The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0913 GMT - Thailand's headline inflation is forecast to peak at around 4.4% in 1Q 2027, HSBC economists say in a research report. Inflation eased to 2.42% in June from May's 2.79% due to lower gasoline and diesel retail prices. June was also the third straight month that inflation was within the Bank of Thailand's 1%-3% target range. However, inflation is expected to rise above the BOT's target range in 2H, partly due to the El Nino season. HSBC expects inflation to ease back below 2.0% as early as 2Q 2027 as base effects fade. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0902 GMT - There may be more upside surprises for China's real estate market in 2H, say HSBC Global Research analysts in a note. June sales were modest but the number of companies delivering sales growth expanded to China Overseas Land and Investment, China Resources Land and Jinmao in the first half of 2026, from only Jinmao in 2025, they say. Improving fundamentals may boost market sentiment and investors should focus on key positives for the months ahead after the share-price correction, including an easier sales base comparison in 2H, land sales picking up and continued demand for high-end projects, HSBC says. Secondary market activity also remains resilient, supporting liquidity and signaling steady underlying demand, the bank adds. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0901 GMT - The Bank of Japan could accelerate interest rate rises, potentially supporting the yen, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. Japan's rate market looks underpriced for further tightening, he says. "We believe that the BOJ will increasingly take that policy needs to be tightened again sooner to address upside inflation risks." MUFG expects the policy rate to reach 1.50% by January 2027 from 1.00% currently with the next hike in September. LSEG data show just four basis points of rate rises priced for September. A faster pace of tightening would help address concerns the BOJ is constrained by fears over the burden of higher rates on servicing government debt, he says. The dollar rises 0.5% to 162.24 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0856 GMT - Denmark's central bank could intervene further to support the Danish krone after taking action in June for the first time in more than three years, Danske Bank's August Hyldgaard says in a note. Data Thursday showed Danmarks Nationalbank bought 0.7 billion kroner in net terms on the market in defending its peg to the euro. History suggests the central bank reacts according to the circumstances that call for extended interventions, possibly in the area of 50 billion kroner, Hyldgaard says. Danske expects the central bank to cap the euro at 7.4758 kroner in the short term. The euro trades flat at 7.4746 kroner, having reached an 11-year high of 7.4759 on June 25, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0851 GMT - Singapore's retail sales growth momentum is likely to ease in 2H, as mounting economic headwinds could temper consumer spending, RHB Bank's group chief economist Barnabas Gan says in a report. Global geopolitical uncertainties are expected to weigh on consumer and business confidence, leading to more cautious spending on non-essential items such as fashion and recreational products. Elevated fuel and transport costs could also feed through gradually into broader consumer prices, pushing up inflation and affecting consumers' purchasing power. RHB maintains Singapore's 2026 retail sales growth forecast at 3.0%.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0834 GMT - Resilience in emerging-market fixed income during the Iran conflict has confirmed Generali Investments' long-held positive view, senior EM strategist Guillaume Tresca says in a note. Generali Investments continues to see value in local debt. It offers pro-cyclical exposure to a still-positive EM macroeconomic backdrop, with resilient economic activity and minimal growth revisions following the Iran conflict, he says. "Valuations look compelling," he says, adding that EM rates still offer attractive carry and real yield buffers, and markets should further reduce rate-hike expectations established in the early stage of the Iran conflict. Technicals are supportive for local debt as well, with foreign ownership remaining low by historical standards, while renewed inflows are building up, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - Evidence that the eurozone economy held up better than feared in the second quarter is a positive development for the euro, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. Last week's stronger-than-expected industrial production data for Spain and France prompted MUFG to raise its second-quarter eurozone growth forecast to 0.25% from a previous expectation of near-stagnation, he says. "In addition, a faster-than-expected reversal of the energy price shock should improve investor sentiment towards both the euro-area economy and the euro over the remainder of this year." The European Central Bank could raise interest rates again in September even though inflationary risks have eased, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1422 and MUFG expects it to rise back towards $1.18. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0754 GMT - Singapore's retail sales in the coming months should be supported by improving consumer confidence and easing labor-market risks, DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng says in a note. This comes as global economic uncertainty eases amid de-escalating tensions in the Middle East. Retail sales extended their growth for the fourth straight month in May, but cooled to 3.0% on year, down from April's 5.4%. Government support measures should also help to boost consumer spending, especially on essential items at supermarkets. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0750 GMT - Japanese authorities could still intervene to shore up the yen later this month, after refraining from highly anticipated action on Friday, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The dollar is already back above 162 yen after a no-show from Japanese authorities in U.S. holiday-thinned conditions on Friday, he says. "This could be a reminder that Tokyo wants to use its finite foreign exchange reserves cautiously." The next window for interventions could be July 16-17 ahead of the next public holiday in Japan on July 20. The dollar rises 0.5% to 162.21 yen, having briefly reached a two-week low of 160.51 Friday. The dollar hit a 40-year high of 162.83 yen on Wednesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0745 GMT - Asia-Pacific's economic growth and need for flexible financing are likely to sustain strong private-credit demand, says Moody's Ratings in a note. Strong regional growth, supported by factors such as young demographics and growing consumption, will continue to increase financing needs across various sectors, including digital infrastructure and real estate, the analysts say. While private credit assets under management in Asia-Pacific appears to have stalled at around $80 billion in dollar terms over 2022-2025, Moody's says this is largely due to local currencies depreciating against the greenback. "We expect APAC private credit AUM to continue growing faster than that in the U.S. and Europe" in local currency terms, although the APAC market will remain much smaller than the U.S. and Europe, Moody's adds. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0744 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% for the rest of the year, with inflation expected to remain contained, Goldman Sachs economists say in a note. Headline inflation cooled to 2.42% in June from May's 2.79%, driven by lower fuel prices. Thailand's central bank has since April maintained that headline inflation is unlikely to be broad-based or persistent, suggesting that it is willing to look through the temporary supply-side shock. "Today's sharper-than-expected disinflation should further reinforce the BOT's assessment," the economists say. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0736 GMT - Gold futures rise after posting their first weekly gain since May, as weaker U.S. jobs data and lower oil prices reduced expectations of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The sharp drop in crude prices--driven by the recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+'s decision to hike output--eased concerns over inflationary pressures and strengthened the case for lower interest rates, providing a tailwind for non-yielding assets. Still, "short-dated U.S. bond yields still signal the risk of a rate hike later this year," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "A further easing in those expectations is needed to support bullion, which for now continues to consolidate." In early trading, New York gold futures rise 1% to $4,166 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 06, 2026 05:13 ET (09:13 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments