The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0915 ET - The cost of insuring Middle East nations' sovereign debt against default rises as the U.S.-Iran conflict persists. Geopolitical tensions and oil supply disruptions are weighing on investor sentiment. Qatar's five-year sovereign credit default swaps rise 1 basis point to 33bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. Bahrain's five-year CDS climb 6bps to 285bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0707 ET - SSE's business update is a solid statement with strong hydropower output, RBC Capital Markets analyst Alexander Wheeler says in a research note. The U.K energy company continues to deliver on plan with positive news on the installation at offshore wind farm Dogger Bank and a significant ramp-up in networks capital expenditure, Wheeler says. Furthermore, there is potential for further investment opportunity after an update from the U.K.'s power grid operator, the analyst adds. SSE shares trade 2.1% lower at 2,417 pence. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)
0637 ET - Palm ended higher. Overnight strength in rival oils amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and concerns over the impact of a super El Nino on future supply likely supported prices, Kenanga Futures writes in a note. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for October delivery rose 5 ringgit to 4,606 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)
0632 ET - The U.S.-Iran conflict prevents sustained dollar losses after recent lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. Inflationary risks remain as the conflict lifts oil prices, she says. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates should therefore persist for some time, she says. The re-escalation in the Iran war has had a limited impact so far but the longer energy prices stay elevated, the more likely second-round inflation effects become. "As long as the market sees this risk and therefore continues to price in U.S. rate hikes, dollar weakness is likely to remain contained." The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.537 after reaching a four-week low of 100.353 Wednesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0630 ET - Shrinking oil inventories have left global markets vulnerable, says Canada's export credit agency. Export Development Canada forecasts oil prices will average around $96 a barrel this year and nearly $84 a barrel in 2027, reflecting ongoing uncertainty and efforts to rebuild depleted stocks as a buffer against future flareups. Stuart Bergman, EDC's chief economist, says storage tanks scattered around the world have become the oil market's "marginal producer."Inventories accumulated before the crisis and emergency stockpile releases have helped offset reduced activity, but at the cost of inventories falling below seasonal norms, Bergman notes. He says a permanent agreement to end the war and restoring ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to pre-crisis levels would ease constraints, but oil markets remain tight and vulnerable to further disruptions and price volatility if geopolitical risks escalate. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0624 ET - Investors are betting on the Bank of England increasing interest rates in November as the U.K. economy shows resilience. The U.K. monthly GDP rose by 0.1% in May, up from a 0.1% contraction in April."The U.K. economy weathered the rise in energy prices and mortgage rates caused by the Iran war better than we had feared," Berenberg's Andrew Wishart says in a note. The Middle East conflict and inflation concerns are also driving expectations of the BOE raising interest rates. Markets price in a total of 38 basis points of BOE interest rate rises in 2026, with the first quarter-point increase fully priced in for November, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0521 ET - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar edge higher, reversing some of their previous falls. Yields and the dollar fell Wednesday after June U.S. producer price data echoed Tuesday's below-forecast CPI figures. "Together the two reports pulled yields and the dollar lower as inflation concerns abated to some extent," DHF Capital S.A's Bas Kooijman says in a note. Markets will monitor incoming data for confirmation of a sustained trend of slowing inflation. However, ongoing Middle East tensions threaten to push oil prices higher again, he says. The two-year Tresury yield rises 2.8 basis points to 4.155%, while the 10-year yield rises 2.4 basis points to 4.568%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.537. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0436 ET - The euro has limited scope to extend recent gains against the dollar unless there are clear signs of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The rise in gas prices, which has a bigger impact on the eurozone's terms of trade than crude prices, should prevent the euro from building any idiosyncratic strength, he says. "We expect euro-dollar sellers to emerge around the $1.1500 area, and see a greater chance of range-bound stabilization at this stage rather than a break higher. " The euro trades flat at $1.1463 after reaching a four-week high of $1.1482 Thursday, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0355 ET - Oil prices steady after three days of gains as the U.S. and Iran face a diplomatic gridlock, with fresh attacks and a naval blockade on Tehran's ports threatening a full-scale conflict. "Although tanker traffic has continued with U.S. assistance, the escalation threatens shuttle-based export routes that had helped the U.A.E. and other Gulf producers keep crude moving during earlier disruptions," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. Meanwhile, President Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations, The Wall Street Journal reported. Options include stepping up airstrikes and sending ground forces to seize Iranian islands near Hormuz. In early trading, Brent crude is down 0.3% to $84.73 a barrel, while WTI futures are flat at $79.62 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0301 ET - Eurozone government bond yields are marginally higher in opening trade, reflecting moves in U.S. Treasury yields overnight. Thursday's eurozone data calender is thin, while government bond supply will come from Spain and France. Brent oil prices appear to have stabilized around $85 per barrel, but prices of refined products continue to rise and European natural gas prices have also increased, Danske's Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen says in a note. "Combined with the recent flare-up in tensions and break of the ceasefire, this should keep the European Central on track to deliver an additional hike in September while we think a move in July is pre-emptive," she says. The 10-year Bund yield rises 0.8 basis points to 3.099%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0233 ET - Seatrium's stock could see a boost in 2H as its order book expands, say Macquarie Capital analysts in a note. The Singapore offshore and marine company's contracting activity was low in 1H, but the order flow is likely to pick up in 2H and drive gains in the stock, they say. The analysts note the company is confident of sustaining its gross profit margin expansion, which could reach 9.0% in 1H, above Macquarie's estimate. They see an attractive risk-reward profile for the stock at its current levels around 1.94 Singapore dollars, which implies around 0.95X its price-to-book ratio. Macquarie retains its neutral rating and S$2.58 target price. Shares are down 1.0% at S$1.99. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0145 ET - The European Central Bank, which raised interest rates in June, is expected to remain on hold next week, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. "The data received since the June meeting is keeping the ECB in between its mild and baseline scenarios, and recent remarks from the president and other Governing Council members confirm our and consensus expectations for a hold," the analysts say. More data is needed to decide on the next steps, they say, adding that the recent oil-price volatility is a stark reminder of the fundamental lack of certainty around the path of energy prices. "This alone should steer the ECB away from leaning strongly in any direction in either statement or press conference." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 16, 2026 09:15 ET (13:15 GMT)
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