TradingKey - Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) is trading at $149.60, keeping the triple-bottom support zone and ascending trendline on the 2H chart just above the $140.97 lower bound. Two factors are impacting sentiment. First, an effort to close gas turbines that power SpaceX's Colossus 2 data center is attempting to force the facility to operate without its needed permit, an order which, in the unlikely event it was successful in a court decision, could interfere with a significant portion of SpaceX's ~$45 billion AI compute arrangement with Anthropic. Second, the lockup period is on investors' minds.
As Motley Fool highlights, it's possible insiders could sell as much as 44% of SpaceX shares in the coming weeks starting early September, which could lead to a substantial increase in the public float from the current ~4.2%. Notwithstanding these short-term headwinds, the consensus analysts' price target at this time is $236.45, equating to ~58% upside. SpaceX is set to release its August 6 earnings report, which will also be the date the first portion of shares under lockup becomes available for sale.
Colossus 2 Lawsuit, AI Compute Arrangement With Anthropic
In a lawsuit over SpaceX's Colossus 2 data center, plaintiffs are alleging that the gas turbines powering the facility have been operating without the required environmental permits and are seeking an injunction forcing them to shut down until they can be issued the necessary approvals. According to TradingKey, a lower court may direct the company to suspend operations on a temporary basis while giving it a period of time to remedy the permitting issue.
Colossus 2 provides support for the ~$45 billion, multi-year AI compute arrangement SpaceX has with Anthropic, which is estimated to provide the latter up to ~300 megawatts of compute. If the gas turbines were to be shut down, the impact on the contract would depend on the length of time the interruption would last. A short delay while compliance with the environmental permitting order is achieved should only have a minimal effect, though a more sustained interruption could result in a delay in performance of the AI compute agreement. SpaceX has yet to publicly comment on the ongoing legal process. Also worth noting, reports that SpaceXAI and Cursor could launch the first joint AI model they've collaborated on as soon as this week is an additional AI-related headline for SpaceX, but it doesn't necessarily have any bearing on the permitting issue.
Lockup Expiration, Possible Increase In Public Float
As Motley Fool highlights, it's possible insiders could sell as much as 44% of SpaceX shares by early next month. If it happens, the public float could increase from about 4.2% to as much as 48%, significantly boosting the volume of shares available to be traded by the public.
Under the lockup, about 20% of the insider shares become eligible to sell by August 6, around the time that SpaceX's second-quarter earnings report gets released. An additional 10% could be released by then if stock performance meets a predetermined threshold while the remaining shares could be scheduled to become available as early as 180 days after the initial listing in December 2026. The August shares being released would be the first significant release of shares available to buy or sell since going public and could have an influence on price action in the near term.
Space Exploration Technologies is trading at $149.60, up about 10.8% from its $135 offering price, and about 8.5% higher than its first-day closing price of $137.11. The stock continues to maintain support between the $140.97 and $149.92 range, with the stock rebounding multiple times at that level since the June 23 low of $147.11. Stifel initiated coverage on the stock last month, citing the reusable launch system provided by its Falcon 9 rocket, recurring revenue from its Starlink satellite internet business, and the SpaceX AI business as key long-term drivers. The consensus analysts' price target at this time is $236.45, equating to about 58% upside in the shares.
SPCX Technical Analysis: Triple Bottom at $141–$150, RSI 41, Target $167.90
On the 2H chart, SPCX is maintaining support near $141-$150, aided by the triple bottom range spanning $140.97-$149.92 as well as the trending trendline of the ascending channel. The RSI sits at 41.48.
SpaceX (SPCX) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
The stock is in a neutral area with room to recover, and we don't see a bearish divergence forming. The most immediate and key resistance levels are $158.74-$167.95. If the stock closes above $158.70 strongly, then a rally to $167.90 becomes likely. If it closes under $140.90, then we know this structure has broken.
- Buy: Above $158.70 on confirmed breakout
- Target: $167.90, which is the next resistance level
- Stop Loss: Under $140.90, which is the technical invalidation point
Key Event #1 Colossus 2: SpaceX gas turbine permit lawsuit could lead to temporary disruption and impact the Anthropic AI compute contract.
Key Event #2 Lockup: 44% could unlock for sale starting early September, meaning a massive increase in the public float.
Aug 6: Q2 report and first lockup release.
How Much Could the Lockup Expiration Increase SpaceX's Public Float?
According to the Motley Fool, as the lockup is phased in over time, 44% could unlock for sale in early September, dramatically increasing public float of 4.2%. The August 6 release of 20% of all insider shares will happen at the company’s Q2 report, with an additional 10% release tied to performance metrics. All remaining insider shares are scheduled to begin selling in roughly 180 days after the December 2026 IPO. The Aug. 6 release remains the largest release in the immediate future.
Why Is the Average Analyst Target $236.45 While the Stock Trades Near $150?
The $236.45 average analyst target, a 58% upside from the $149.60 stock price, indicates expectations that all three core businesses will continue to grow as analysts see Starlink growing its customer base, SpaceX Anthropic and Google AI computing agreements lasting a long time, a Falcon 9 market dominance for reusability launches and commercialized Starship potential as noted by Stifel on their initial coverage. The difference between stock price and targets indicates there is still uncertainty over the Colossus 2 permit lawsuit, the imminent unlock of a significant supply of insider shares, as well as the fact that the business may be too expensive given it trades at 54x expected FY26 sales.
Bottom Line
SPCX shares trade at $149.60 and are in a solid triple bottom zone with an RSI of 41.48 that indicates neutral momentum. The market sentiment of investors is under pressure from the Colossus 2 permit lawsuit that could temporarily affect the AI compute business, as well as a potential dramatic increase in publicly traded shares as a portion of insider shares will begin to unlock. However, while the short-term picture could be clouded, the average analyst target of $236.45 still remains an indicator of longer-term bullishness. A firm break above $158.70 could see it test $167.90, while a firm close beneath $140.90 weakens the technical picture. Aug. 6 earnings and the first lockup release are the near-term key events.
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