The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1132 ET - Even with bitcoin pushing over the $60,000 mark, outflows from bitcoin ETFs are continuing. According to data from CoinGlass, net ETF outflows actually rose from the prior day yesterday, up to $296 million from $222.6 million previously. But sentiment is turning warmer for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general as 3Q begins. CoinMarketCap's "Fear and Greed Index" poked out from "extreme fear", rising to a reading of 22 out-of 100, which is in "fear" territory. "The first two days of 3Q tell a different story," says CoinMarketCap in a separate note. Bitcoin is up 2.5% to $61,592, ethereum rises 5.1% to $1,699, XRP climbs 3.1% to $1.09, and solana advances 4.3% to $80.65. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1115 ET - The dollar weakens against major currencies, including 1% versus the yen, following dismal U.S. payrolls data. The decline may ease the prospect of imminent intervention to prop up the Japanese currency, but at 161 per dollar, the yen remains a point of concern. An intervention would entail sales of dollars and other FX reserves by Japanese authorities, Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says. Treasurys could get in the mix, but not enough to push yields much higher. "The bigger question is will intervention even work," she says. Hathorn adds that past actions didn't have a lasting impact because "fundamentals hadn't changed as exchange rates ultimately follow interest-rate differentials and capital flows." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
11:11 Evercore ISI says a "back-to-normal employment report keeps the Fed focus on inflation." The economists believe the Fed will look at the weaker June jobs report as bringing hiring data back into better alignment after prior months where payrolls were surprisingly strong. "Some argue that this report makes rate hikes this year significantly less likely. We do not really agree," they say. Santander's Stephen Stanley concurs. "It will be the inflation data that determine the FOMC's course of action," he says. He thinks the June jobs report may change the perception of Fed officials "ever so slightly," but thinks most policymakers regard the labor market as stable. "There was a substantial kneejerk reaction in financial markets, including scaling back the odds of rate hikes this year. I view the latter as an improper response to this release." (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1105 ET - Short-dated quality credit offers attractive yields, making it a good investment opportunity, UBS Global Wealth Management strategists say in a note. Markets seem to be overpricing the possibility of interest-rate rises by major central banks, meaning yields are likely to fall over the coming months, the strategists say. "We believe short- to medium-maturity quality bonds offer an appealing risk-return profile," they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1101 ET - A smaller-than-expected showing in June job creation is giving beleaguered cryptocurrencies fresh support today, in hopes that any near-term Fed rate hikes could be delayed. Bitcoin is up 2.7% to $61,689, and other cryptocurrencies are following suit. Ethereum is back above $1,700 for the first time in over a week, rising 5.4% to $1,705. Some traders are hopeful that the worst is over for ethereum this year. "Bulls are hoping the $1,500 level can continue to act as support," says Bret Kenwell of eToro in a note. "The overall trend has been bearish for ethereum, but if momentum can shift bullish in the coming days and weeks, a larger rebound could follow." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1051 ET - Emerging-market bonds look attractive as they are likely to benefit from global economic growth, UBS Global Wealth Management strategists say in a note. Emerging-market economies also have a wealth of commodities which should support performance, the strategists say. Emerging-market bonds offer diversification and favorable yields, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1048 ET - Mexican peso stability after the U.S. declined to renew the USMCA, sending the trade pact into a process of annual reviews, shows the decision was widely expected, HSBC Mexico's chief economist José Carlos Sánchez says in a note. The timeliness and clarity of the U.S. statement are ultimately positive for the peso, he says. Althougha review process is less ideal than a "clean" renewal, that was never a realistic expectation and "we still see Mexico benefiting from greater access to the U.S. economy than other emerging market peers." The peso trades at 17.47 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 17.56 yesterday.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1038 ET - Odds of an interest rate increase by the Fed decline in futures markets as slower-than-expected job creation in June gives the central bank fewer reasons to be hawkish. Investors are pricing in 18% odds of a July hike, down from 29% yesterday, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Odds of at least one cut by year end fall to 76% from 83%. The BLS reports 57,000 new jobs in June, while economists surveyed by WSJ expected 115,000. "The combination of more tepid data on the labor market and the sharp decline in oil prices should reduce the likelihood of rate hikes from the Fed," AllianceBernstein's Eric Winograd writes. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1016 ET - The dollar's pullback after Thursday's weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls print could have further to go, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. The Federal Reserve is likely to leave interest rates unchanged, defying expectations for rate increases, they say. Furthermore, Monex doesn't share market optimism that AI will generate a substantial, immediate boost in activity. This leaves markets primed for disappointment, with the dollar also set to suffer, the analysts say. The DXY dollar index falls 0.7% to 100.708 after reaching a two-week low of 100.558 shortly after the jobs data, according to LSEG, and Monex expects the DXY to fall to 98.1 over the next 12 months. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0951 ET - The June jobs report changes the labor-market story, says Sung Won Sohn, Chief Economist at SS Economics. "The economy is not shedding jobs in a recessionary way, but the hiring engine is sputtering. Payroll growth is slower, revisions are negative, labor-force participation has fallen, leisure and hospitality is weakening, and job gains remain heavily dependent on health care and social assistance," he says. The June numbers show that this is no longer a booming labor market, Sohn say. "It is a 'low-hire, low-fire' economy with less margin for error. The Fed is now less likely to hike soon, the dollar has weakened on that expectation, and investors will increasingly ask if the cooling trend will continue." (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
0927 ET - The government says leisure and hospitality employment declined by 61,000 in June, reflecting weaker than usual seasonal hiring. That contrasts sharply with the 70,000 gain in May's report. "It looks like the World Cup hiring spree was a one-month phenomenon in May," according to Brian Bethune of the Boston College Economics department. Thus far in 2026, the BLS says employment in leisure and hospitality has shown little net change. Elsewhere in the report, employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in June with a rise of 36,000. The industry has added 172,000 jobs since a recent low in October 2025. Employment in health care continued its upward trend, with a rise of 22,000, but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
0922 ET - Slower-than-expected U.S. job creation in June supports an increase in demand for gold, Petros Pantzari, from brokerage firm Monaxa, writes. Payrolls were reported at 57,000, lower than WSJ consensus forecast of 115,000. Treasury yields and the dollar slipped on the news, while gold futures are up 2%. "Gold is moving higher because the weak U.S. jobs report has reduced the fear of another Fed rate increase," Pantzari says. He adds the data gives traders a reason to believe the Fed may stay on hold "or even move closer to rate cuts" if labor markets weaken further. That would push down yields, undermining the dollar, "both supportive for gold," Pantzari says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 02, 2026 11:33 ET (15:33 GMT)
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