The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1552 ET - Treasury yields fall as inflation fears ease on mild U.S. CPI. President Trump cancels plans to charge a fee on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, cooling an increase in oil prices to just around 1.5%. Chairman Warsh says in a House hearing the Fed still has work to do on inflation. He will address the Senate tomorrow. Economists surveyed by WSJ expect June wholesale inflation to slow down. The WSJ Dollar Index slips 0.4%. The 10-year yield falls 0.024 percentage point to 4.585%. The two-year drops 0.069 p.p. to 4.193%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1547 ET - Crypto assets rise as markets adjust the outlook for U.S. monetary policy in light of softer-than-expected inflation data. June CPI comes in below expectations, triggering a reduction in bets that the Fed would increase interest rates this year. More inflation data are due tomorrow, with June's PPI gauge. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index rises 4%, on path to snap a two-day losing streak. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1355 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar reverse some of their decline triggered by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation readings. President Trump walks back plans to impose a 20% fee on cargo going through the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of upward pressure on energy costs. Oil futures rise more than 1%, but lose some momentum. Fed Chairman Warsh has his first Congressional hearing and tells Representatives the central bank "got some work to do on the inflation front." The WSJ Dollar Index slips 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.583% and the two-year 4.206%, both off lows reached after June CPI came in cooler than forecast. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1350 ET - Chairman Kevin Warsh concluded his testimony on the Hill today, addressing questions ranging from his task forces, commitment to price stability and communication framework. Warsh reiterated his view on establishing price stability. While acknowledging June's softer-than-expected CPI report, he said he does not want to "cherry pick data." When discussing certain inflation measures, Warsh noted he does not have a preferred measure from one of the reserve banks. "If I had a preferred measure, I wouldn't have called for a task force to go back to first principles," he said when addressing questions from lawmakers. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1144 ET - The median asking monthly rent across the 50 largest metros fell to $1,692 in June, Realtor.com says. That's down 1.5%, or $25, from a year ago. The drop marked the 35th straight month of year-over-year declines, as a multiyear multifamily construction boom continues to outpace demand. Builders spent years playing catch-up after the pandemic rent spike, and that supply is why rents have fallen for nearly three years straight, according to Realtor.com. A typical seasonal bump is likely this summer, but with new construction still running through the pipeline. Realtor.com expects year-over-year declines, and rent relief, to continue through 2026.(chris.wack@wsj.com)
1102 ET - Markets overestimate the likelihood of interest-rate increases by the Fed, SignatureFD's Tony Welch says. Futures markets price lower odds of a hike this month following June's soft CPI inflation data, but at least one rate increase this year remains in the cards, according to CME. Welch says inflation is trending lower, regardless of volatile fuel prices. "We just are not seeing the types of wage gains that would support broad economy-wide inflation for a long period of time," he says. He expects Chairman Warsh to try to keep inflation expectations around the Fed's 2% target. "I do believe he's trying to use his words to help set, keep inflation expectations anchored," he says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1055 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, could fall over the coming months as a weak economy could cause the Bank of England to cut interest rates, Capital Economics' Joe Maher says in a note. Potentially, the latest Middle East escalation could result in the BOE increasing interest rates. However, if tensions ease and oil prices fall, this is less likely, Maher says. "We expect CPI inflation will fall to the Bank's 2% target in 2027 on account of a weak labor market." Ten-year gilt yields could fall to 4.50% by the end of 2026, he says. Ten-year gilt yields are up 1.3 basis points at 4.976%, having earlier hit an 8-week high of 5.047%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1037 ET - Major Gulf stock indexes fall, extending recent losses across the region. This follows renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran which have sparked fears over supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is forecast to drop sharply to 0.7% in 2026 from 3.7% in 2025, before rebounding to 6.5% in 2027, the International Monetary Fund says in its July World Economic Outlook. The IMF says the downgrade is consistent with a longer closure of the Strait of Hormuz than assumed in April. The Dubai Financial Market General Index falls 1.3%; Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index loses 0.8%; and Abu Dhabi's benchmark index drops 0.5%. Qatar's market is closed for an official mourning holiday. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1006 ET - It's still a buyer's market in the U.S., Redfin says. There were an estimated 48.5% more home sellers than buyers in June, down slightly from 48.7% the month before and a peak of 50.1% in December. The biggest hurdle for Americans looking to buy a home is affordability, Redfin says, but those with the budget to move now--even in the face of record-high home prices and stubbornly high mortgage rates--have the power. There were an estimated 1.5 million sellers in the market in June, while there were an estimated 1 million buyers. Roughly 70% of U.S. housing markets are currently buyer's markets. The nation's leading buyer's markets are concentrated in the Sun Belt, where homebuying demand has been slow for several years after the pandemic boom. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1004 ET - The dollar faces further falls after data Tuesday showed U.S. inflation eased more than expected in June, Monex Europe analyst Nick Rees says in a note. Monex continues to expect unchanged rates from the Federal Reserve in 2026, subject to the present Middle East tensions cooling and oil prices remaining contained, he says. That could weaken the dollar given markets are still pricing in a rate rise by year-end, he says. The DXY dollar index falls 0.5% to 100.693. The data showed inflation cooled to 3.5% in June, below the 3.8% forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1001 ET - Gold prices climb 2% as a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation reading weighs on the dollar and boosts hopes for a less hawkish Federal Reserve. Consumer prices were up 3.5% in June from a year earlier, slowing more than expected and improving from the 4.2% inflation rate in May, leading investors to reduce bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its meeting at the end of the month. Gold futures in New York are up 2% to $4,084.50 a troy ounce. The U.S. dollar index is down 0.5% to 100.70, making dollar-denominated commodities less expensive for overseas buyers. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0936 ET - The U.S.-Iran war is driving up oil prices, raising inflation risk and the possibility of interest rates staying high, eToro's Lale Akoner says in a note. This could be bad news for bonds and stocks such as property, utilities and expensive growth stocks, she says. "Unless oil supplies are hit more seriously, the biggest market impact is likely to stay focused on oil prices, inflation expectations and investments most exposed to interest rates," Akoner says. Investors price in 42 basis points of interest-rate rises by the Bank of England in 2026, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 14, 2026 15:53 ET (19:53 GMT)
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