Global Growth Could Slow to 2.5% This Year, Moody's Analytics Says

Dow Jones09:48

0148 GMT - Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% in 2026 amid a K-shaped world economy where some industries and economies are running hot, and others cold, says Moody's Analytics in commentary. U.S. GDP growth could average just 2% and Chinese growth slow to 4.6% this year, it says. While booming AI demand has saved the global economy from a sharper slowdown, geopolitical risks, stretched asset valuations and volatility in financial markets could easily flip the outlook from slow growth to recession, cautions. A fresh flare-up or a drawn-out disruption to movement through the Strait of Hormuz will sharpen the trade-offs facing central banks--cut rates to support their economies and risk faster inflation, or raise rates to curb inflation and inflict more damage on growth, it adds. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 15, 2026 21:48 ET (01:48 GMT)

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U.S. GDP growth could average just 2% and Chinese growth slow to 4.6% this year, it says. While booming AI demand has saved the global economy from a sharper slowdown, geopolitical risks, stretched asset valuations and volatility in financial markets could easily flip the outlook from slow growth to recession, cautions. A fresh flare-up or a drawn-out disruption to movement through the Strait of Hormuz will sharpen the trade-offs facing central banks--cut rates to support their economies and risk faster inflation, or raise rates to curb inflation and inflict more damage on growth, it adds. 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