The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0744 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% for the rest of the year, with inflation expected to remain contained, Goldman Sachs economists say in a note. Headline inflation cooled to 2.42% in June from May's 2.79%, driven by lower fuel prices. Thailand's central bank has since April maintained that headline inflation is unlikely to be broad-based or persistent, suggesting that it is willing to look through the temporary supply-side shock. "Today's sharper-than-expected disinflation should further reinforce the BOT's assessment," the economists say. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0736 GMT - Gold futures rise after posting their first weekly gain since May, as weaker U.S. jobs data and lower oil prices reduced expectations of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The sharp drop in crude prices--driven by the recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+'s decision to hike output--eased concerns over inflationary pressures and strengthened the case for lower interest rates, providing a tailwind for non-yielding assets. Still, "short-dated U.S. bond yields still signal the risk of a rate hike later this year," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "A further easing in those expectations is needed to support bullion, which for now continues to consolidate." In early trading, New York gold futures rise 1% to $4,166 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0722 GMT - Sterling could hand back some of its recent gains if U.K. fiscal sustainability fears re-emerge, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Andy Burnham is expected to become prime minister on July 20. Energy secretary Ed Miliband, who stands further to the left, is the favorite to become Treasury chief, he adds. "The problem remains, however, that there is very little fiscal room for adjustment without raising taxes." This, along with ING's call that the Bank of England won't raise interest rates this year, could weigh on sterling, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8562 pounds after reaching a one-year low of 0.8544 last Thursday, LSEG data show. This reflects a trimming of earlier bets against sterling, Turner says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0719GMT - Chips could become the main driver of inflation, taking over from energy, according to HSBC economists. With oil prices falling quickly, input cost pressures from energy prices have likely already peaked, they say in a note. However, companies in Taiwan and South Korea have raised semiconductor selling prices to protect margins amid strong tech demand, showing significant pricing power. As a result, semiconductor export prices in U.S. dollars increased 18% and 37% for Taiwan and South Korea, respectively, in May, according to HSBC calculations. "This supports national income in both economies, but it also means they are exporting inflation to the rest of the world, with spot semiconductor prices still rising," the economists say. "Chip inflation could easily take over from energy as the next global inflation impulse." (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0708 GMT - The euro could rise as the European Central Bank looks set to raise interest further in September, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. Market pricing on LSEG shows about a 70% chance of a September rate rise. That means any tightening would support the euro, he says. The ECB raised rates in June, thereby delivering already more than is expected from the Bank of England and other G-10 central banks, he says. "For once, the ECB has been proactive in responding to an inflation shock." This is a positive change for the euro, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1421.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0701 GMT - Consumer inflation in the Philippines likely eased to 6.60% in June, according to the median estimate of nine economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. That is slower than May's 6.8% increase from a year earlier. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas expects June inflation to be within the 6.0% to 7.0% range. Price pressures likely eased due to a decline in global oil prices and lower prices for meat and rice, DBS economists say in a report. BSP recently said that it will continue to monitor recent developments in the Middle East for implications on inflation and economic activity. The data are due Tuesday. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0652 GMT - Bitcoin stays strong after reaching a two-week high overnight. Last week's weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report prompted markets to scale back expectations for interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve, providing some relief to liquidity-related assets including cryptocurrencies, Capital.com's Monte Safieddine says in a note. The Fed releases the minutes of its last meeting on Wednesday which will be closely monitored for any signals on the trajectory of interest rates. Bitcoin rises 0.5% to $63,026, having reached a high of $63,926 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0650 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields edge lower, tracking their U.S. Treasury peers. "There is relatively little in the way of new impulses for the eurozone this week," Metzler analysts say in a note. German factory orders this morning, industrial production on Tuesday and foreign trade data Thursday, as well as eurozone producer prices and retail sales "should provide valuable insight regarding expected GDP growth for the second quarter," they say. While the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile and short-term supply is difficult to predict, structural oil supply appears set to rise further in the future, they say after OPEC+ decided to increase production. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 0.8 basis points to 2.923%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0649 GMT - A pullback in oil prices should be positive for corporate credit, according to Jefferies's Mohit Kumar. Credit spreads are too tight but outright yields are still attractive, the global economist writes in a note. "We remain positive on credit on a total yield basis," he says. More broadly, Jefferies remains positive on risky assets. "No need for central banks to hike rates (our view), positive seasonality in July, not so crowded positions and ample cash in the system should all favor risky assets over the coming weeks," Kumar says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0634 GMT - The dollar edges higher as it recovers from recent falls driven by a trimming of U.S. interest rate rise expectations. The reassessment of rate expectations followed last Thursday's weaker-than-expected nonfarm payrolls along with comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh last Wednesday that inflationary risks had eased. However, LSEG data show the market is still expecting the Fed to raise rates by year-end. The attention now turns to the Fed's meeting minutes on Wednesday for further clues on the policy path. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 101.035. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0631 GMT - The 'prices paid' component of the U.S. ISM services will get particular attention and could eventually support the short-end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, Metzler's Uwe Hohmann and Yannik Mosbach say in a note. This component is expected to remain at an elevated level, albeit lower than in the previous month, the analysts say ahead of the release for June. "Should there be a downside surprise here--as was the case with the manufacturing sector--it would further fuel recent doubts regarding Fed rate hikes and provide support for the short end of the Treasury curve," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0629 GMT - Singapore's private residential sales price growth this year is likely to end up around the midpoint of OCBC's estimated range of 1% to 3%, compared with 2025's 3.3% gain, says OCBC Group Research's Andy Wong in a media briefing. He notes 2Q flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority indicate slower growth in private home sales prices versus 1Q. The city-state's public housing resale prices have also fallen for the second consecutive quarter, reversing the upward trajectory of roughly the last seven years, he says. The softening in the resale market likely points to weakness for the broader residential market, including private housing's price growth, he says. He expects 2026 private new home sales of between 8,000 to 9,500, falling 12%-26% from 2025 due to fewer residential launches.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 06, 2026 03:44 ET (07:44 GMT)
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