The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0907 GMT - The cost of insuring Bahrain's sovereign debt against default rises to its highest level since April as the Middle East conflict deepens. The U.S. continued attacks on Iran on Wednesday while Iran said it struck U.S. assets in Bahrain and Kuwait. Investors are taking precaution due to uncertainty surrounding the conflict. Bahrain's five-year credit default swaps rise 1 basis point to 280bps, a 3-month high, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0905 GMT - The dollar has scope to fall further after its modest negative reaction to Tuesday's lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. "Despite the muted FX reaction, the scale of weakness in the CPI report certainly helps weaken on key pillar of support for the dollar--the prospect of a near-term [interest-rate] hike," he says. However, the re-escalation in the Middle East conflict and surge in oil prices makes it difficult to trade with conviction, he says. The DXY dollar index trades flat at 100.922 after earlier declines.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0858 GMT - The U.S. tech sector could benefit if oil prices stabilize and investors reduce expectations of interest-rate rises by the U.S. Federal Reserve, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Rising oil prices have caused markets to price in a high possibility of Fed interest-rate rises in the coming months, and lowered demand for risk assets. Nonetheless, if energy prices climb further, inflation concerns could rise and reduce risk appetite, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0833 GMT - The Norwegian krone falls after data showed Norway's inflation eased to an annual rate of 2.7% in June. However, there should be good demand for the krone at lower levels, ING's Chris Turner says in note. The krone should benefit from improved risk sentiment after Tuesday's lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data dampened expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate rises, he says. Higher energy prices also support the currency along with potentially lower volatility favoring carry trades where investors borrow in low yielding currencies to invest in higher yielding ones, he says. "We have a one-month target at 11.05 for euro-krone, but the move could easily extend to 10.95." The euro rises 0.3% to 11.0949 krone from 11.0619 before the data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0831 GMT - The Chinese economy may stabilize if Beijing steps up policy support, UOB economist Ho Woei Chen says in a research note. China's real GDP growth slowed more than expected for 2Q, the economist says. The bank lowers its 2026 growth forecast to 4.6% from 4.7% after factoring in GDP growth of around 4.6% for 2H. "While a large-scale stimulus package appears unlikely, selective and targeted measures to bolster consumption and investment could help stabilise China's economic momentum after the slowdown in 2Q," UOB says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0822 GMT - Gold could fall further if expectations for higher U.S. interest rates remain entrenched, as weakening investment demand strips away one of the metal's strongest sources of support, according to ANZ. Rising Treasury yields have made risk-free assets more attractive relative to nonyielding bullion. At the same time, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance has boosted confidence in the central bank's independence, prompting investors to unwind trades that favored gold as a hedge against currency debasement. "If expectations for Fed tightening stay firm, gold is likely to remain under pressure until lower price levels reinvigorate retail and institutional investment flows and jewelry demand," ANZ analysts say. "Until that occurs, a drop towards $3,500 an ounce is a possibility." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0808 GMT - Gold slips after climbing more than 2% in the previous session as investors balance a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation print and risks stemming from higher energy prices linked to the Iran war. "Lower gasoline prices helped ease inflationary pressures, prompting investors to scale back bets on tighter monetary policy and supporting a rebound in gold prices," analysts at MUFG say. "However, renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and higher oil prices continue to pose upside risks to inflation, while Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated that further policy tightening remains an option if price pressures persist." In early trading, New York gold futures are down 1% to $4,030.50 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0807 GMT - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung described the domestic stock market as unstable, saying changes are needed. "The domestic equities market saw an unfathomable plunge in a short period of time, wouldn't we need time and changes for stability?" he asked cabinet members at a televised policy meeting. He also pointed to South Korea's failure to be included in the MSCI Developed Market Index for another consecutive year in its 2026 review, saying inclusion would help stabilize the local equities market. Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said currency stabilization is also needed, adding that the introduction of 24-hour won trading might help speed up the process, though further structural improvements will be required. (jihye.lee@wsj.com)
0748 GMT - Beijing is likely to step up policy support to boost domestic demand, HSBC economists say in a research note. China's real GDP growth slowed to 4.3% on year, the softest pace since end-2022 and missing expectations, they point out. "While trade may continue to provide a cushion for support, we expect Beijing to step up policy support and guidance at the upcoming July Politburo meeting at month-end to help shore up domestic demand," HSBC says. Beijing is likely to accelerate deployment of this year's fiscal support, as well as usage of new financing policy tools, which can help lift investment and consumption, HSBC says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0744 GMT - Oil prices rise, with Brent crude trading just shy of $86 a barrel after the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iran. "Although Trump withdrew a proposal to impose transit fees on ships using Hormuz, the renewed conflict has pushed oil prices to their highest level in about a month, while broader regional tensions intensified following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. The escalation has undermined confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz despite U.S. assurances that the waterway remains open, reversing what had been a strong recovery in Persian Gulf shipping flows and threatening the rebound in exports from Gulf producers. In early European trading, Brent crude rises 1.2% to $85.78 a barrel, while WTI is up 1.1% to $80.19 a barrel. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0732 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, climb as oil prices remain high and inflation concerns linger. Brent crude price rises 1.3% to $85.8 per barrel as the Middle East conflict continues. Investors have priced in increased prospects of interest-rate rises in the coming months from the Bank of England and other major central banks as a result. U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh on Tuesday reiterated there would be no tolerance for high inflation, although U.S. inflation data for June were weaker than expected. Ten-year gilt yields rise 4.2 basis points to last trade at 4.990%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0717 GMT - The euro's gains against the dollar in response to Tuesday's lower-than-anticipated U.S. inflation data are likely to be limited, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. European natural gas prices are back at levels seen in mid-March due to renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and one softer U.S. inflation print doesn't make a trend, he says. In the absence of a major improvement in energy markets, the euro could struggle to break above the $1.1460-$1.1470 area and could fall to the $1.1360-$1.1380 area if oil prices rise another leg higher, he says. However, there does seem to be strong demand for the euro below $1.14, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to $1.1428. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 15, 2026 05:07 ET (09:07 GMT)
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