As SK Hynix Lands in the U.S., Here's Why Investors Should be Wary of the Chip Sector's 'bubble-like' Volatility

Dow Jones07-10

Traders may hope South Korea-type turbulence won't be imported into Wall Street

SK Hynix will raise $26.5 billion in its U.S. offering.

One of the world's hottest stocks is coming to Wall Street. Memory-chip behemoth SK Hynix, which has seen its shares surge 640% on the Seoul exchange in just the last 12 months, will list its American depositary receipts on the Nasdaq, Friday.

U.S. tech investors may welcome the chance to get a more direct exposure to South Korea's second-biggest company after Samsung Electronics. However, they should be hoping it doesn't import some of that famous Seoul volatility, given the danger highlighted by BTIG's technical guru Jonathan Krinsky.

Back to Krinsky shortly, but first a note on just how turbulent the South Korean market has been. With Samsung (KR:005930) and SK Hynix (KR:000660) of late making up more than 50% of the Kospi Composite's KR:180721 market capitalization, sentiment shifts around the semiconductor sector have caused broader market tremors redolent of a malfunctioning cardiogram.

The Kospi Volatility index, which like the Cboe VIX measures implied market volatility, surged to 98 towards the end of June. In comparison, the VIX was trading just below 18.

That was a record spread of 70 points between the U.S. and South Korean volatility gauges, and was all the more remarkable because it came at a time when the Kospi was only just shy of its peak, notes Chris Watling, chief market strategist at Longview Economics.

"Normally, a pick up in volatility is associated with falling risk assets," said Watling, in a bulletin published Thursday. "Occasionally, though, volatility rises as risk assets rise. That is, a rising market with rising risk. That is a clear indication of bubble-like behavior."

Indeed, the previous two major spikes in Korean volatility have been associated with the major sell-offs during COVID and the global financial crisis, Watling observes.

BTIG's Krinsky is similarly wary, noting that while the performance of the U.S. semiconductor sector has been spectacular, so too has its volatility. "Extreme turbulence has become commonplace for the sector, but not something that is typically a bullish sign," he says in a note released Thursday. SOX constituents like Micron Technology $(MU)$ and Intel $(INTC)$ have seen very choppy trading of late.

Crunching the numbers on the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX, Krinsky observes it has moved 3% up or down 15 times in just the last 30 trading days, a statistic last seen in 2000.

The SOX on Thursday also closed above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, but below its 20-DMA, only the 19th time it has done that, Krinsky calculates. Describing it as a "high-volatility bounce after a drawdown within a primary uptrend," he says in the past, this dynamic has delivered generally poor returns for the SOX in the following weeks.

"While this was too early of a signal in '99, it had ominous outcomes in '95, '97, '00, '20, and '24 preceding -17% or worse drawdowns as well as June '07, one month before the final pre-great financial crisis high," he says.

Source: BTIG

The markets

U.S. stock-index futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are mixed as Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y dip. The dollar index DXY is a tad higher, as oil futures (CL.1) slip and gold futures (GC00) trade around $4,107 an ounce.

 
Key asset performance                                                Last       5d      1m       YTD     1y 
S&P 500                                                              7482.71    -0.01%  2.97%    9.31%   19.47% 
Nasdaq Composite                                                     25,870.65  -0.65%  2.79%    11.31%  25.52% 
10-year Treasury                                                     4.579      8.90    10.70    40.70   22.80 
Gold                                                                 4117.4     -0.44%  -2.75%   -4.96%  23.53% 
Oil                                                                  73.59      7.49%   -14.85%  28.18%  10.05% 
Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

Take control of your news. Make MarketWatch your preferred source on Google.

The buzz

Apollo Global Management $(APO)$ has reached an agreement in principle to purchase easyJet (UK:EZJ) in a GBP5.7 billion ($7.7 billion) deal, trumping a bid for the U.K.-listed low-cost airline by fellow private credit group Castlelake .

The International Energy Agency said global oil supplies are improving but renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran "highlight the risks of not reaching a lasting peace agreement, which is a must for the normalization in oil markets."

Japan's yen (USDJPY) and stocks JP:NIK rallied after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said that pension funds and the public should shift more assets into domestic markets.

Delta Air Lines' $(DAL)$ shares are higher after the company's second-quarter earnings beat analysts' forecasts and its outlook was also better than expected.

Netflix is exploring live TV and bundles as it struggles to keep viewers hooked.

The chart

Just 20 stocks account for 95% of the forecast growth in second-quarter earnings, according to Ryan Grabinski, strategist at institutional brokerage Strategas. "Micron and Nvidia are expected to be the largest contributors to second-quarter net income growth, accounting for 21.1% and 19.6%, respectively. Together, they'll drive more than 40% of total growth," he says. Big banks will kick off the unofficial start of the Q2 earnings season next week.

Top tickers

Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.

 
Ticker  Security name 
NVDA    Nvidia 
MU      Micron Technology 
SPCX    SpaceX 
TSLA    Tesla 
AMZN    Amazon 
AMD     Advanced Micro devices 
META    Meta Platforms 
TSM     Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing 
AAPL    Apple 
MSFT    Microsoft 

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July 10, 2026 07:14 ET (11:14 GMT)

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