European Midday Briefing: Gold Rises, Oil Steady as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Ease

Dow Jones07-03 18:07

MARKET WRAPS

Stocks:

European indexes were mixed on Friday as tech stocks rebounded and industrials gained.

London's miners were up after a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report eased expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates, pushing gold prices up.

Inflation data is likely to be more important

than payroll data for Fed expectations in the coming months, Jefferies said.

Oil prices were broadly stable

as markets moved toward a short-term supply glut.

"The recovery in Gulf exports, together with rising oil volumes of Iranian oil held offshore, continues to add to short-term supply," MUFG said.

First Abu Dhabi Bank said the dominant theme across global markets next week will again likely be the evolving narrative around the Iran war and the trajectory of the still tenuous U.S.-Iran peace talks.

"The technical talks in Qatar are ongoing , with markets taking an increasingly optimistic view on a permanent ceasefire and the restoration of Strait of Hormuz shipping flows," it added.

For the day ahead, central bank chiefs Christine Lagarde and Andrew Bailey are set to speak at an economic forum in Aix-en-Provence, France.

Stocks to watch

Boliden 's potential acquisition of Votorantim's 64.68% stake in Nexa Resources has some logic, Berenberg said. It would give Swedish miner Boliden an even larger position in the global zinc market and could offer some arbitrage opportunities in other metals.

Maersk

still has some short-term positive catalysts, despite midterm supply concerns, Citi said. The Danish shipping company earlier this week upgraded its full-year EBIT guidance to $2 billion-$4 billion and Ebitda guidance to $8 billion-$10 billion.

Rheinmetall 's 2030 guidance probably needs a reset, J.P. Morgan said. The German defense company cut its 2026 guidance due to the cancellation of a big German contract it expected to win, and J.P. Morgan sees risks beyond.

Wizz Air

investors are expected to concentrate on summer bookings, progress on strategic initiatives and the latest views on higher near-term capacity growth, J.P.Morgan said. The budget airline is redesigning its network and cutting back from higher-cost airports.

U.S. Markets:

U.S. financial markets are closed for the Fourth of July holiday. Regular trading will resume on Monday, July 7.

Forex:

The euro rose.

The currency's modest rise against the dollar after Thursday's weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data highlights the lack of a convincing positive narrative for the single currency, ING said.

The dollar stayed under pressure

after weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls data damped expectations of a rise in interest rates.

Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields rose

in early trade and the trend could continue throughout the day, Commerzbank said.

Societe Generale said Eurozone government bond yield spreads continued to widen

this week, driven by the French OAT-German Bund yield spread and supply pressure.

Investors could consider buying 10-year Treasurys on dips, TD Securities said. Uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's policy path

will likely keep 10-year Treasury yields in the 4.25%-4.66% range in the near term.

Energy:

Brent crude rose

0.3%, while WTI contracts for August delivery were flat. Oil prompt spreads are in contango signaling ample near-term supply, MUFG said.

Metals:

Gold was poised to end a volatile week

on the front foot after cooler-than-expected U.S. jobs data eased investors' rate-hike expectations. The precious metal was also supported by central banks returning to the market as buyers in May, ING said.

Base metals

Base metals rose in early trade. The sector found support after the U.S. jobs report triggered a selloff in the dollar, ANZ Research said.

Iron

Iron ore fell in early trade amid record-high inventories sitting at Chinese ports, ANZ Research said.

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 03, 2026 06:07 ET (10:07 GMT)

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