CD rates are at a standstill, but that could change after the next Fed meeting, or the one after that
If you aren't sure what to do next with your cash, think through all the elements that drive CD rates.
John Blizzard is usually pretty opinionated about whether CD rates will move up or down at any given point in time. As founder of CD Valet, an online CD marketplace, and president and chief executive of Seattle Bank, he watches interest rates closely and monitors a variety of economic factors. But right now, he sees the situation as a stalemate.
"You have this battle going on, and it's probably one of the most unpredictable markets I've seen in a really long time," Blizzard said. Some forces have been indicating a higher rate for CDs, while others have been pushing for lower rates. That has kept the top rates just under 4% for several months - not out of inactivity, but because the push-pull keeps a swing from happening in either direction.
It's particularly important for retirement savers to read the tea leaves on CD rates because so many people have cash buckets set up to fund their living expenses. Many people ladder their CDs for monthly, quarterly or yearly disbursements so they can continually refill their coffers without having to worry about stock-market volatility. This can amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars per saver coming due regularly - some $2.37 trillion in CDs will mature this year, according to an article Blizzard wrote for Financial Brand, a banking trade publication.
For those sitting on cash now, the question is: Lock in a rate now, while rates are steady (and still historically high), or wait until after the Federal Reserve's next rate-setting meeting at the end of July (or the one after that, in September)?
This is where the push-pull comes in. To forecast rates, Blizzard primarily looks at inflation, the job market, consumer spending and stocks. All are showing mixed signals at the moment. Banks are generally reacting by raising CD interest rates for right now - although not all of them are doing so. "Last week, we tracked 208 12-month CD rates that went up and 89 that went down. That's the second time in two weeks that we've seen that ratio," Blizzard said. "It's not a bad time to lock in if it is your retirement money and it's like $100,000 at a time."
Overall, in a volatile market, today is always a better day to lock in a rate. Individuals are particularly bad at timing investment decisions. If your choice is between leaving cash in a savings account earning minimal interest versus putting it into a CD at a rate above inflation, then that can be an easy choice to make. If you're worried about the rate today versus a possibly slightly higher rate tomorrow, then heed the words of Mark Hamrick, a longtime economic analyst, formerly for Bankrate, and now chief economic analyst for the Hamrick Brief on Substack: "One mantra that bears consideration here is that savers should not let perfect become enemy of the good. Timing and perfect product might not be easy to ascertain. You can get close enough."
Where to find the best CD rates today
Deciding to purchase a CD is just a conceptual first step, because CDs need to be shopped. Rates at the big national banks tend to be far below regional and online-only players in the marketplace - sometimes only half as much - so you can't just go to your main bank and press a few buttons.
The reason for this is that CD rates act a little more independently than do rates on savings accounts and yields on Treasury products, which tend to more closely follow the Federal Reserve. Blizzard said that CD rates can be greatly affected by a bank's need to compete for customers in a way that doesn't usually affect other products, and that can push some specific banks to offer special deals. There are currently promotional rates up to 9% listed on CD Valet, some of which come with very specific conditions like minimum investments, residency requirements or membership restrictions.
So if you're investing $100,000 in a CD, it matters greatly if you're going to get 1.99% interest, which is the national average according to Bankrate, or 4%, which is available from many online banks. That $2,000 difference is real money.
However, the difference between 4% on a CD and something like 4.06% on a 1-year Treasury bill matters less. The same goes for the current 4.26% offer on Series I bonds, which are limited to a $10,000 purchase per year per person. Money-market funds are running slightly behind those rates, on average, at more like 3.3% for Fidelity's government money-market fund.
"There are different levels of comfort for a variety of products," said Hamrick. Retirees who favor CDs might not have a lot invested in stocks or even have a brokerage account. But they typically understand CDs, know how to buy them and manage them, and feel comfortable with them, he said.
"Among the most elegant aspects of saving in CDs is simplicity," Hamrick said. "They are easy to understand and easy to access. For Treasurys or other options, it gets more complicated. There's timing issues."
The key is getting the right CD. That means searching online for banks far and wide that are making an aggressive play for customers, and reading the fine print on the contract. You want to know if the rate is locked, if the CD can be called back by the financial institution if rates change (a "callable" CD) and what the surrender charges are if you want out of the deal early.
"The reality for savers is that they cannot or should not accept average rates on CDs, which are well below the recent inflation rate," said Hamrick. "It's highly important for people to engage in a little due diligence."
Got a question about investing, how it fits into your overall financial plan and what strategies can help you make the most out of your money? You can write to me at beth.pinsker@marketwatch.com. Please put "Fix My Portfolio" in the subject line.
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July 10, 2026 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT)
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