The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0319 GMT - Bitcoin falls in early Asian trade, as investors are focusing on U.S. inflation data due this week. Potentially higher inflation has been making investors nervous about embracing riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies. A hotter-than-expected CPI print would bolster expectations of a Fed rate hike before year-end, which would weigh on bitcoin, says IG market analyst Tony Sycamore in a note. Bitcoin falls 1.8% to $63,039.27, LSEG data show. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0256 GMT - The Singapore dollar weakens against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session amid rising Middle East tensions, which typically enhance the allure of safe-haven currencies such as the greenback. The U.S. conducted multiple waves of strikes on Iranian military targets Sunday, while Iranian forces fired at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. "A renewed focus on energy risks" has pressured emerging-market currencies, two strategists at OCBC Group Research say in a report. Higher energy prices are usually perceived to be negative for currencies of oil-importing countries such as those in Asia. The U.S. dollar is 0.2% higher at 1.2938 Singapore dollars, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0246 GMT - Singapore's advance 2Q GDP growth estimate due Tuesday is likely to show an on-year expansion of 5.3%, according to the median forecast of nine economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. That would be slower than the 6.0% growth seen in 1Q. Growth was likely supported by artificial intelligence-related demand for tech products, Moody's Analytics economists say in a note. However, the Middle East conflict is expected to have weighed on the petrochemical, logistics and transport sectors, they add. The economy is estimated to have grown 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis in 2Q, unchanged from 1Q, according to seven polled economists.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0136 GMT - The Reserve Bank of Australia remains uneasy about the inflation outlook, and will be keeping further interest rate increases on the table for now, says Warren Hogan, economic advisor at Judo Bank. The Brent crude oil price has increased slightly to US$77 a barrel, even as the Iran conflict escalates, he says. For now, markets are pricing a contained supply hit rather than a sustained one, Hogan adds. Still, the RBA will want to have greater confidence that the fuel shock won't have a longer-lasting impact, he adds. It's not there yet. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0128 GMT - The yen and JGB sentiment are likely supported in the near-term by Japanese Finance Minister Katayama's remarks last Friday, strategists at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities say in a research report. "The comments act as a verbal intervention against yen weakness and super-long JGB volatility," they say. Each one-percentage-point increase in the Government Pension Investment Fund's domestic bond allocation would "mechanically" imply around 0.66 trillion yen of buying pressure in seven- to 11-year JGBs and around Y0.8 trillion in JGBs with tenors beyond 11 years, they estimate. These estimates are based on GPIF's security-level market-value weights as of end-March 2026. The "mechanical flow risk is not trivial," they add. The 10-year JGB yield is down 0.5 bps at 2.755%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0112 GMT - Malaysia is likely to increase fiscal spending as Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim seeks to strengthen support for the ruling Pakatan Harapan coalition ahead of the next general election, says Barclays economist Brian Tan. He now expects Malaysia's fiscal deficit to narrow to 3.6% of GDP in 2026, versus 3.5% forecast earlier. While risk of an early general election has increased after Pakatan Harapan lost ground to coalition partner Barisan Nasional in the Johor state election, Tan still expects polls to be held closer to the government's term expiry in early 2028. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0111 GMT - While oil prices have fallen quite a bit from the Iran conflict's peak, Barclays says its inflation forecasts have worsened. In a note to clients, it says the path for the Federal Reserve to stay on hold this year and not hike has narrowed considerably in recent months. Still, it's the bank's base case for now, it adds. The oil shock came and went, but inflation has not, and the reasons why go to the overall robustness of the U.S. economy is right now, Barclays says. So falling oil prices won't bail the Fed out of its inflation headaches, it adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0059 GMT - Asian currencies mostly weaken against the dollar in early trade amid rising Middle East tensions. The U.S. conducted multiple waves of strikes on Iranian military targets Sunday, while Iranian forces fired at commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. "The flare-up of military confrontation between the U.S. and Iran" is likely to cause the dollar and the yen to strengthen, CBA's Global Economic & Markets Research team says in a research report. Both the dollar and the yen are widely perceived to be safe-haven currencies. The U.S. Dollar Index rises 0.2% to 101.122, while the Australian dollar is little changed at 112.38 yen, FactSet data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0041 GMT - Malaysia's 2Q GDP growth likely slowed to 4.4% from 5.4% in the prior quarter, says Moody's Analytics in a note. Robust demand for electronics supported manufacturing across 1H, but supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict added drag, it says. Government subsidies for petrol insulated households from the worst of the energy shock, given that Malaysia is a net oil importer. However, industries reliant on diesel and non-subsidized fuel were exposed to global prices, it says. The GDP data are due Friday. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
0037 GMT - JGBs rise in price terms in the early Tokyo session on the prospects of more inflows into domestic securities. Japanese Finance Minister Katayama's remarks last Friday "raised the possibility that GPIF could eventually rebalance part of its foreign asset holdings into JPY-denominated assets," two members of JPMorgan's Global Market Strategy say in a research report. "From a JGB market perspective, any increase in GPIF's allocation to domestic bonds would be supportive," the members add. The GPIF is one of the world's biggest pension funds and manages about $1.8 trillion in assets. Five-year JGB yield edges 1 bp lower to 1.970%; 10-year yield drops 2 bps to 2.740%, and 20-year yield falls 4 bps to 3.710%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0024 GMT - The Nikkei Stock Average rises 0.3% to 68774.71, erasing earlier losses as optimism surrounding artificial-intelligence outweigh Middle East tensions. SK Hynix's historic U.S. trading debut has helped restore investors' appetite for the AI trade. "The semiconductor story was a support," NAB's senior economist Taylor Nugent says in commentary. Among best performers on Japan's benchmark index, Lasertec rises 4.9%, Furukawa Electric adds 4.3%, and Tokyo Ohka Kogyo is 4.05% higher. However, Japanese stock market's gains may be capped after the U.S. said it launched new strikes on Iran Sunday evening. The dollar is at 161.95 yen, versus 161.54 yen around Friday's Tokyo market close. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0015 GMT - China's 2Q economic growth likely slowed to 4.7% from 5.0% in the prior quarter, says Moody's Analytics in a note. The country's composition of growth is a concern, it says, with soft household consumption, weak investment and the prolonged property downturn weighing on the domestic economy. This ismaking China increasingly dependent on exports and manufacturing for growth, it says. The GDP data are due Wednesday. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 12, 2026 23:19 ET (03:19 GMT)
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