The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2041 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar in early trade, but may be buoyed by reduced Fed rate-hike expectations. The "U.S. CPI data for June came in well below expectations," CBA's Samara Hammoud says in a research report. "Markets unwound expectations for a July Federal Reserve interest rate hike from around 45% to 18% following the data release," says the international economist and currency strategist. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 162.17 yen, but edges 0.1% higher to 1,490.60 won, while the Australian dollar is 0.1% higher at US$0.6979, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2036 ET - The Bank of Korea is expected to unanimously raise its policy rate at Thursday's meeting. All 25 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the central bank to raise its base rate from 2.50% to 2.75%. BOK Gov. Shin has repeatedly signaled a tightening bias, citing strong economic growth and inflation well above the bank's 2% target. That would mark the bank's first rate hike since January 2023. "We believe the decision will feature a unanimous preference for a 25bp hike," says Barclays economist Bum Ki Son. "We expect the market focus to be on the prospects for a back-to-back hike in August and how the BOK will address this expectation." (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
2017 ET - JGBs are mixed in early Tokyo trade, but may track overnight price gains in U.S. Treasurys. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. "A softer-than-expected U.S. CPI report and strong U.S. bank earnings boosted investor sentiment with bonds and equities rallying," NAB's Skye Masters says in commentary. "Treasuries have led a rally in global bonds," the head of Markets Research adds. Benchmark 10-year JGB futures are 0.42 yen higher at 128.08 yen, while the 30-year JGB yield is up 2 bps at 3.755%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2009 ET - The Nikkei Stock Average rises 0.8% to 68271.05, tracking Wall Street's gains overnight. Softer U.S. inflation data has "all but ruled out a July Fed rate hike, boosting equities and strengthening the case for policymakers to keep interest rates on hold over the summer months," says Axel Rudolph, chief technical analyst at IG, in an email. Among the best performers on Japan's benchmark index, Kioxia Holdings rises 5.5%, Ibiden adds 4.9%, and Taiyo Yuden is 4.5% higher. The dollar is at 162.18 yen versus 162.33 yen around Tuesday's Tokyo market close. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1949 ET - Japanese stocks may rise, tracking Wall Street's gains overnight. Blockbuster bank earnings and a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report boosted market sentiment. Domestic technology names may also get a boost from tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite's 0.9% rise on Tuesday. However, the Japanese benchmark index's advance may be capped amid ongoing Middle East tensions. The Nikkei futures are 710 points higher at 68355 on the SGX. The dollar is at 162.19 yen versus 162.33 yen around Tuesday's Tokyo market close. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 0.7% higher at 67743.50 on Tuesday. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1552 ET - Treasury yields fall as inflation fears ease on mild U.S. CPI. President Trump cancels plans to charge a fee on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz, cooling an increase in oil prices to just around 1.5%. Chairman Warsh says in a House hearing the Fed still has work to do on inflation. He will address the Senate tomorrow. Economists surveyed by WSJ expect June wholesale inflation to slow down. The WSJ Dollar Index slips 0.4%. The 10-year yield falls 0.024 percentage point to 4.585%. The two-year drops 0.069 p.p. to 4.193%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1547 ET - Crypto assets rise as markets adjust the outlook for U.S. monetary policy in light of softer-than-expected inflation data. June CPI comes in below expectations, triggering a reduction in bets that the Fed would increase interest rates this year. More inflation data are due tomorrow, with June's PPI gauge. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index rises 4%, on path to snap a two-day losing streak. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1355 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar reverse some of their decline triggered by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation readings. President Trump walks back plans to impose a 20% fee on cargo going through the Strait of Hormuz, easing fears of upward pressure on energy costs. Oil futures rise more than 1%, but lose some momentum. Fed Chairman Warsh has his first Congressional hearing and tells Representatives the central bank "got some work to do on the inflation front." The WSJ Dollar Index slips 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.583% and the two-year 4.206%, both off lows reached after June CPI came in cooler than forecast. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1350 ET - Chairman Kevin Warsh concluded his testimony on the Hill today, addressing questions ranging from his task forces, commitment to price stability and communication framework. Warsh reiterated his view on establishing price stability. While acknowledging June's softer-than-expected CPI report, he said he does not want to "cherry pick data." When discussing certain inflation measures, Warsh noted he does not have a preferred measure from one of the reserve banks. "If I had a preferred measure, I wouldn't have called for a task force to go back to first principles," he said when addressing questions from lawmakers. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1144 ET - The median asking monthly rent across the 50 largest metros fell to $1,692 in June, Realtor.com says. That's down 1.5%, or $25, from a year ago. The drop marked the 35th straight month of year-over-year declines, as a multiyear multifamily construction boom continues to outpace demand. Builders spent years playing catch-up after the pandemic rent spike, and that supply is why rents have fallen for nearly three years straight, according to Realtor.com. A typical seasonal bump is likely this summer, but with new construction still running through the pipeline. Realtor.com expects year-over-year declines, and rent relief, to continue through 2026.(chris.wack@wsj.com)
1102 ET - Markets overestimate the likelihood of interest-rate increases by the Fed, SignatureFD's Tony Welch says. Futures markets price lower odds of a hike this month following June's soft CPI inflation data, but at least one rate increase this year remains in the cards, according to CME. Welch says inflation is trending lower, regardless of volatile fuel prices. "We just are not seeing the types of wage gains that would support broad economy-wide inflation for a long period of time," he says. He expects Chairman Warsh to try to keep inflation expectations around the Fed's 2% target. "I do believe he's trying to use his words to help set, keep inflation expectations anchored," he says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1055 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, could fall over the coming months as a weak economy could cause the Bank of England to cut interest rates, Capital Economics' Joe Maher says in a note. Potentially, the latest Middle East escalation could result in the BOE increasing interest rates. However, if tensions ease and oil prices fall, this is less likely, Maher says. "We expect CPI inflation will fall to the Bank's 2% target in 2027 on account of a weak labor market." Ten-year gilt yields could fall to 4.50% by the end of 2026, he says. Ten-year gilt yields are up 1.3 basis points at 4.976%, having earlier hit an 8-week high of 5.047%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 14, 2026 20:41 ET (00:41 GMT)
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