Banks Share Prices At Record Highs: What Long-Term Investors Should Consider Now

The Smart Investor07-10 07:30

It has been fruitful being an investor in Singapore banks with DBS Group (SGX: D05), OCBC Limited (SGX: O39) and UOB Limited (SGX: U11) climbing sharply over the last five years. In fact, both DBS ...

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ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (SGD) ACC","SG9999001903.USD":"Aberdeen Standard Pacific Equity USD","SG9999013353.USD":"SCHRODER ASIAN INCOME FUND\"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU1934455863.HKD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","LU0011963245.USD":"abrdn SICAV I ASIA PACIFIC SUSTAINAB  LE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"银行股价创历史新高：长期投资者现在应该考虑什么","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"U11.SI":1.95,"D05.SI":1.97,"O39.SI":1.96},"content_text":"It has been fruitful being an investor in Singapore banks with DBS Group (SGX: D05), OCBC Limited (SGX: O39) and UOB Limited (SGX: U11) climbing sharply over the last five years.\n\nIn fact, both DBS and UOB just smashed through to new all-time highs yesterday (9 July 2026), touching S$70.27 and S$44.19 respectively.\n\nThe rally, however, has left valuations looking far less compelling than before. \n\nWe explore what long-term investors should consider – whether managing their positions or starting a fresh one. \n\nWhy Singapore Banks Have Rallied\nHere are some reasons anchoring the banks’ stunning multi-year rallies.\n\nHigher interest rates between 2022 and 2024 significantly boosted the banks’ net interest margins (NIMs), driving strong growth in net interest income (NII) and fueling record net profits. \n\nCrucially, even as interest rates have eased, the banks have been posting near-record earnings. \n\nThe three banks are still generating sizeable profits as seen in their first quarter report cards. DBS earned S$2.9 billion, ahead of OCBC’s S$2.0 billion and UOB’s S$1.4 billion. \n\nReturns on equity (ROE) remained respectable, led by DBS at 17.0%, ahead of OCBC’s 13.0% and UOB’s 11.5%. \n\nShareholders have benefited as well, with dividends generally trending higher over the past five years, and, in some cases, boosted by special dividends and share buybacks.  \n\nThe banks’ dividends are well-supported by strong common equity tier one (CET1) ratios: as of 31 March 2026, DBS has a fully phased-in CET1 ratio of 14.8%, while both UOB and OCBC have CET1 ratios standing at 15.2%.  \n\nWhy Share Price Alone Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story\nImportantly, just because share prices are high, it does not automatically mean overvaluation. \n\nWe stress that investors should also consider the earnings growth displayed by the company, alongside record-high prices. \n\nIf earnings continue growing, it’s only natural for the share price to follow suit. \n\nHaving established that, perhaps the question to ask when you see record high share prices is: have the business fundamentals improved alongside share price appreciation?\n\nWhat Long-Term Investors Should Focus On\nMoving forward, other than growing earnings, investors should also pay attention to the earnings quality displayed by the banks. \n\nAre they making headway in growing their non-interest income streams?  \n\nDividend payout ratios are also worth monitoring: the three banks currently distribute around half to three-fifths of their earnings as dividends.\n\nGiven their healthy CET1 ratios and management’s dividend-friendly policies, these dividends are expected to continue. \n\nOne last thing to add, all three banks continue to display prudence in their lending, each possessing a high-quality loan portfolio. \n\nThis is best seen in their low non-performing loan (NPL) ratios which range from 0.9% to 1.5%. \n\nThe Biggest Risk: Falling Interest Rates?\nThe biggest risk for the banks would be falling interest rates, reducing their NIMs and hampering their NII. \n\nThat said, this headwind could be buffered by the growth of fee income from wealth management, treasury income, and even insurance contributions (OCBC).  \n\nAdditionally, further regional expansion and the corresponding loan volume growth could help soften the blow from tighter NIMs. \n\nComparing the Three Banks\nDBS stands out for its digital banking strength, increasing earnings diversification (particularly from its wealth segment), and its capital return dividends that are expected to last until 2027. \n\nMeanwhile, OCBC continues to display decent momentum in its wealth management business, while its conservative balance sheet stands out, with an NPL ratio of 0.9% –  the lowest among the three banks. \n\n\nThe bank also offers diversification from its insurance business through Great Eastern. \n\nFinally, UOB offers investors exposure to the broader ASEAN region as it continues to digest its Citigroup acquisition. \n\nSubject to execution risks, this acquisition could pave the way for future regional banking growth opportunities. \n\nValuation: Are Banks Still Reasonably Priced?\nValuations for DBS and OCBC have become more demanding following their strong share price performance. \n\nDBS trades at 2.8x book value and 17.6x forward earnings, well above its five-year averages of 1.7x and 10.9x, respectively. \n\nLikewise, OCBC’s current P/B and forward P/E ratios of 1.9x and 15.1x are markedly higher than their historical averages of 1.2x and 9.6x.\n\nThe richer valuations are also reflected in dividend yields. \n\nOCBC’s trailing dividend yield stands at 3.6%, while DBS currently offers a trailing yield of around 4.4%.\n\nUOB, however, still looks relatively less stretched. \n\nThe bank currently trades at 1.4x book value and 11.8x forward earnings, only modestly above its five-year averages of 1.2x and 9.5x, respectively.\n\nIt currently offers a trailing dividend yield of 4.1%.\n\nHowever, given all three banks’ decent ROEs, which have seen increases compared to years prior, perhaps current valuations could be justified.  \n\nShould Investors Wait for a Pullback?\nYou could wait for more compelling valuation opportunities should the shares pull back, which would provide a better margin of safety. \n\nHowever, it might be better to build your positions over time, as it’s challenging to time markets. This way, you can reduce missing out on potential further share price appreciation while owning quality businesses like these three banks. \n\nCommon Mistakes Investors Make\nLet me be clear: it’s a common mistake to avoid owning quality businesses simply because share prices are at record highs. \n\nThat said, you should still be mindful of current valuations and avoid solely focusing on dividend yields. \n\nDo not let near-term interest rate movements shake you out of owning these quality banks. \n\nGet Smart: Buy Great Businesses, Not Cheap Headlines\nIn conclusion, do not let record-high share prices automatically turn you away from strong-performing businesses.\n\nWhile not cheap, Singapore banks’ current premium valuations are justified by their strong profitability and consistent dividends. \n\nInstead of trying to time your buy and sell decisions, long-term investors are better off focusing on whether these banks can continue delivering earnings growth and dividend payments. \n\nMany Singapore stocks fall behind inflation, which means your money quietly loses strength over time. Dividend stocks have a very different track record. Some continued delivering 6% to 13% every year across the toughest market conditions.\n\nIn this FREE report, discover 5 crisis-tested dividend stocks that kept rewarding investors while the market struggled. Download your dividend investing guide now.\n\nFollow us on Facebook, Instagram and Telegram for the latest investing news and analyses!\n\nDisclosure: Wilson H. does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.45.2","shortVersion":"4.45.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2650297062","isCrawlerRequest":true}