The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1901 ET - U.K. retail sales slid in June due to high temperatures, which kept many shoppers indoors, according to a report published Friday. Total footfall in the U.K. fell by 3.4% on year during the five weeks from May 31 to July 5, the latest report from the British Retail Consortium and retail technology company Sensormatic shows. "High streets saw the sharpest declines, while air-conditioned shopping centers and retail parks proved more resilient," BRC Chief Executive Helen Dickinson says. Coupled with the heat wave, consumer confidence remains low, with wider geopolitical and economic uncertainty continuing to weigh on discretionary spend, the report says. (andrea.figueras@wsj.com)
1007 ET - Businesses in Germany have signaled an intention to scale back employee numbers amid low growth expectations and an elevated inflation outlook, according to S&P Global's Business Outlook survey for June. The net balance of firms expecting an increase in business activity fell to the lowest since October 2024, while plans for jobs cuts have risen to their highest level ever outside of the pandemic, S&P says. "The war in the Middle East has taken a toll on Germany's near-term growth prospects and put paid to some of the burgeoning optimism seen at the turn of the year." The manufacturing sector noted a particular focus on improving productivity to offset high costs and rising competition from abroad, S&P says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1008 ET - U.K. business confidence fell to its lowest level since February 2025 on waning service-sector optimism, according to S&P Global's Business Outlook survey for June. Profit forecasts soured while companies in the services sector turned more pessimistic on hiring and capital investment, the survey shows. "The dip in sentiment came amid a backdrop of concerns about political uncertainty, inflation, weak consumer confidence and geopolitical risks," S&P says. Manufacturing input-cost expectations rose to their highest in more than four years, though firms were confident of being able to pass on prices to customers. "Firms often reflected efforts to adapt to these challenges, including pivoting to new export markets, product diversification, AI adoption and increased cost controls." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1545 ET - Treasury yields decline as President Trump says Tehran is seeking a deal, easing fears of escalation that might cripple energy supply chains. Oil prices fall around 2%, cooling inflation fears and curbing forecasts of an interest rate increase by the Fed. U.S. jobless claims remain within range and home sales unexpectedly shrink. Investors turn now to June CPI inflation, due next week. Citi economists expect signs of inflation cooling as energy prices lost steam last month. The WSJ Dollar Index slips 0.1%. The 10-year yield snaps a seven-day winning streak and falls 0.030 percentage point to 4.539%. The two-year drops 0.039 p.p. to 4.162%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1540 ET - Industrial production in Mexico likely retreated in May after the previous month's unexpectedly large expansion led by construction and a pick-up in manufacturing. Industrial output is expected to have fallen 0.9% seasonally adjusted from April, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Production is seen down 0.4% unadjusted from May 2025. National statistics institute Inegi is scheduled to release the May industrial production data on Friday. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1535 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME have now settled lower for nine consecutive sessions, finishing today down 1% to $2.353 a pound. This makes it the lowest cattle futures have finished at since March 26. The losing streak comes as part of a longer-term move off of record-high cattle futures seen this spring. The USDA reported another slide in boxed beef prices, with choice cuts falling another $1.38 per hundredweight to $379.82 per cwt. Slaughter rates will have to ease in order to spur wholesale prices to rebound, says Christopher Swift of Swift Trading Co. in a note. Lean hog futures settled down 1.5% to 98.125 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1516 ET - U.S. natural gas futures post their biggest single-day drop in more than three months as a larger-than-expected inventory build is followed by news of maintenance to be carried out at Freeport LNG in Texas. Last week's 61 Bcf storage injection increased the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 185 Bcf from 175 Bcf the week before. "Surpluses are expected to drop towards 150 Bcf or slightly under after the next several EIA reports account for the current hot U.S. pattern," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "However, as we have seen with today's EIA report, wind generation can significantly alter anticipated build sizes." Nymex natural gas settles down 6.2% at $3.012/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1454 ET - The Bank of Canada should keep its policy rate unchanged next week, and only consider hiking in about one year's time, says the CD Howe Institute's shadow monetary-policy council. The Canadian think tanks says encouraging GDP data is welcome, although it's not clear the momentum is sustainable due to trade uncertainty, trouble with the U.S.-Iran accord, and existing spare capacity. The nine panel members also debated the level of Canada's potential output. Some panelists wondered whether the BOC's estimate for the neutral rate--or the level at which rate policy neither adds nor subtracts from growth--was too high, citing how interest-sensitive housing activity has failed to mount a rebound. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
1439 ET - Roberto Perli, a New York Fed official who manages the Fed system's presence in financial markets, said reserve-management purchases aren't on a preset course, and the Open Market Trading Desk at the New York Fed can adjust amounts up or down depending on money-market conditions. In addition, Perli said that as Chairman Kevin Warsh appoints a task force on the Fed's balance sheet, the desk is well positioned to implement any changes and rate-control framework the committee might decide to pursue. The Fed began reserve-management purchases last December, motivated by expectations for a rapid drain of reserves in April, resulting from tax-payment flows into the Treasury General Account. Reserves in the banking system fall when the Treasury Department's bank account at the Fed grows. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1433 ET - Gold and silver futures settled the day higher in response to a shifting outlook toward inflation through the second half. According to minutes released by the Federal Reserve Wednesday, the Fed says that it foresees inflation rising, while the labor market shows weakness. This creates an environment where cutting the interest rate could become a possibility this year, according to the Fed. Lower interest rates are supportive for precious metal futures. "[There's] potential for renewed tightening if inflation persists," Rhona O'Connell of StoneX says in a note. Front-month gold closed up 1.5% to $4,130.60 a troy ounce, while silver added 3.8% to finish at $60.378 a troy ounce. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1425 ET - The Bank of Mexico isn't ignoring the Federal Reserve and the possibility of its raising interest rates, but minutes of the Mexican central bank's June meeting show it wouldn't respond "mechanically" to a Fed hike, Finamex chief economist Victor Gomez Ayala says in a note. The minutes reflect a Bank of Mexico more focused on domestic conditions, exchange rate stability and core inflation, than on synchronizing with the Fed, he says. Last month's unanimous decision to pause was the result of that, "and so, in our opinion, will the next move be, which has a greater probability of being a cut than a hike." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1415 ET - Bitcoin is up 1.5% as the market moves on from concerns over Strategy's unprofitable pile of the cryptocurrency--with the bitcoin treasury still billions underwater with an average price of $75,476. Investors have shifted back toward more-traditional indicators to move prices, says CoinDesk in a note. One sign would be an extended period of money returning to bitcoin ETFs, says the firm. "Sustained ETF inflows will signal stabilization of market confidence," CoinDesk says. While ETFs recorded 3 consecutive days with net inflows, yesterday was a net outflow day, according to data from CoinGlass--net outflows were $84.9 million.(kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 09, 2026 19:01 ET (23:01 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments