Wall Street loves SpaceX stock. The average analyst price target is about $240, valuing Elon Musk's rocket and AI company a cool $3.2 trillion, more than Microsoft, Amazon.com, or even Tesla.
That's impressive. There are, however, a few much higher numbers out there for investors to consider. Analyst bull cases are, well, to the moon.
The highest number Barron's has come across is from Citi. Analyst John Godyn rates shares Buy with a $200 price target, but his bull case is much higher. It's $900 per share.
"We believe this [$200] price target is a milestone along the path to $900-plus, which becomes realistic assuming key engineering achievements are demonstrated at scale," he wrote earlier this week. "Ultimately, the successful deployment of Starship will establish the most affordable and scalable path to unlocking the economic potential of space."
Starship is, without a doubt, SpaceX's secret weapon. The large, fully reusable rocket is in its testing phase and could drive down the cost of reaching orbit to tens or hundreds of dollars per kilogram, from thousands. Lower costs are key to value creation, enabling new businesses -- such as SpaceX's Starlink space-based broadband product, which has more than 10 million subscribers and profit margins north of 60%.
Godyn's bull case values SpaceX at about $12 trillion. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas isn't that optimistic. His official price target for SpaceX stock is higher, at $300 per share, but his bull case is only $600.
Jonas' bull case essentially assumes everything goes well for the company. Starship is operational in 2026, the Terafab semiconductor facility makes chips, and orbital AI satellites go up without a hitch.
He also has a bear case, though, at $75 a share. That assumes Starship isn't fully working until 2029, among other things.
What both analysts tacitly agree on is the importance of Starship. It is the technology that can make space-based solutions cheaper than ones developed on Earth.
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield also has bull and bear cases. His thinking is, to some extent, more straightforward, based around earnings per share and price-to-earnings ratios. His bull case assumes 2030 earnings per share of roughly $11 with investors paying 100 times. Discounted back to today, it yields an upside target of about $740 per shares.
His bear case assumes 2030 earnings per share of about $8 with investors only paying 20 times. Discounted back, that yields a downside target of about $100.
The numbers are all over the place, meaning investors should probably brace for volatility. That seems reasonable, given that SpaceX isn't expected to make money in 2026.
It is expected to be profitable in 2027, according to FactSet. Its capital spending needs, however, will keep it cash flow negative for years, meaning the company will be dependent on debt and equity markets to fund growth. That can also drive analysts to change earnings estimates, price targets, and ratings.
Whatever happens, SpaceX stock promises to be a wild ride.
SpaceX stock was TK in premarket trading at TK, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were TK and TK, respectively.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
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July 09, 2026 03:25 ET (07:25 GMT)
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