Gold ETFs Eye Comeback as Oil Crash Eases Inflation Fears

Benzinga_recent_news03:39

And, after struggling for much of 2026 as investors priced in additional Fed tightening, bullion is showing signs of a rebound as markets begin to unwind those hawkish expectations. These trends are ...

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ETFs back on investors’ radars.\n      • SPDR Gold Shares stock is holding steady today. What’s the outlook for GLD shares?\nThe U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, far below economists’ estimates of 115,000, prompting traders to sharply reduce expectations for another Fed rate hike.\nThe Cleveland Fed’s inflation nowcast also points to negative month-over-month headline inflation readings for both June and July, strengthening the case that price pressures may be easing faster than previously expected.\nThe broader hawkish narrative has not disappeared. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of a rate hike in September has risen to around 56.7% from around 37.8% a month ago. The market seems to be mulling whether additional hikes beyond September or into year-end will materialize because of oil-driven disinflation and weaker labor data.\nLower interest-rate expectations generally benefit gold because the metal offers no yield. When bond yields fall or are expected to decline, the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, making the asset more attractive relative to interest-bearing investments. So this remains a concern, given the rising odds of a rate hike.\nThe rally received an additional boost from currency markets. Because gold is priced in U.S. dollars, a weaker greenback makes bullion less expensive for overseas buyers, often increasing global demand and supporting prices.\nThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has lost momentum in recent sessions, with less than 1% return over the past month, making dollar-denominated gold cheaper for overseas buyers and supporting global demand.\nAnalysts say the combination of softer employment data and a weaker dollar has created a favorable macro backdrop for precious metals after several weeks of pressure from expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates.\nThe improving macro backdrop is drawing renewed attention to physically backed gold ETFs that closely track the price of bullion.\nWhile the latest economic data have improved sentiment, the next major catalysts for gold ETFs will be the June CPI report and additional Federal Reserve commentary.\nThe durability of the rebound will largely depend on whether the recent disinflation trend extends beyond energy prices. Core inflation remains elevated, meaning any upside surprise in CPI could quickly revive expectations for additional Fed tightening and pressure gold ETFs once again.\nConversely, if inflation continues to cool and markets further unwind their hawkish positioning, gold ETFs could extend their recovery after a difficult first half of the year.\nPhoto: Shutterstock\nThis content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.45.2","shortVersion":"4.45.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2649267433","isCrawlerRequest":true}