Saturday will see Norway and England face off in the 2026 World Cup quarterfinals, as will Argentina and Switzerland. But while the games will take place in Miami, Fla., and Kansas City, Mo., respectively, the excitement is mostly elsewhere, after the U.S. was knocked out of the tournament earlier this week. Investors looking for a World Cup bump might be feeling similarly let down.
While Tartan Army, as fans of the Scottish national team are known, famously drank Boston's local bars dry during their match, there was "no sign of a World Cup boost" for many beverage companies that TD Cowen's Robert Moscow covers.
Non-alcoholic beverages at least showed increased consumption, but that growth slowed to 2.2% in the last four weeks through June 27, down from 4.2% growth since the start of 2026. Alcohol sales fell 2.6% in the last two weeks ending on that same date, matching their year-to-date decline, and down 3.1% in the last four weeks through June 27.
"Alcohol scanner trends did not show the degree of acceleration many investors had anticipated during the World Cup," Moscow wrote in a note Tuesday. "That said, we believe off-premise data provides an incomplete picture, and we suspect a greater share of World Cup-related consumption shifted into on-premise occasions."
In other words, maybe people were drinking at bars and restaurants--like those Scottish fans -- but not buying as much as investors hoped when hosting their at-home watch parties.
As for specific companies, Constellation Brands has seen a modest improvement in beer sales, likely from the World Cup, even though it was "more subdued than what we expected," Moscow wrote. Anheuser-Busch total retail sales declined below consensus, as did those at Molson Coors. By contrast, Moscow said data from Diageo show trends stabilizing and Brown-Forman saw "solid improvement...driven by strong growth from the introduction of el Jimador New Mix," a canned cocktail.
However, part of the problem may be that some fans simply didn't make it to the games--or go anywhere, for that matter.
Early July data from the Transportation Security Administration showed "a modest softening in traffic momentum, with the trailing seven-day average running 2.2% below last year," wrote Bernstein analyst David Vernon on Tuesday. Southwest Airlines and Alaska Air group were the most exposed to weaker foot traffic, with roughly 3.8% and 5.2% declines, while both JetBlue and Frontier were down around 3%, he wrote. United and American fared slightly better, and were down 1.3% and 1.4% respectively. (American was a recent Barron's stock pick , as legacy airlines in general look better positioned to benefit from ongoing demand from higher-income consumers.)
"Across the eastern U.S., the major Florida nodes are running below last year, except for Miami, which is slightly up, suggesting that absent the World Cup effect we likely would have seen even weaker foot traffic in that zone," Vernon wrote. Outside Florida, the broader picture was also softer, with key Northeast gateways -- such as John F. Kennedy International, LaGuardia, and Newark Liberty International -- all posting declines in foot traffic and Chicago O'Hare "standing out as the only large hub with a significant increase in volumes ," he wrote.
The same was true on the West Coast, he noted, with major hubs in California, Texas, Nevada, and Minnesota all seeing weaker traffic than last year, "underscoring that the recent softening is broad-based and not confined to a single geography."
Airlines have been cutting capacity, and fares that went up with oil prices this spring haven't come down yet, which could offer some cushion for the companies come earnings season if the declines persist.
Nonetheless, the World Cup boost may turn out to be as disappointing as Team USA's performance. Or perhaps enthusiasm through the rest of the tournament, with the final game slated for July 19, may bolster data.
Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 11, 2026 10:23 ET (14:23 GMT)
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