The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0834 GMT - Resilience in emerging-market fixed income during the Iran conflict has confirmed Generali Investments' long-held positive view, senior EM strategist Guillaume Tresca says in a note. Generali Investments continues to see value in local debt. It offers pro-cyclical exposure to a still-positive EM macroeconomic backdrop, with resilient economic activity and minimal growth revisions following the Iran conflict, he says. "Valuations look compelling," he says, adding that EM rates still offer attractive carry and real yield buffers, and markets should further reduce rate-hike expectations established in the early stage of the Iran conflict. Technicals are supportive for local debt as well, with foreign ownership remaining low by historical standards, while renewed inflows are building up, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - Evidence that the eurozone economy held up better than feared in the second quarter is a positive development for the euro, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. Last week's stronger-than-expected industrial production data for Spain and France prompted MUFG to raise its second-quarter eurozone growth forecast to 0.25% from a previous expectation of near-stagnation, he says. "In addition, a faster-than-expected reversal of the energy price shock should improve investor sentiment towards both the euro-area economy and the euro over the remainder of this year." The European Central Bank could raise interest rates again in September even though inflationary risks have eased, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1422 and MUFG expects it to rise back towards $1.18. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0754 GMT - Singapore's retail sales in the coming months should be supported by improving consumer confidence and easing labor-market risks, DBS senior economist Chua Han Teng says in a note. This comes as global economic uncertainty eases amid de-escalating tensions in the Middle East. Retail sales extended their growth for the fourth straight month in May, but cooled to 3.0% on year, down from April's 5.4%. Government support measures should also help to boost consumer spending, especially on essential items at supermarkets. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0750 GMT - Japanese authorities could still intervene to shore up the yen later this month, after refraining from highly anticipated action on Friday, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The dollar is already back above 162 yen after a no-show from Japanese authorities in U.S. holiday-thinned conditions on Friday, he says. "This could be a reminder that Tokyo wants to use its finite foreign exchange reserves cautiously." The next window for interventions could be July 16-17 ahead of the next public holiday in Japan on July 20. The dollar rises 0.5% to 162.21 yen, having briefly reached a two-week low of 160.51 Friday. The dollar hit a 40-year high of 162.83 yen on Wednesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0745 GMT - Asia-Pacific's economic growth and need for flexible financing are likely to sustain strong private-credit demand, says Moody's Ratings in a note. Strong regional growth, supported by factors such as young demographics and growing consumption, will continue to increase financing needs across various sectors, including digital infrastructure and real estate, the analysts say. While private credit assets under management in Asia-Pacific appears to have stalled at around $80 billion in dollar terms over 2022-2025, Moody's says this is largely due to local currencies depreciating against the greenback. "We expect APAC private credit AUM to continue growing faster than that in the U.S. and Europe" in local currency terms, although the APAC market will remain much smaller than the U.S. and Europe, Moody's adds. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0744 GMT - The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.00% for the rest of the year, with inflation expected to remain contained, Goldman Sachs economists say in a note. Headline inflation cooled to 2.42% in June from May's 2.79%, driven by lower fuel prices. Thailand's central bank has since April maintained that headline inflation is unlikely to be broad-based or persistent, suggesting that it is willing to look through the temporary supply-side shock. "Today's sharper-than-expected disinflation should further reinforce the BOT's assessment," the economists say. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0736 GMT - Gold futures rise after posting their first weekly gain since May, as weaker U.S. jobs data and lower oil prices reduced expectations of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The sharp drop in crude prices--driven by the recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+'s decision to hike output--eased concerns over inflationary pressures and strengthened the case for lower interest rates, providing a tailwind for non-yielding assets. Still, "short-dated U.S. bond yields still signal the risk of a rate hike later this year," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "A further easing in those expectations is needed to support bullion, which for now continues to consolidate." In early trading, New York gold futures rise 1% to $4,166 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0722 GMT - Sterling could hand back some of its recent gains if U.K. fiscal sustainability fears re-emerge, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Andy Burnham is expected to become prime minister on July 20. Energy secretary Ed Miliband, who stands further to the left, is the favorite to become Treasury chief, he adds. "The problem remains, however, that there is very little fiscal room for adjustment without raising taxes." This, along with ING's call that the Bank of England won't raise interest rates this year, could weigh on sterling, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.8562 pounds after reaching a one-year low of 0.8544 last Thursday, LSEG data show. This reflects a trimming of earlier bets against sterling, Turner says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0719GMT - Chips could become the main driver of inflation, taking over from energy, according to HSBC economists. With oil prices falling quickly, input cost pressures from energy prices have likely already peaked, they say in a note. However, companies in Taiwan and South Korea have raised semiconductor selling prices to protect margins amid strong tech demand, showing significant pricing power. As a result, semiconductor export prices in U.S. dollars increased 18% and 37% for Taiwan and South Korea, respectively, in May, according to HSBC calculations. "This supports national income in both economies, but it also means they are exporting inflation to the rest of the world, with spot semiconductor prices still rising," the economists say. "Chip inflation could easily take over from energy as the next global inflation impulse." (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0708 GMT - The euro could rise as the European Central Bank looks set to raise interest further in September, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. Market pricing on LSEG shows about a 70% chance of a September rate rise. That means any tightening would support the euro, he says. The ECB raised rates in June, thereby delivering already more than is expected from the Bank of England and other G-10 central banks, he says. "For once, the ECB has been proactive in responding to an inflation shock." This is a positive change for the euro, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1421.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0701 GMT - Consumer inflation in the Philippines likely eased to 6.60% in June, according to the median estimate of nine economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. That is slower than May's 6.8% increase from a year earlier. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas expects June inflation to be within the 6.0% to 7.0% range. Price pressures likely eased due to a decline in global oil prices and lower prices for meat and rice, DBS economists say in a report. BSP recently said that it will continue to monitor recent developments in the Middle East for implications on inflation and economic activity. The data are due Tuesday. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0652 GMT - Bitcoin stays strong after reaching a two-week high overnight. Last week's weaker-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls report prompted markets to scale back expectations for interest rate rises by the Federal Reserve, providing some relief to liquidity-related assets including cryptocurrencies, Capital.com's Monte Safieddine says in a note. The Fed releases the minutes of its last meeting on Wednesday which will be closely monitored for any signals on the trajectory of interest rates. Bitcoin rises 0.5% to $63,026, having reached a high of $63,926 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 06, 2026 04:34 ET (08:34 GMT)
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