Inflation is NOT coming from commodity prices: Larry Berman

Bloomberg07-14 01:22

The inflation headlines tend to focus on fuel prices and groceries because that impacts the news cycle and consumer in the most visible way (at the ballot box). The reality is that outside of periodic...

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The reality is that outside of periodic...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/opinion/2026/07/13/inflation-is-not-coming-from-commodity-prices-larry-berman/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"bnn_bloomberg_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation is NOT coming from commodity prices: Larry Berman</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation is NOT coming from commodity prices: Larry Berman\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-14 01:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/opinion/2026/07/13/inflation-is-not-coming-from-commodity-prices-larry-berman/><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The inflation headlines tend to focus on fuel prices and groceries because that impacts the news cycle and consumer in the most visible way (at the ballot box). The reality is that outside of periodic...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/opinion/2026/07/13/inflation-is-not-coming-from-commodity-prices-larry-berman/\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"EMCB","symbol_name":"智慧树新兴市场公司债券基金","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/opinion/2026/07/13/inflation-is-not-coming-from-commodity-prices-larry-berman/","article_id":"2651144158","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/resizer/v2/YMSOWKLXLPSQZA5GWCZ4563SA4.jpg?smart=true&auth=aaade99fa138fb58294b83c7db2c15e09c169014d18c562cd5f8c19d2c77c51e&width=500&height=333"],"rights":{"source":"bnn_bloomberg_highlight","url":"https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/opinion/2026/07/13/inflation-is-not-coming-from-commodity-prices-larry-berman/","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2651144158","pubTimestamp":1783963320,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"bnn_bloomberg_highlight","name":"Bloomberg"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The inflation headlines tend to focus on fuel prices and groceries because that impacts the news cycle and consumer in the most visible way (at the ballot box). ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"bnnbloomberg.ca","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"EMCB":"智慧树新兴市场公司债券基金","HGER":"Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF","GSG":"iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust","FLLA":"Franklin FTSE Latin America ETF","DCMT":"DoubleLine Commodity Strategy ETF","PPI":"AXS Astoria Real Assets ETF","RPAR":"RPAR Risk Parity ETF","RJI":"商品指数ETF-ELEMENTS","EDGH":"3EDGE Dynamic Hard Assets ETF","GNT":"GAMCO Natural Resources Gold & I","IYM":"基础材料ETF-iShares Dow Jones","CMCI":"Vaneck Cmci Commodity Strategy Etf","SDCI":"USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund","QPX":"AdvisorShares Q Dynamic Growth ETF","CMDT":"PIMCO Commodity Strategy Active ETF","TRTY":"Cambria Trinity ETF","BCI":"abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Strategy K-1 Free ETF","MAPP":"Harbor Multi Asset Explorers ETF","FTIF":"First Trust Bloomberg Inflation Sensitive Equity ETF","ILF":"拉美国家40 ETF-iShares S&P","GOTU":"高途","ASET":"FlexShares Real Assets Allocation Index Fund","CMDY":"iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF","GMOM":"Cambria Global Momentum ETF","HIDE":"ALPHA ARCHITECT HIGH INFLATION AND DEFLATION ETF","RAAX":"VanEck Real Assets ETF","ARP":"PMV ADAPTIVE RISK PARITY ETF","AVIE":"Avantis Inflation Focused Equity ETF","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","NBCM":"NEUBERGER BERMAN COMMODITY STRATEGY ETF","DJP":"iPath Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return ETN","FLSP":"Franklin Systematic Style Premia ETF","USCI":"美国商品指数基金","BK4582":"ESG ETF-MSCI","BK4506":"内地教育股","HCOM":"Hartford Schroders Commodity Strategy ETF","EPP":"亚太地区（除日本）ETF-iShares MSCI","FTRI":"First Trust Indxx Global Natural Resources Income ETF","FAAR":"First Trust Alternative Absolute Return Strategy ETF","BCD":"abrdn Bloomberg All Commodity Longer Dated Strategy K-1 Free ETF","BK4510":"在线教育","IGE":"北美自然资源ETF-iShares","CCRV":"iShares Commodity Curve Carry Strategy ETF","PIT":"VanEck Commodity Strategy ETF","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","BK4204":"教育服务","BK4531":"中概回港概念","EUM":"ProShares Short MSCI Emerging Ma","RLY":"SPDR SSgA Multi-Asset Real Return ETF","UCIB":"ETRACS CMCI Total Return ETN Series B"},"translate_title":"通货膨胀不是来自大宗商品价格：拉里·伯曼","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CCRV":1.5,"RJI":1.5,"UCIB":1.5,"RAAX":1.5,"NBCM":1.5,"GOTU":1.5,"BCI":1.5,"GSG":1.5,"DJP":1.5,"ARP":1.5,"FLLA":1.5,"HCOM":1.5,"SDCI":1.5,"GMOM":1.5,"HIDE":1.5,"EDGH":1.5,"IGE":1.5,"PPI":1.5,"IYM":1.5,"DCMT":1.5,"MAPP":1.5,"FAAR":1.5,"FTIF":1.5,"BCD":1.5,"CMCI":1.5,"EPP":1.5,"ASET":1.5,"EMCB":1.5,"PIT":1.5,"AVIE":1.5,"CMDY":1.5,"FLSP":1.5,"QPX":1.5,"GNT":1.5,"HGER":1.5,"CMDT":1.5,"RLY":1.5,"RPAR":1.5,"EUM":1.5,"USCI":1.5,"FTRI":1.5,"TRTY":1.5,"ILF":1.5},"content_text":"The inflation headlines tend to focus on fuel prices and groceries because that impacts the news cycle and consumer in the most visible way (at the ballot box). The reality is that outside of periodic spikes, commodity prices have actually gone down relative to inflation for decades. Productivity enhancing factors of production like machinery, medicines, pesticides, and technology have by and large taken cost of production down. Labour costs are a relatively small input cost to the basic goods supply chain. When pricing commodity indexes (read actually investing in them or an ETF that tracks them), the table below shows average annual returns, which in some cases is just the cash market return and in others, less or actual losses. These do not include management fees. So I will reiterate again, while uncorrelated generally to stocks and bonds, buy and hold (outside of the metals) for portfolios makes ZERO sense. Commodities are cyclical and need to be traded.ClassAnnual Return Since 01/01/1991Broad Commodities3.4%Industrial Metals4.3%Agriculture1.15%Energy-0.19%Precious Metals6.88%Grains0.64%Berman July 13 The biggest input to inflation is cost of labour in a service economy like we have in North America. The Covid shock to wages may be an anomaly that is slowly normalizing or it could be that since 2011, when the first Baby Boomer hit 65, that changes to the supply of labour is now inflationary and the most important factor. Berman July 13 The interesting thing to note is what the impact of artificial intelligence will have in terms of labour productivity in the future and the supply and demand side of the labour picture. One thing is clear, lower levels of immigration and the aging demographic makes the supply demand equation really hard to forecast. We know the NEW FOMC leadership are creating task forces to better understand these dynamics, this is a good thing versus the DOT plot. Will they be better able to manage monetary policy? That is the question. We can expect the U.S. Administration to try to manage the headline inflation risks heading into the U.S. mid-term elections in November. We should expect markets and commodity prices to remain volatile for longer than expected. We just heard this from Delta Airlines. We will be tuned to earnings calls to listen for what corporate America has to say on this dynamic. Will corporate America be absorbing rising input costs or passing along to consumers. That is the question I’m looking to answer, we know the middle east is a mess that is likely only temporarily curtailed due to U.S. political factors.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.45.2","shortVersion":"4.45.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2651144158","isCrawlerRequest":true}