This has been valuation week for SpaceX, with more than a dozen analysts writing initial research following the company's record-setting June IPO.
Investors have had a lot of estimates, price targets, bull cases, and bear cases to digest. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk also has a thought about SpaceX's potential: It will be worth more than Earth.
"You don't seem to understand that SpaceX will be worth more than the rest of Earth if we accomplish our goals," wrote Musk in a post on X on Thursday afternoon. He was responding to a comment about AI costs.
That might be his most optimistic projection ever, and he's had a few. In 2022, he said that Tesla could be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined. That pair was worth about $4.4 trillion at the time. (Tesla is worth about $1.8 trillion today, based on fully diluted shares outstanding.)
To be sure, SpaceX operates in space, giving it an edge in growing its AI and communications businesses. Musk is fond of talking about the Kardashev Scale, a framework for evaluating civilizations proposed in the 1960s by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev.
The scale is about energy use. A level I civilization harnesses the energy on its planet. A level II civilization harnesses the power of its sun. And a Level III civilization harnesses the power of its galaxy. Musk's ambition is to harness the power of the sun, which, of course, is much larger than the Earth.
As for the non-planetary valuations, Raymond James has the highest price target for SpaceX at $800 per share. Citi's bull case for the stock is $900 per share, valuing SpaceX at about $12 trillion.
Those estimates, obviously, assume everything goes well for SpaceX, including the development of Starship, SpaceX's huge, fully reusable rocket that will drive down costs to reach orbit. Morgan Stanley has a $300 price target for SpaceX and a $600 bull case. Its bear case is $75 and assumes Starship isn't operational until 2029.
The numbers are all over the place. The average analyst price target is about $240, according to FactSet.
SpaceX stock was down 1.5% in premarket trading on Friday at $149.96, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were flat and up 0.2%, respectively.
As for estimates, Wall Street sees more than $630 billion in sales by 2031, up from about $39 billion expected for 2026. Operating income is expected to top $340 billion by 2031, up from about $1 billion in 2026.
That's a lot of growth. Wall Street doesn't project free cash flow, though. Analysts project SpaceX will need about $150 billion in extra financing between 2026 and 2031 to build out its orbital AI business.
The numbers swirling around SpaceX are mind-bogglingly large. Maybe planetary comparisons are appropriate.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 10, 2026 07:16 ET (11:16 GMT)
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