The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2027 ET - The New Zealand central bank is likely to stand pat on interest rates this week, says Moody's Analytics in a note. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained its policy rate at 2.25% since November, and faces the debate on whether to withdraw monetary policy support amid risks to inflation and growth outlooks. "Recent developments in oil markets have eased pressure on headline inflation more than anticipated, providing space for a hold in July," Moody's says. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
2017 ET - The Australian dollar's rebound against its U.S. counterpart has run into resistance, based on technical charts, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. "There are plenty of resistance levels overhead," the senior market analyst says. The upper 1-week implied volatility band is just below US$0.7000 and the 20-day simple moving average is right on the June 11 low, making US$0.6976-US$0.7000 a potential resistance zone, the analyst says. However, with 200-day SMA around recent lows and above April's high, "I'm not seeking an excessively bearish move for now," Simpson adds. The Australian dollar is 0.1% lower at US$0.6934, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2012 ET - JGBs fall in price terms in early Tokyo trade amid concerns over Japan's fiscal policies. "We see an increasing risk of the [10-year] yield testing 3% sooner than anticipated with a rising fiscal premium," Citi Research's Tomohisa Fujiki says in a research report. The rates strategist notes Japanese government's 370-trillion-yen growth investment strategy and pressure on the BOJ thought to be included in policy documents on budgetary requests. "If the government's investment program successfully boosts the [country's] potential growth rate, JGB yields should rise sharply," Fujiki adds. The 10-year JGB yield rises 3 bps to 2.800%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2000 ET - China's headline inflation in June likely eased slightly to 1.1% on year from 1.2% in May, says Moody's Analytics in a note. The impact of falling pork prices, a reflection of weak consumer demand, on food inflation likely helped to partly offset the upward pressure on transport and utilities inflation from higher commodity prices, it says. Producer price inflation in June also likely softened to 3.7% from 3.9% in May, it says. The inflation data are due Thursday. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
1953 ET - Australia now has the second-highest inflation rate across all advanced economies, behind only Iceland, after trimmed mean inflation rose to 3.6% in May, according to data platform Trading Economics. For John Simon, a former head of economic analysis at the central bank, the data is evidence that the Reserve Bank of Australia has let inflation fester. The RBA pursued a poor strategy founded on the mistaken premise that they could let inflation run without it affecting inflation expectations, he says. It is only now that they are acknowledging that maybe the assumption their entire strategy hinged on was not a good one, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1947 ET - Japanese stocks may remain rangebound amid continued uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and following recent sharp gains driven by enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Nikkei futures are up 0.2% at 70000 on the SGX. The dollar is at 161.46 yen, compared with Y160.98 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Iran conflict and crude oil prices. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.5% to 69744.07 on Friday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1934 ET - With oil prices dropping sharply in mid-June, market certainty that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise interest rates on Wednesday has appropriately reduced. There is unequivocally less urgency to hike now, says Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ. However, she still expects a hike, as getting the official cash rate off its cycle lows is the best decision from a risk management point of view, Zollner says. The New Zealand dollar has also dropped sharply, in an easing of monetary conditions, she notes. Saying hikes are imminent but not today for a second time in six weeks may or may not be seen as credible, she adds.(james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1931 ET - Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to leave its official cash rate on hold at 2.25% at its policy meeting on Wednesday. Much has changed over the past six weeks, most notably oil prices have fallen much more rapidly than expected, the bank says in a note to clients. The related moderation in inflation pressure gives the RBNZ more time to wait-and-watch how the economy is tracking, especially with a large amount of important economic data to be released after the July review, it adds. Still, forward guidance should remain consistent with a lift in the OCR this year, the bank adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 05, 2026 20:27 ET (00:27 GMT)
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