The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2014 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade, but may be weighed by Middle East tensions. U.S. military forces launched new strikes on Iran Wednesday, hours after President Trump said the eight-week ceasefire had ended. "Renewed geopolitical risks pose a near-term headwind" for the Australian dollar against the greenback, CBA's Samara Hammoud says in a research report. "However, the costs of returning to war remain high and incentivise the U.S. and Iran to stick to the ceasefire," the international economist and currency strategist adds. The Australian dollar edges 0.1% higher to US$0.6937, while the U.S. dollar is 0.3% lower at 1,500.30 won, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2011 ET - JGBs fall in the morning Tokyo session, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. JGB prices are also likely being weighed on by rising crude oil prices, which may fuel domestic inflation worries and hasten rate increases by the Bank of Japan. Meanwhile, investor focus is on the Japan Finance Ministry's auction Thursday of about 2.5 trillion yen of 5-year sovereign notes. The 5-year JGB yield is "again nearing the 2% threshold marked in mid-May," says SMBC Nikko Securities' Lisa Mochizuki in a research report. "This should be supportive, so we expect the auction to clear smoothly," the junior analyst says. The 10-year JGB yield rises 1.5 bps to 2.880%, the highest intraday level since September 1996. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1949 ET - Japanese stocks may rise after renewed concerns about the Iran conflict triggered sell-offs on Wednesday. Nikkei futures are up 1.4% at 67885 on the SGX. The dollar is at 162.56 yen, compared with Y162.20 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East and crude oil prices after President Trump announced the end of an eight-week ceasefire. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 2.1% to 66819.05 on Wednesday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1548 ET - Treasury yields rise amid renewed hostilities in the Middle East. President Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is over, driving oil prices up 5% and reviving inflation concerns. Fed minutes provide little certainty about the future of interest rates, with officials expressing mixed views. A 10-year Treasury auction has yield near market levels, indicating firm demand. Weekly jobless claims are forecast to increase to 218,000 from 215,000, in a WSJ survey. June existing home sales growth is expected to slow to 0.7% from May's 3.2%. The 10-year yield rises 0.038 percentage point, to 4.567%. The two-year adds 0.040 p.p., to 4.200%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1455 ET - The AI build-out creates an uncertain scenario for officials as they balance the risks between waiting for a larger productivity payoff and addressing any inflation pressures it may create in the short-term. Mentions of AI increased in June's Fed minutes. "Many participants noted that ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity," the minutes said. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1444 ET - The Fed June meeting minutes showed that all participants supported maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate (which is 3.5-3.75%). Regarding the labor market, participants considered conditions to appear stable. At the time, the Fed had on hand the May jobs report, which showed the U.S. economy adding 172,000 jobs in May in a broader range of sectors. In the minutes 'several' participants said they did not see the policy stance as restrictive, while a few other participants commented that they saw the current policy stance as slightly restrictive. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1419 ET - In the minutes of June's Fed meeting, officials showed a mixed outlook for monetary policy amid economic uncertainty. In the minutes, "many" participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate (in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%) would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year. "Many" other participants, however, assessed that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be above the current target range at the end of this year.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1416 ET - Bitcoin is down 2.3% to $62,211, trimming its recent rebound after finding fresh lows around $57,000 last week. Possibly the hottest topic among analysts is where the bottom of this cycle is--or if its already been reached. "Current conditions typically dampen short-term sentiment, but provide a necessary environment for passive demand to absorb supply from exiting hands," explains analysts with Bitfinex in a note. That includes hedge funds, with bitcoin ETFs having net inflows for three consecutive days, with $510.7 million in net inflows reported in that time, according to data from CoinGlass. Ethereum falls 2.4% to $1,740, and XRP is down 2.5% to $1.09. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1408 ET - The June Fed minutes shed some additional light on the central bank's decision to publish a drastically shortened policy statement after Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair. A "majority of participants" in the meeting (n.b.: apparently not all) said that they "saw advantages in shortening the statement." There was broader agreement about removing the "easing bias" language from the policy statement: "most" officials wanted it gone. (This language, which suggested that more rate cuts would be the Fed's eventual next move, had drawn three dissents at the April meeting.) The conversation included discussion about how the public would perceive the much shorter statement, the minutes say. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1108 ET - The dollar is gaining from broader risk aversion after the U.S. and Iran resumed attacks and President Trump announced that the ceasefire deal is over, eToro's Lale Akoner says. "The dollar is benefiting from a more cautious tone across markets," she says. However, the latest moves so far don't represent a significant shift in sentiment. "For now, we think this looks more like a repricing of risk than a fundamental change in the market outlook," she says. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 101.155, having hit a 6-day high of 101.256 earlier in the session. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1051 ET - The International Monetary Fund upgraded its economic-growth forecast for the U.K., reflecting momentum in the run-up to the outbreak of the war in Iran. The IMF now expects gross domestic product to rise 1.0% this year, from 0.8% it forecast in April. For 2027, growth expectations are unchanged at 1.3%. U.K. activity expanded 1.4% in 2025, with this year's slowdown due to rising energy prices, tighter-than-anticipated monetary policy and uncertainty weighing on private spending, the IMF's Petya Koeva Brooks says. But at a time when U.K. public finances are in the spotlight, the government's fiscal strategy strikes the right balance between deficit reduction and growth-friendly spending, including frontloading of infrastructure investments, she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1050 ET - Rising oil prices could drive up inflation concerns, reducing the possibility of central banks cutting interest rates to support their economies, eToro's Lale Akoner says. President Trump on Wednesday said that the Iran ceasefire is over, causing oil prices to jump. "The ceasefire had helped contain some of the risk premium in oil; its collapse puts energy prices back at the centre of the market outlook," Akoner says. "If oil keeps rising, central banks may have less room to soften their policy stance," she says, adding that bond yields could consequently rise further. Brent crude rises 7.4% to $76.68 while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rise to a 6-week high of 4.593%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 08, 2026 20:14 ET (00:14 GMT)
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