The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1535 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME have now settled lower for nine consecutive sessions, finishing today down 1% to $2.353 a pound. This makes it the lowest cattle futures have finished at since March 26. The losing streak comes as part of a longer-term move off of record-high cattle futures seen this spring. The USDA reported another slide in boxed beef prices, with choice cuts falling another $1.38 per hundredweight to $379.82 per cwt. Slaughter rates will have to ease in order to spur wholesale prices to rebound, says Christopher Swift of Swift Trading Co. in a note. Lean hog futures settled down 1.5% to 98.125 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1516 ET - U.S. natural gas futures post their biggest single-day drop in more than three months as a larger-than-expected inventory build is followed by news of maintenance to be carried out at Freeport LNG in Texas. Last week's 61 Bcf storage injection increased the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 185 Bcf from 175 Bcf the week before. "Surpluses are expected to drop towards 150 Bcf or slightly under after the next several EIA reports account for the current hot U.S. pattern," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "However, as we have seen with today's EIA report, wind generation can significantly alter anticipated build sizes." Nymex natural gas settles down 6.2% at $3.012/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1454 ET - The Bank of Canada should keep its policy rate unchanged next week, and only consider hiking in about one year's time, says the CD Howe Institute's shadow monetary-policy council. The Canadian think tanks says encouraging GDP data is welcome, although it's not clear the momentum is sustainable due to trade uncertainty, trouble with the U.S.-Iran accord, and existing spare capacity. The nine panel members also debated the level of Canada's potential output. Some panelists wondered whether the BOC's estimate for the neutral rate--or the level at which rate policy neither adds nor subtracts from growth--was too high, citing how interest-sensitive housing activity has failed to mount a rebound. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
1439 ET - Roberto Perli, a New York Fed official who manages the Fed system's presence in financial markets, said reserve-management purchases aren't on a preset course, and the Open Market Trading Desk at the New York Fed can adjust amounts up or down depending on money-market conditions. In addition, Perli said that as Chairman Kevin Warsh appoints a task force on the Fed's balance sheet, the desk is well positioned to implement any changes and rate-control framework the committee might decide to pursue. The Fed began reserve-management purchases last December, motivated by expectations for a rapid drain of reserves in April, resulting from tax-payment flows into the Treasury General Account. Reserves in the banking system fall when the Treasury Department's bank account at the Fed grows. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1433 ET - Gold and silver futures settled the day higher in response to a shifting outlook toward inflation through the second half. According to minutes released by the Federal Reserve Wednesday, the Fed says that it foresees inflation rising, while the labor market shows weakness. This creates an environment where cutting the interest rate could become a possibility this year, according to the Fed. Lower interest rates are supportive for precious metal futures. "[There's] potential for renewed tightening if inflation persists," Rhona O'Connell of StoneX says in a note. Front-month gold closed up 1.5% to $4,130.60 a troy ounce, while silver added 3.8% to finish at $60.378 a troy ounce. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1425 ET - The Bank of Mexico isn't ignoring the Federal Reserve and the possibility of its raising interest rates, but minutes of the Mexican central bank's June meeting show it wouldn't respond "mechanically" to a Fed hike, Finamex chief economist Victor Gomez Ayala says in a note. The minutes reflect a Bank of Mexico more focused on domestic conditions, exchange rate stability and core inflation, than on synchronizing with the Fed, he says. Last month's unanimous decision to pause was the result of that, "and so, in our opinion, will the next move be, which has a greater probability of being a cut than a hike." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1415 ET - Bitcoin is up 1.5% as the market moves on from concerns over Strategy's unprofitable pile of the cryptocurrency--with the bitcoin treasury still billions underwater with an average price of $75,476. Investors have shifted back toward more-traditional indicators to move prices, says CoinDesk in a note. One sign would be an extended period of money returning to bitcoin ETFs, says the firm. "Sustained ETF inflows will signal stabilization of market confidence," CoinDesk says. While ETFs recorded 3 consecutive days with net inflows, yesterday was a net outflow day, according to data from CoinGlass--net outflows were $84.9 million.(kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1257 ET - The danger of wildfires across Canada has increased. The federal government says there are currently 796 active wildfires nationally, including 60 that are out of control. That puts the total this season at 3,137 fires and 1.4 million hectares burned, compared with 2,913 fires but an area of 4.6 million hectares burned at this time last year. Environment and Climate Change Canada's weather forecast points to above-average temperatures across much of the country from July through August, with dry conditions in regions including Manitoba and northwestern Ontario. (robb.stewart@wsj.com)
1250 ET - Canada faces weaker growth and prolonged uncertainty after the U.S. opted not to renew the existing USMCA trade pact, Oxford Economics' Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport say. They trim their 2027 GDP growth forecast for the country by 0.4 percentage point to 1.6% and now assume U.S.-Canada tariffs will remain permanently at current levels. The pair still expect GDP growth of 0.7% this year. Growth likely resumed this quarter after contracting two consecutive quarters. Stillo and Davenport note the economy has headwinds from a declining population, ongoing American tariffs, and prolonged trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty. Still, fiscal stimulus and slightly accommodative monetary policy should offer some support next year, they say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1206 ET - When discussing the Fed's balance sheet, New York Fed President John Williams said there are ways to shift demand for reserves, but that decisions should be based on an effective and safe banking system. Chairman Kevin Warsh has argued for shrinking the Fed's balance sheet to reduce the central bank's large presence in financial markets.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1148 ET - Maple Leaf Foods recent price increases have pressured sales volumes as Canadians pull back spending in the midst of an affordability crisis, Stifel's Martin Landry says. Those lower volumes will drag down the company's revenue growth, Landry said, who cut his growth forecast by roughly 300 basis points from previous projections to 3%. Landry expects the price hikes implemented back in February to continue weighing on upcoming 2Q results. "The Canadian consumer is under stress and facing an affordability crisis," he says, adding that "cold and rainy weather played a role, delaying the grilling season later into Q2 than usual." Landry points to a silver lining, however, and foresees improvements in consumer sentiment based on recent data indicating stronger spending intentions among Canadians. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1127 ET - Oil futures turn lower with the market leaning toward expectations of a quick end to the latest military strikes between the U.S. and Iran. "We expect the renewed tension in the Middle East between the U.S. and Iran to be relatively short-lived because both countries are constrained by practical economic and political realities," Vikas Dwivedi of Macquarie Group says in a note. For the U.S., there's the risk of higher prices returning with fewer mitigation sources available, and the risk of Iran materially damaging the Middle East's oil infrastructure, he says. Iran has arguably negotiated a "great deal," Dwivedi adds, and "we would be surprised if they overplay a good hand and test President Trump's patience and restraint for minimal remaining gain." WTI is down 1.5% at $72.44 a barrel and Brent is off 1.3% at $77.03. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 09, 2026 15:36 ET (19:36 GMT)
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