The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1715 ET - Rising demand for natural gas and tighter supply of the fuel in the U.S. will likely pressure the commodity's Henry Hub benchmark prices in coming years, according to market watcher Wood Mackenzie. "The conditions that kept Henry Hub between $2 to $4 [per million British thermal units] for the best part of a decade are no longer...at full force," the energy-focused consulting firm says. It cites surging power consumption from data centers running artificial-intelligence systems and an expansion in U.S. capacity to export liquefied natural gas. Meanwhile, natural gas produced alongside crude oil at "near-zero marginal cost" will likely become scarcer as oilfields mature, the firm adds. "Associated gas accounted for roughly half of all U.S. gas supply growth over the past decade. Over the next 10 years, that share is expected to fall below 20%." (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)
1529 ET - Crude futures recover early losses ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday. Prices are hovering near pre-conflict levels with market focus on the resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran talks. "While the U.S.-Iran process remains fragile and disputes over Hormuz administration and transit fees persist, we expect the MOU to hold and turn into a deal over the coming months as incentives to de-escalate outweigh the alternative for the U.S., Iran, and much of the Middle East region," Citi's Francesco Martoccia says in a note. Physical markets have weakened and inventories have drawn much less than expected, he adds. "We continue to recommend selling any summer rallies and forecast Brent reaching $60-$65/barrel by the turn of the year." WTI settles up 0.2% at $68.69 a barrel and Brent rises 0.3% to $71.80. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1527 ET - U.S. natural gas futures end modestly lower heading into the long Independence Day weekend with little impact from an above-estimate inventory build. The 87 Bcf storage injection for last week was above the 64 Bcf five-year average, and bigger than the 81 Bcf estimate in a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Reaction was muted as prices remain supported by near-term heat and strong export demand, Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "Although temperature anomalies are expected to soften beyond the holiday weekend, power generation demand will likely remain strong in the weeks ahead as storage builds trend lower into peak summer." Nymex natural gas settles down 0.7% at $3.196/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1404 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. rose by five this week to 445, which was up by 20 from a year ago and the most since the end of May 2025, oil services company Baker Hughes reports. The rig count has risen in nine of the 10 past weeks as higher crude oil prices encourage drilling. Even as flows from the Middle East return with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the need to refill inventories is expected to support demand in months ahead. Rigs directed at natural gas increased by one this week to 126, or 18 more than a year ago, according to Baker Hughes. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1135 ET - Natural gas in underground storage increased by 87 billion cubic feet last week to 2,922 Bcf, expanding the surplus over the five-year average to its highest level since mid-January, according to data from the EIA. The injection was well above the 64 Bcf average for the week and larger than the 81 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. Stocks were 175 Bcf above the five-year average, compared with a 152 Bcf surplus the previous week. Nymex natural gas is down 1.9% at $3.158/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1009 ET - Qatar stocks lead most major Gulf markets lower on Thursday. Limited liquidity in the market, especially in terms of weaker trading turnover, is weighing on Qatar stocks, says Bijoy Joy, head of equities at QIC Asset Management. Still, the longer-term outlook remains positive given the country's importance as a major LNG exporter, he says. Qatar's QE Index falls 0.8%; the Dubai Financial Market General Index and Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index each lose 0.3%, while Abu Dhabi's benchmark index rises 0.2%. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0957 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are lower but holding in their recent range as the market awaits weekly inventory data from the EIA due at 10:30 a.m. ET.Weather models are still "to the warm side of normal," but traders stay focused on storage, which is 5.7% above the five-year average, Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. Analysts in a WSJ survey expect an 81 Bcf injection for last week that would extend the surplus to 6.2%. "Normally we only have about sixweeks left in A/C cooling power demand that traders view as pertinent, so the countdown is working against prices," Kissler adds.Nymex natural gas is down 1% at $3.187/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0913 ET - Oil futures are trading around their pre-conflict levels as flows continue through the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S.-Iran negotiation process continues. "The market seems to be clinging tightly to the hypothesis that the war in the Middle East cannot last long, and the optimistic statements from yesterday's negotiations reinforced this narrative," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. But the picture is more complex and can shift suddenly, he adds. Without progress over Iran's nuclear program and an agreement about Iran's proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, "the risks of escalation remain high, and we could return to war again, throwing away all the diplomatic efforts that currently bring hope to the market." WTI is down 1.3% at $67.68 a barrel and Brent is off 1.2% at $70.72.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0851 ET - Plans to rebalance the U.K.'s industrial economy should aim to support areas where the strongest output can be achieved, Hugo Bessis at Oxford Economics says in a note. Andy Burnham, the likely contender to replace Keir Starmer as U.K. prime minister, recently outlined plans for stronger public intervention in the economy and deeper devolution of power. This drive for "good growth in every postcode" gives fresh impetus for U.K. industry, but should be targeted in places with the strongest potential to drive growth, such as London, Reading, Cambridge, and Manchester, Bessis says. "Indeed, good growth in every postcode should be better defined as ensuring prosperity and opportunity can reach everywhere, as opposed to economic activity itself being everywhere," he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0554 ET - European energy companies will mostly keep their quarterly distributions unchanged, UBS analyst Joshua Stone writes. Britain's BP should hike its dividend 4% compared to the prior quarter, he writes. British peer Shell is expected to maintain its $3 billion quarterly buyback, while France's TotalEnergies should maintain its $1.5 billion share buyback program, he says. Spain's Repsol, which said in February that it would repurchase 350 million euros of shares over the first half of 2026, is also expected to keep the pace of its buyback, he adds. BP shares rise 0.6% to 458.45 pence. Shell is up 0.2% to 2,879.50 pence. TotalEnergies rises 0.15% to 66.02 euros. Repsol is up 1.2% to 22.39 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0513 ET - The International Energy Agency approved Nigeria to join as an association country, expanding its ties with one of Africa's largest oil producers, the Paris-based organization says. "Nigeria is a major producer of oil and natural gas and is one of the continent's most dynamic renewable energy markets," the agency says. According to the IEA's latest monthly report, Nigeria's crude oil production averaged 1.47 million barrels a day in May. The IEA has 32 member countries, all of which are also part of the OECD, while its association program allows it to work more closely with selected emerging economies. Nigeria is not a member of the OECD. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0504 ET - Second-quarter results from Europe's energy companies should reflect strong refining margins, UBS analyst Joshua Stone writes. Repsol, Galp and OMV are set to be key beneficiaries, Stone says. The bank's refining margin indicator for Europe jumped 70% on quarter to an average of $25 a barrel, he writes. Margins are likely to remain elevated over the near term given the need to repair and restart refineries in the Middle East, he adds. Additionally, wider crude spreads and continued outages in Russia support the outlook, he says. Spain's Repsol rises 1% to 22.33 euros. Portugal's Galp rises 0.2% to 18.645 euros. Austria's OMV rises 2.5% to 56.20 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 02, 2026 17:16 ET (21:16 GMT)
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