. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1404 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by five this week to 445, which was up by 20 from a year ago and the most since the end of May 2025, oil services company Baker Hughes reports. The rig count has risen in nine of the 10 past weeks as higher crude oil prices encourage drilling. Even as flows from the Middle East return with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the need to refill inventories is expected to support demand in months ahead. Rigs directed at natural gas increased by one this week to 126, or 18 more than a year ago, according to Baker Hughes. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 03, 2026 12:20 ET (16:20 GMT)
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