U.S. June CPI Falls Outside 10-yr Historical WSJ Forecasting Range

Dow Jones07-14 20:49

The U.S. consumer price index rose 3.5% in June from a year earlier, lower than May's increase and outside a range of historical forecasts for the indicator.

CPI is considered a key inflation data point that the Federal Reserve uses for rate decisions based on its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

For select economic indicators, including the CPI report, Dow Jones Newswires measures whether a reported statistic falls outside a historical range of WSJ forecasting, and if so, by how much. Those forecast ranges are based on an archive of surveys of economists the Journal has conducted over the past decade.

In the case of June's CPI, the range of WSJ forecasts relative to the actual reported number over that period was plus or minus 0.1 percentage point. Tuesday's CPI was lower than The Wall Street Journal forecast of 3.8%.

The ranges are made up of the median of forecasts over 10 years that came in lower than the reported number and the median of forecasts that came in higher.

Write to Jessica Coacci jessica.coacci@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 14, 2026 08:49 ET (12:49 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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Those forecast ranges are based on an archive of surveys of economists the Journal has conducted over the past decade. \n\n\n  In the case of June's CPI, the range of WSJ forecasts relative to the actual reported number over that period was plus or minus 0.1 percentage point. Tuesday's CPI was lower than The Wall Street Journal forecast of 3.8%. \n\n\n  The ranges are made up of the median of forecasts over 10 years that came in lower than the reported number and the median of forecasts that came in higher. \n\n\n  Write to Jessica Coacci jessica.coacci@wsj.com \n\n\n \n\n\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n\n\n  July 14, 2026 08:49 ET (12:49 GMT)\n\n\n  Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":true,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":true,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.45.2","shortVersion":"4.45.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2651068841","isCrawlerRequest":true}