The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2006 ET - Evolution Mining's shifting thinking around its dividend has caught Macquarie's eye. Evolution is reviewing its dividend policy ahead of the FY 2026 result and reiterated it won't hold excess cash, the bank highlights in a note to clients. "In our view, there could be scope for Evolution to lift its 2H26 dividend above the targeted return of 50% of group cash flow, similar to the 1H26 where Evolution elected to pay out 67% of group cash flow," Macquarie says. It forecasts a 2H dividend of A$0.20, representing a 50% payout of cash flow. But in a scenario where Evolution pays out 67% of cash flow in 2H then this would increase to A$0.26, Macquarie says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2003 ET - Auckland International Airport's passenger traffic has been volatile in recent months but its bull at Macquarie is looking ahead to calmer times. International passengers fell 4% on year in June, while domestic passengers dropped by 5%. These reflect airline capacity reductions, softer conditions in New Zealand, elevated fuel costs and disruptions in the Middle East. Still, Macquarie says "resilient load factors suggest constrained supply, not structural demand loss." It retains an outperform call and 9.31 New Zealand dollars/share price target despite paring its FY26-28 EPS forecasts by 2.2%-4.6%. Auckland International Airport is down 0.6% at NZ$8.50. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1957 ET - Macquarie lowers its pricing assumptions for Amplitude Energy's uncontracted natural gas to 10 Australian dollars/GJ in FY27. That reflects structural oversupply in the market as the government requires 20% of gas output to be channeled into the domestic market. Macquarie trims its FY26 EPS forecast by 9.6%, even as it highlights that 80% of Amplitude's 2026 gas volumes are under contract. Its FY27 and FY28 EPS forecasts fall by 9.6% and 8.2%, respectively, due to lower gas-pricing assumptions. Macquarie rates Amplitude's stock at outperform. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1950 ET - Macquarie remains watchful on 29Metals's balance sheet as cash outflows persist. 29Metals's net cash more than halved to A$22 million in 2Q. Its available liquidity fell to A$202 million, from A$238 million. Macquarie says the balance sheet isn't yet critical but 29Metals will need to keep cutting costs to reach an inflection point. "We expect the company's balance sheet position to remain firmly in focus over the course of 2026 as the company ramps up capital expenditure at Gossan Valley and continues rehabilitation at Xantho Extended," Macquarie says, referring to 29Metals's mining projects. It retains a neutral call on 29Metals, which ended Wednesday at A$0.23. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1941 ET - While the market waits on copper-and-gold producer Evolution Mining's FY 2027 guidance, UBS expects cost estimates to rise. Analyst Levi Spry says consensus forecasts are for all-in sustaining costs of A$1,710/oz. That's well below UBS's A$1,930/oz estimate. UBS's FY 2027 gold-production forecast of 704,000 oz is broadly in line with market expectations of 701,000 oz. However, UBS anticipates output of some 57,000 tons of copper compared to consensus hopes of 70,000 tons. "Beyond a 10% throughput reduction at Ernest Henry as development ramps up post the FY26 weather events, Cowal is transitioning to stockpile processing, with limited growth elsewhere to offset the impact in FY27," UBS says. It has a neutral call on Evolution, which ended Wednesday at A$11.34. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1939 ET - Japanese stocks may fall amid fears of an escalation of the Middle East conflict and overnight weakness in U.S. chip stocks. President Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations in Iran after receiving briefings on new, escalatory options from top aides. Japanese chip names may decline after the U.S.'s PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 2.1% on Wednesday. Nikkei futures are 935 points lower at 67860 on the SGX. The dollar is at 162.07 yen versus 162.18 yen around Wednesday's Tokyo market close. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 1.5% higher at 68751.51 on Wednesday. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1934 ET - Cleanaway Waste Management's yawning discount with U.S. peers should start to narrow, says its bull at Macquarie. Cleanaway trades on an enterprise value-to-Ebit multiple of 14.2X. That is less than 21-25X for key U.S. peers, with Cleanaway weakening while comparable multiples have remained broadly resilient, Macquarie says. "This dispersion has emerged despite solid Cleanaway EPS growth from 2023," says Macquarie. "We see scope for the discount to narrow as earnings growth accelerates and stronger free cash flow improves confidence in the outlook." Its price target falls 1.5% to A$3.30/share. Still, this implies an enterprise value-to-Ebit multiple of 17X. Cleanaway ended Wednesday at A$2.34.(david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1920 ET - Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says the government's push to heavily regulate artificial-intelligence data centers will only apply to new projects. Albanese announced Wednesday that data centers will be required to source their own electrical power and to minimize water usage. "This will be for new proposals. You can't retrofit," he says. Australia has attracted vast data-center investment and community concern is growing rapidly about the potential effects. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1917 ET - Ampol's share price hit a two-year high this week as the U.S. and Iran trade new blows, prompting UBS to downgrade the stock to "neutral" from "buy" on valuation grounds. Analyst Tom Allen says Ampol is now trading on a multiple of 9.3x 2027 Ebit. That seems fair value to UBS, which adds it is in line with the historical average. Still, UBS says the re-escalation of the Middle East conflict suggests "upside risk on 2H26 refining Ebitda despite Lytton refinery commencing its 70-day planned maintenance from August 1." UBS raises its price target on Ampol by 16%, to A$36.65/share. Ampol ended Wednesday at A$37.14. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1905 ET - Evolution Mining's strong balance sheet and cash flow give it plenty of options, says Ord Minnett. Evolution was able to maintain a net cash position of A$18 million in 4Q, despite the payment of its interim dividend and major capex. Analyst Paul Kaner suggests Evolution could generate A$1 billion of free cash flow in FY27. Ord Minnett assumes Evolution increases its dividend by 5% half on half, unless the company makes a splash on M&A. It also sees improved evidence that organic growth projects at its existing Cowal, Ernest Henry and Northparkes mines will be brought forward. Ord Minnett cuts its price target by 6.6%, to A$12.80/share, and retains an "accumulate" call. Evolution ended Wednesday at A$11.34. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1850 ET - Santos's 2Q sales revenue likely jumped sharply on quarter, but RBC Capital Markets thinks it will fall short of consensus hopes. RBC pencils in quarterly sales revenue of US$1.515 billion, up 19% on 1Q. The estimate reflects stronger oil prices and contributions from Santos's new Barossa LNG project in Australia and Pikka oil field in Alaska. Still, RBC's forecast is below the US$1.553 billion anticipated by the market. Analyst Gordon Ramsay says the market is too aggressive with its estimates for LNG pricing. He points to a fall in the Japan Crude Cocktail oil price, which is used to index liquefied natural gas contract prices. "Overall, we expect Santos to realize US$11/mmbtu for its produced LNG, due to a higher proportion of contractual LNG pricing," RBC says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1843 ET - Woodside Energy's 2Q sales revenue was likely supported by a strong performance from its trading arm during the Middle East crisis. RBC Capital Markets forecasts quarterly revenue of US$3.73 billion, up from US$3.26 billion in 1Q. That's despite downtime at Woodside's Pluto liquefied natural gas plant in Australia. Analyst Gordon Ramsay expects Woodside benefited from higher crude oil prices and Japan-Korea Marker prices for LNG. "This implies trading volumes should be relatively strong for spot LNG cargoes following Qatar LNG project disruption," RBC says. It notes gas hub pricing in 2Q was at a premium to prices of contracted LNG. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 15, 2026 20:06 ET (00:06 GMT)
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