The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0838 GMT - BP could shoot through its debt-reduction target a year early, thanks to rapid progress in the second half, RBC Capital Markets' Biraj Borkhataria and Adnan Dhanani say in a research note. The U.K. energy major estimates it ended the second quarter with net debt ranging from $22 billion to $23 billion, which compares with $25.3 billion as of March 31. BP is targeting net debt of between $14 billion and $18 billion by the end of 2027, but RBC estimates the company could reduce its net debt to around $8 billion by year-end. "This should coincide with BP presenting a refined corporate plan and medium-term outlook, in our view," the analysts add. Shares rise 2.6%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0833 GMT - BP could be laying the groundwork for more asset sales with its latest write-downs of about $1 billion in its transition businesses, RBC Capital Markets' Biraj Borkhataria and Adnan Dhanani say. The U.K. energy major disclosed the charges in an update that otherwise showed a strong performance in the second quarter, the analysts say in a research note. "Call it pre-divestment window dressing...better to take the hit now than show explicit value destruction at the point of sale," the analysts say. "We believe both LightsourceBP and Archaea could face the chopping block--although not formally announced by the company as far--and see no place for either in BP's portfolio long term." BP shares rise 3.2%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0825 GMT - A spike in oil prices could push the U.S. and Iran to de-escalate the Middle East war, BCA Research's Felix Vezina-Poirier says in a note. "Both sides are willing to flex, but neither wants the consequences of a much larger escalation," he says. As oil prices climb further, this could give way to defusing the conflict, Vezina-Poirier says. "There is a risk oil breaks above the $70 to $90 a barrel 'kinetic equilibrium' range, but such a spike would itself trigger the mechanism for de-escalation," he says. Brent crude rises 4% to $86.65 per barrel. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0811 GMT - BP's strong performance against key metrics in the second quarter suggest consensus estimates are likely to be increased, J.P. Morgan's Matthew Lofting and Tianyu Wu say in a research note. The U.K. energy major followed peer Shell in releasing a strong second-quarter update, the analysts say. BP's oil-trading result was slightly higher than an already exceptional performance in the first quarter, they add. Upstream price realizations were ahead of expectations and downstream operations were also strong, according to JPM. This could trigger double-digit upward revisions to consensus estimates on group earnings and cash flow from operations across divisions, the analysts say. BP shares rise 3%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0806 GMT - The dollar could rise if upcoming data on U.S. underlying inflation for June are higher than expected, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller on Monday said if there was another hot core inflation print, the Fed will need to consider tightening policy in the near term. His comments will make the U.S. rate market and the dollar even more sensitive to the inflation data at 1230 GMT, Hardman says. "An upside surprise for core inflation could reinforce the dollar's upward momentum even if headline inflation slows due to lower energy prices." The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 101.159. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0751 GMT - BP's second-quarter update looks strong, with pricing benefits ahead of expectations and a robust trading performance, J.P. Morgan's Matthew Lofting and Tianyu Wu say in a research note. "We expect the shares to be supported [Tuesday], driven also by this week's Middle East-led move higher on oil," the analysts say. The U.K. energy group expects price realizations to lead to benefits of between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion in its oil production-and-operations segment and of $500 million to $700 million in its gas-and-low carbon energy segment. These seem stronger than the BP's rule-of-thumb price sensitivity as pricing caught up with market moves in February and March, according to JPM. BP shares rise 2.75%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0748 GMT - A retightening of short-term U.S.-eurozone rate differentials is keeping the euro afloat against the dollar amid renewed U.S.-Iran conflict, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The rebound in oil prices came as European Central Bank interest-rate rise expectations were dwindling, leaving room for euro front-end rates to recover, he says. However, this might not offer sustainable support to the euro if energy prices continue rising. Markets could find it difficult to price in more than two ECB rate rises by year-end considering the cautious stance of policymakers recently and the negative terms of trade implications of higher energy prices, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1387 and ING sees a risk of it falling to $1.10.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0744 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, jump to an eight-week high as an escalating U.S.-Iran conflict pushes up oil prices, raising inflation risk. The U.S. attacked Iranian targets for the third consecutive night while Iran said it struck two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Investors have raised their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in 2026 given the rise in energy prices. Ten-year gilt yields rise 8 basis points to 5.046%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0715 GMT - Bitcoin rises marginally but continues to trade in a narrow range ahead of U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony before Congress. "Bitcoin has been boxed in the same range since mid-June, resistance at $64,441 capping every rally, support at $58,457 absorbing the selling, and the renewed Iran tensions haven't broken it either way," Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva says in a note. Exchange traded funds are split between inflows and outflows, netting slightly positive, in recent days, she says. This stability will be tested with the inflation data at 1230 GMT and Warsh's testimony at 1400 GMT. Bitcoin rises 0.8% to $62,619, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0659 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields rise in early trade, with the 10-year German Bund yield hitting an eight-week high of 3.114%, up around 4 basis points on the day, according to Tradeweb. The rise in yields is driven by a sharp increase in oil prices due to elevated tensions between the U.S. and Iran and concerns that the Strait of Hormuz looks unlikely to return to normal. "Rising tensions in the Middle East are dominating markets," Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. Eurozone bond markets will also take clues from U.S. inflation data at 1230 GMT, as well as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's Congress testimony. Both could shape the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's rate path. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0544 GMT - Traders should watch for whether diplomacy could bring a solution to the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz, to determine whether the conflict ends or smolders, Macquarie Group's Thierry Wizman says in a note. "So far, of course, that hasn't happened; the recurrence of the kinetic attacks that began last week continued over the weekend," the global foreign-exchange and rates strategist says. The escalation of the fight and the prospect that traffic through the strait will be completely blocked again (from both sides) remain the principal risks to global growth through their effect on supply constraints, reflected in oil prices, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0534 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise in overnight trading, driven by higher oil prices. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.634%, an almost eight-week high, before retreating to 4.620%, still up 1.2 basis points on the day, according to Tradeweb. The two-year Treasury yield hit an intraday high of 4.294%, the highest since February 2025, before easing back to 4.283%. "Investors still expect the Middle East situation to find a resolution rather than spill back into an all-out conflict," says Navellier & Associates' Louis Navellier in a note. While oil prices are rising as the standoff in the Strait of Hormuz continues, they are still below the war-time peak, he says. Brent oil is up 2% at $84.95 a barrel. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 14, 2026 04:38 ET (08:38 GMT)
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