US equity investors will focus on Q2 earnings this week, with big money-centre banks kicking off the earnings season in earnest, and consumer price inflation data amid an escalation of tensions with Iran.
* JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citibank (C), Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS), and Wells Fargo (WFC) are among banks reporting quarterly earnings, with investors expecting results to help counter tense geopolitics. ASML (ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) are among the others reporting, giving investors a fresh take on the state of the so-called AI trade.
* Investors will look out for consumer and wholesale price inflation data amid the market pricing in at least one interest rate increase this year. Additionally, Federal Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony is due, alongside retail sales, Michigan consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations.
* The combined probability that rates will be higher by 25 or 50 basis points from current levels by December is around 70%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Investors will parse Warsh's testimony, which comes amid a worsening geopolitical environment and higher crude oil prices. Fed's June meeting minutes, released last week, showed "quite a divide" on the rate path given the impact of the war in Iran on inflation, a Stifel note said on Friday.
* The US and Iran each asserted Monday they controlled the Strait of Hormuz after a weekend of attacks stretching across the wider Middle East, further threatening any diplomacy to end the war, the Associated Press reported early Monday.
* Iran and the US are nearly at the midway point of a 60-day period that was supposed to result in a permanent end to the war, the news report said. Instead, it has devolved into a series of attacks over the strait and its future, worrying world leaders that the Iran war could fully resume, it added.
* Early Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures jumped 3.4% to $73.87 a barrel.
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