The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0631 GMT - The 'prices paid' component of the U.S. ISM services will get particular attention and could eventually support the short-end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, Metzler's Uwe Hohmann and Yannik Mosbach say in a note. This component is expected to remain at an elevated level, albeit lower than in the previous month, the analysts say ahead of the release for June. "Should there be a downside surprise here--as was the case with the manufacturing sector--it would further fuel recent doubts regarding Fed rate hikes and provide support for the short end of the Treasury curve," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0629 GMT - Singapore's private residential sales price growth this year is likely to end up around the midpoint of OCBC's estimated range of 1% to 3%, compared with 2025's 3.3% gain, says OCBC Group Research's Andy Wong in a media briefing. He notes 2Q flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority indicate slower growth in private home sales prices versus 1Q. The city-state's public housing resale prices have also fallen for the second consecutive quarter, reversing the upward trajectory of roughly the last seven years, he says. The softening in the resale market likely points to weakness for the broader residential market, including private housing's price growth, he says. He expects 2026 private new home sales of between 8,000 to 9,500, falling 12%-26% from 2025 due to fewer residential launches.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0624 GMT - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield could hit 3% by the end of the year as the economy stays on a firm growth trajectory, says Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management strategist Masahiro Ichikawa. He also expects further upside for Japanese equities if the government's massive investment plan promotes more capital spending in the private sector. "Regarding fiscal policy, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has expressed her intention to secure market trust, so the probability of it becoming undisciplined seems low," he adds. The 10-year JGB yield was last up 6 bps at 2.830%. The Nikkei Stock Average was down 0.2% at 69615.32. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0606 GMT - The downward correction in European Central Bank interest-rate expectations seems to be running out of steam for now, Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann says in a note. Official guidance for July is ambiguous, while the ECB is not taking a further rate hike off the table, the rates strategist says. For front-end eurozone bond yields to move lower, a larger drop in oil prices seems needed, he says. Money markets currently price in 17 basis points of ECB rate hike for September and 25 basis points by year-end, according to LSEG data. "More color is in store in the coming days with a long list of ECB speakers and the minutes from the June meeting," Guntermann says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0558 GMT - The dollar is likely to test higher against the yen despite speculation over potential Japanese government foreign-exchange intervention, Daiwa Securities strategists say. "Market participants will likely keep scrutinizing verbal intervention keywords like 'appropriate action' or 'decisive steps' to gauge how close authorities are to taking action," they say. "Ultimately, however, the market is expected to keep pushing the upside step-by-step until an actual currency intervention is finally triggered," they add. The dollar was last trading at 162.02 yen.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0557 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields fall in Asian trade following last Thursday's weaker-than-expected employment data that led the markets to scale back their expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Brent oil trades marginally lower, just below $72 per barrel, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided to increase oil output again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield declines 0.4 basis points to 4.126%, while the 10-year yield falls 0.6 basis points to 4.472%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0540 GMT - Softer U.S. labor data and better inflation prints have reduced the urgency around further Federal Reserve tightening, but they haven't settled whether growth is slowing in a manageable way or whether policy expectations have moved too far, BNY's Geoff Yu says in a note. "The global narrative is becoming less uniform," the senior EMEA macro strategist says. In the U.S., the question is whether the Fed can stay patient without seeing inflation risks reemerge, he says. In Europe, meanwhile, the debate is moving away from emergency inflation management and back toward growth, fiscal credibility and defense financing, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0537 GMT - Higher U.S. Treasury yields are forcing investors to reassess crowded bond exposure, BNY's Geoff Yu says in a note. However, the adjustment is not yet a broad exit from risk, the senior EMEA macro strategist says. "That distinction matters: equities, selective carry and currencies with stronger domestic anchors can still attract capital even as duration remains vulnerable," he says. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield last trades at 4.472%, down 0.6 basis points, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0523 GMT - Morgan Stanley enters short in French government bonds versus an equal-weighted basket of Italian and German peers, pointing to fiscal risks in France. "Fiscal concerns have resurfaced and should remain a source of pressure," they say. In our view, valuations do not yet fully capture political and fiscal risks, and the coming agenda could act as an additional catalyst. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0516 GMT - China's consumer price index likely rose modestly in June, according to BofA Securities in a research note. BofA estimates CPI inflation to rise to 1.3% year-over-year in June, from 1.2% in May. This was mainly due to higher vegetable prices offsetting lower pork and fruit prices, the bank says. While oil prices have fallen, their still-elevated year-over-year levels continue to support non-food inflation, BofA says. PPI inflation also likely increased to 4.4% year-over-year in June from 3.9% in May, the bank says. This was supported by firmer producer goods prices, it adds. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0508 GMT - Taiwan's June inflation likely remained above the 2% level, which is closely watched by the central bank, for a second consecutive month. Headline CPI likely rose 2.25% on year after a 2.2% gain in May, according to a Wall Street Journal poll of six economists, whose inflation estimates range between 2.1% and 2.4%. Although oil prices have eased, cost pass-through from upstream producers to downstream manufacturers and retailers is expected to persist, DBS economists say in a note. A low base from last year likely also pushed headline inflation higher, Barclays economists said. The inflation print in the next few months will be critical as Taiwan's central bank has tilted slightly hawkish. Both ANZ and DBS expect Taiwan's central bank to deliver a rate hike in September.(sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0503 GMT - The Bank of Japan's output gap estimates for the first quarter showed a stable positive trend, a mechanism that helps drive inflation higher, says SMBC Nikko Securities economist Yoshimasa Maruyama. The reading could be seen as justifying further interest rate hikes, he says. However, the size of the positive gap didn't expand, suggesting there is little immediate need to accelerate monetary tightening, he adds. "Any future need to speed up the pace or increase the scale of additional rate hikes would likely stem from a lagged but pronounced pass-through of inflationary pressures caused by the Middle East situation or rising inflation expectations." (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 06, 2026 02:31 ET (06:31 GMT)
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