The devastating prognosis for the UK’s public finances

cityam07-11

Government debt is projected to soar While much of the media obsesses over Nigel Farage’s fight with a man dressed as a bin, I have something more sobering to discuss as we kick off the weekend.The ...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe devastating prognosis for the UK’s public finances\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-11 08:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cityam.com/the-devastating-prognosis-for-the-uks-public-finances/><strong>cityam</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Government debt is projected to soar While much of the media obsesses over Nigel Farage’s fight with a man dressed as a bin, I have something more sobering to discuss as we kick off the weekend.The ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cityam.com/the-devastating-prognosis-for-the-uks-public-finances/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4585","symbol_name":"ETF&股票定投概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.cityam.com/the-devastating-prognosis-for-the-uks-public-finances/","article_id":"2650215806","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.cityam.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/westminster-cloud-e1783686371897.jpg?w=824&h=463&crop=1"],"rights":{"source":"cityam_highlight","url":"https://www.cityam.com/the-devastating-prognosis-for-the-uks-public-finances/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2650215806","pubTimestamp":1783730220,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"cityam_highlight","name":"cityam"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Government debt is projected to soar While much of the media obsesses over Nigel Farage’s fight with a man dressed as a bin, I have something more sobering to discuss as we kick off the weekend.The Office for Budget Responsibility’s report into fiscal risks and sustainability, published this week, is comfortably the most alarming yet. This is an annual review looking at the dangers facing the UK over the next half-century.However you look at it, our public finances are deteriorating rapidly, and unless action is taken, we could wind up in a car-crash situation.‘Unsustainable and ever-rising’“In nearly all of the scenarios we explore, debt eventually moves onto an unsustainable and ever-rising path,” the OBR writes, in one of dozens of damning verdicts over the way successive governments have managed the economy.Longstanding taxes are rapidly diminishing in their importance to the exchequer. 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This is an annual review looking at the dangers facing the UK over the next half-century.However you look at it, our public finances are deteriorating rapidly, and unless action is taken, we could wind up in a car-crash situation.‘Unsustainable and ever-rising’“In nearly all of the scenarios we explore, debt eventually moves onto an unsustainable and ever-rising path,” the OBR writes, in one of dozens of damning verdicts over the way successive governments have managed the economy.\n\nI’ll spare you having to go through each one in turn, but I do want to highlight four charts from the report which powerfully illustrate the sheer scale of the challenge facing the UK.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNews Updates\nStay ahead with our three daily briefings delivering all the key market moves, top business and political stories, and incisive analysis straight to your inbox.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nThe first is the most straightforward illustration of the problem. Based on current trends, public sector net debt (PSND) is set to swell from the roughly 100 per cent of GDP it is now to as much as 300 per cent by 2075. That is a truly staggering figure and the government could well see its ability to borrow wiped out long before we get there.That projection is based on certain assumptions the OBR has made about productivity improving. If it doesn’t improve, PSND could swell to an eyewatering 700 per cent of GDP. Even in a best-case scenario, where more productivity gains are made than the OBR predicts, debt will still swell to 180 per cent of GDP. That is the best-case scenario.The second chart looks at the effect of our net-zero transition on the tax base. It shows that as we move towards electric vehicles and renewable energy, the receipts from fuel duty and other environmental taxes will evaporate, with revenue raised from net zero-affected taxes tumbling from 1.6 per cent of GDP today to 0.5 per cent by 2075. \n\nLongstanding taxes are rapidly diminishing in their importance to the exchequer. That in part explains why the government has been scrambling to raise tax rates and find fresh things to tax over the past couple of years. That pattern, unfortunately for us taxpayers, is unlikely to change.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.46.0","shortVersion":"4.46.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2650215806","isCrawlerRequest":true}