It could've been better for Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile. It could've been worse.
Wall Street took stock of telecoms because of the threat of SpaceX's Starlink satellite unit -- and decided to fret a little but not to panic.
Two of the three names took it in stride on Wednesday. In midmorning trading, Verizon and AT&T were all up -- 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively. T-Mobile was off 1.2%.
All the drama started on June 26 after Bloomberg reported that Charter Communications and SpaceX have discussed the possibility of coming together on a consumer mobile phone in the U.S. Since then, Verizon and AT&T are down 8.5% and 7.2%, respectively as of Tuesday's closing bell. T-Mobile is 1.1% higher. SpaceX offers direct-to-cell connectivity with T-Mobile in the U.S.
Wells Fargo might be the biggest doubter of where the companies are headed. Barclays and Morgan Stanley came in with different impressions.
Wells Fargo's Steven Cahall, initiated coverage on all three telecom stocks Wednesday. He rated both Verizon and T-Mobile as Equal Weight with price targets of $43 and $170, respectively, and handed AT&T an Underweight rating and a price target of $18.
SpaceX's Starlink underpinned Cahill's ratings.
"SPCX's connectivity ambitions means the key debate for the wireless carriers is how the market will change with a new competitor in broadband, & then likely in mobile," he wrote.
So far, the analyst pointed out, the three cellular-service providers have declined to lease network space to SpaceX.
Cahall wrote that SpaceX "may well build" a fourth wireless network if the telecoms keep resisting a deal.
AT&T and Verizon both have agreements with space satellite operator AST SpaceMobile for direct-to-cell services. Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile are in talks with each other to satellite services to backup cellular services.
Barclays lowered its price targets on all three stocks, but kept its ratings the same: Overweight on T-Mobile and Equal Weight on AT&T and Verizon. The price targets: T-Mobile to $230 from $245, AT&T to $24, and Verizon to $45 from $47.
Like Barclays, Morgan Stanley's Sean Diffley kept his ratings the same: Overweight on T-Mobile and AT&T, with T-Mobile its "top pick"; and Equal Weight on Verizon.
Diffley cut his price targets on T-Mobile and AT&T to $230 from $260 and to $25 from $30, respectively. Verizon's price target is $50.
The cuts were, again, because of SpaceX.
Diffley estimated that Starlink Broadband will have about 16 million subscriptions by 2030, up from 3 million last year.
"We believe the perceived risk of Starlink Mobile disrupting the U.S. wireless industry is greater than the actual risk in the next 1-2 years given a positive bias towards the Big 3 who have seen speeds and satisfaction rates improve the last several years," he wrote.
SpaceX will spend about $200 billion on global connectivity in the next five years -- about 80% of that spending on its mobile services, Morgan Stanley estimates.
That's something investors should definitely take note of when evaluating the big three carriers.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
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