The S&P 500's consumer discretionary sector is the only one of 11 sectors to decline so far this year
Analysts polled by FactSet expect shares of Ulta Beauty to rise by 40% over the next year.
So far this year, a broad rally for stocks has been driven by profit increases. But there are always stocks that miss a rally, and this year, one S&P 500 sector has declined.
Below is a screen of stocks within the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500 SPX, for companies favored by analysts.
Here are year-to-date price changes for the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 through Monday, along with forward price/earnings ratios and those at the end of 2025. The sectors are listed by ascending price changes, excluding dividends, with the full index at the bottom. There is additional data explained below the table.
Sector or index 2026 price change Forward P/E Forward P/E as of Dec. 31 2026 change in rolling 12-month EPS estimate Projected revenue CAGR from 2026 through 2028
Consumer discretionary -0.2% 27.4 29.6 8% 7.7%
Financials 2.5% 15.5 16.3 8% 5.0%
Communication services 3.9% 19.9 22.3 17% 9.8%
Healthcare 4.6% 18.8 18.6 4% 5.5%
Utilities 6.0% 18.0 17.9 6% 5.2%
Consumer Staples 7.9% 22.9 22.1 4% 3.4%
Real estate 10.3% 18.2 17.1 4% 6.9%
Materials 13.6% 17.8 19.0 22% 3.2%
Information technology 17.1% 22.7 26.7 40% 18.9%
Energy 18.0% 12.5 16.0 51% -2.8%
Industrials 19.6% 26.1 23.9 10% 7.7%
S&P 500 10.1% 20.6 22.2 19% 7.6%
Source: FactSet
The consumer discretionary group is the only S&P 500 sector to decline so far in 2006.
The S&P 500's year-to-date gain of 10.1% compares well to an average annualized return of 11.4% (including reinvested dividends) over the past 20 years, according to data provided by FactSet.
For the full S&P 500, the forward price/earnings ratio has declined this year to 20.6 from 22.2 at the end of 2025. This is the ratio of prices to rolling consensus 12-month earnings-per-share estimates among analysts polled by FactSet, weighted by the companies' market capitalization. The rolling 12-month EPS estimate for the full index has increased 19% this year. It turns out that forward P/E ratios have declined for six of the S&P 500's 11 sectors, with the information technology and energy sectors standing out with the largest such valuation declines.
The consumer discretionary sector is the most expensive one on a weighted forward P/E basis, although its rolling 12-month EPS estimate has increased 8% as its price has declined slightly. The largest stock in the sector by market cap is Amazon.com (AMZN), which has a valuation of $2.62 trillion. This stock trades at a forward P/E of 26, which is lower than the weighted valuation of 27.4 for the sector.
And despite its ubiquity, Amazon's projected compound annual growth (CAGR) rate for revenue is projected to be 13.7% from 2026 through 2028. That compares with a projected sales CAGR of 7.7% for the full consumer discretionary index. So Amazon appears attractively priced based on these figures.
The sales projections are based on consensus estimates among analysts polled by FactSet, with adjustments by the data provider for calendar years, since some companies have fiscal-reporting periods that don't match the calendar.
Screening the consumer discretionary sector of the S&P 500
To screen the 47 stocks in the S&P 500's consumer discretionary sector, we looked at ratings and consensus price targets among analysts polled by FactSet. Analysts working for brokerage and research firms tend to set 12-month price targets.
Here are the dozen companies in the S&P 500 consumer discretionary sector for which the price targets imply upside of at least 25%, while at least two-thirds of the analysts rate the stocks a buy:
Company July 6 price Consensus price target Implied 12-month upside potential Forward P/E Projected sales CAGR from 2026 through 2028 Las Vegas Sands $46.58 $68.93 48% 13.4 4.0% Hasbro $77.98 $113.23 45% 12.7 4.8% Wynn Resorts $95.89 $137.83 44% 19.5 3.9% Ulta Beauty $452.49 $632.29 40% 15.1 5.2% AutoZone $2,957.71 $3,973.86 34% 17.6 7.5% O'Reilly Automotive $84.24 $111.17 32% 24.9 6.3% DoorDash $188.46 $248.54 32% 55.5 19.7% Aptiv PLC $59.73 $78.05 31% 9.2 2.6% Amazon.com $244.16 $317.32 30% 26.0 13.7% Carnival Corporation $27.51 $34.94 27% 11.0 3.9% Chipotle Mexican Grill $33.98 $42.97 26% 28.2 10.8% General Motors $77.85 $97.96 26% 5.6 2.2% Source: FactSet
Click on the tickers for more about each company.
Don't miss: Eight microcap stocks of companies expected to grow sales by triple digits through 2028
-Philip van Doorn
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July 07, 2026 12:24 ET (16:24 GMT)
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