MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Eurozone retail sales, PPI; Germany manufacturing orders; trading update from Norwegian Air Shuttle
Opening Call:
European stock futures traded lower early Monday. Asian stock benchmarks were mixed; the dollar strengthened; Treasury yields were down; while oil futures fell and gold rose.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a lower open in Europe after a huge rally by momentum stocks last quarter, with analysts warning that July could bring more volatility.
"The recent bounce in healthcare, industrials and financials is encouraging, but it is not yet enough to declare a healthy rotation," said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. "A real rotation is when capital moves from one part of the market to another without disturbing the furniture. What we saw last week felt more like everyone leaving one crowded room at once and hoping the hallway was wide enough."
Forex:
Markets seem to be in a holding pattern, waiting for the next catalyst for the U.S. dollar and U.S. rates, MUFG Bank's Michael Wan said in a research report.
"Global markets will take their cue from key data points such as the U.S. ISM services data and the FOMC minutes later this week, coupled with U.S. CPI next week," the senior currency analyst said.
CBA said it expects that "market participants will parse the [Federal Reserve's] minutes for validation or contrast with the meeting's hawkish comments."
Bonds:
The U.K. government bond market is likely to remain sensitive to the details of fiscal plans under Andy Burnham, the frontrunner to become U.K. prime minister, Goldman Sachs analysts said.
"It remains unclear how his plans differ from current government policy and how they will be funded." Burnham has pledged to stick to current fiscal rules, although his plans are likely to require additional outlays, they said. Significant existing spending pressures will make it difficult to deliver compensating spending cuts elsewhere and raising revenue through tax hikes looks challenging, they said.
Energy:
Oil futures fell, weighed by a decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to increase oil output again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers and Persian Gulf producers restore production.
However, "even amid reopening of the strait, members may struggle to utilise the additional capacity due to ongoing risks to their vessels," ANZ Research analysts said. "Over the weekend, several vessels were seen suddenly turning around as they tried sailing through the strait along the Omani route," the analysts noted.
Metals:
Gold edged higher in Asian trade. Softer U.S. jobs data and lower energy prices are likely leading investors to scale back bets on Fed rate increases, UOB's global economics and markets research team said. Nonyielding assets such as gold are typically weighed by a higher interest-rate environment.
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Copper prices rose after weaker-than-expected U.S. June nonfarm payrolls reinforced expectations that the Fed will delay policy tightening, Changjiang Futures analysts said.
Fundamentals remain supportive, with inventories continuing to decline, showing supply tightness, they said. Copper is likely to remain buoyed by improving macro sentiment and lower inventories.
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Iron ore strengthened, supported by resilient near-term demand from Chinese steel mills, although gains may be limited by ample supply and weakening profit margins across the steel sector, Baocheng Futures analysts said.
Demand for iron ore remains relatively firm, but deteriorating profitability at steel mills has raised expectations that iron ore demand could soften in the coming months, they added. Overall supply remains elevated, while domestic iron ore production has been broadly stable, they said. High port inventories also continue to weigh on market sentiment.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
OPEC, Allies Hike Output Again as Hormuz Traffic Starts Recovering
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed to raise oil output again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers and Persian Gulf producers restore production.
After a virtual meeting on Sunday, seven members of the broader group called OPEC+ said they will raise production by about 188,000 barrels a day in August, marking a fifth straight monthly increase as the cartel continues to unwind production cuts introduced in recent years. The countries participating in the increase include Saudi Arabia-the group's de-facto leader-along with Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
Why the stock market's red-hot momentum trade might be headed for a violent unwind this month
U.S. stocks are set up for potentially dramatic rotations beneath the S&P 500 index's surface, with rumblings already underway following a stratospheric rise in semiconductors shares.
An astounding rally in momentum stocks, captured by the performance of the Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF SPMO, just helped drive major indexes like the S&P 500 SPX and Nasdaq Composite COMP to their biggest quarterly gain in six years, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
'There Is No Going Back': The Inside Story of Europe's Rupture With America
It was almost midnight in Brussels and the leaders of Europe were locked in their fifth hour of an emergency meeting with a single theme for discussion: how to manage a breakup with America.
The new year was only three weeks old and President Trump, after removing Venezuela's autocratic strongman, had briefly threatened to seize Greenland from Denmark. Around a circular table in the European Council headquarters known as "The Space Egg," heads of government were venting so emotionally about the 47th president that some of the nearly 30 leaders present would later call the session "therapy night." There were no cameras or recordings and each of the presidents and prime ministers was told to come alone, no phones allowed, for a moment to speak candidly.
A Sudden Glut of Oil Threatens to Weaken Iran's Hand in Talks
Oil prices have fallen to prewar levels. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering fast. Gulf producers are already restarting idled wells.
But one thing will take much, much longer-refilling the world's oil coffers.
Big Tech Has Suddenly Flipped on the AI Jobs Wipeout Scenario
A year ago, the message from many business leaders was that AI was going to wipe out jobs. For the past month or so, tech CEOs have been striking a more optimistic tone.
In late May, OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman-who has long predicted that AI will lead to seismic shifts in the workforce-said during a conference, "We've been roughly right on technological predictions and pretty wrong on the social and economic implications."
A Trucking Startup Aims to Challenge Tesla. Now, Paychecks Are Missing-And So Is a Truck
Windrose Technology seemed poised this year to disrupt the global trucking industry: $400 million raised to build a cutting-edge electric big rig to rival Tesla's new Semi truck.
By March, the company was in such disarray that Windrose's chief executive, Wen Han, was demanding to know where one of his $285,000 trucks had gone.
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Expected Major Events for Monday
05:45/SWI: Jun Unemployment
06:00/GER: May Manufacturing orders
06:00/GER: May Manufacturing turnover
06:00/ROM: May Retail trade
06:30/HUN: May Preliminary Industrial Production
06:30/HUN: May Retail Sales
07:00/SVK: May Internal trade, incl Wholesale & Retail
08:00/UK: Jun UK monthly car registrations figures
08:30/UK: Jun S&P Global UK Construction PMI
09:00/EU: May PPI
09:00/EU: May Retail trade
10:00/IRL: Jun Monthly Unemployment
10:00/FRA: May OECD CPI
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 06, 2026 00:00 ET (04:00 GMT)
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