Rivian stock has been volatile lately. Earnings will probably only add to the problem.
The electric-vehicle maker's shares have traded above $20 and below $15 over the past month. Investors were initially euphoric about the start of R2 deliveries and strong second-quarter delivery numbers.
The R2 is Rivian's lower-price family of EVs that will help boost sales down the road. The R1 family of vehicles can easily cost more than $80,000 each, and the market for cars that expensive, let alone EVs, is small.
As for deliveries, Rivian sold 12,194 cars in the quarter, up from 10,661 a year ago. Wall Street was looking for closer to 11,000 cars.
Things were looking up, but Rivian doesn't make money yet and still needs external capital to reach that point. Management used the rally to sell stock.
Wall Street projects the company will need about $8 billion over the next 11 quarters, through the end of 2028. (Positive free cash flow is projected in 2029.) The company ended the second quarter with about $4.8 billion.
That sent shares down. What's more, along with the capital raise, the company announced second-quarter revenue of $1.3 billion. Wall Street was looking for closer to $1.5 billion. Lower average selling prices from selling more commercial vans are partly responsible for the "miss."
Investors might expect that the stock, at a recent $17.31, might be de-risked heading into the quarter. But there are cost pressures, said Barclays analyst Dan Levy.
Prices for everything are up including lithium for batteries, memory chips for onboard computers, and copper to carry electric current. The R2 is also new, which means some manufacturing start-up costs.
"2Q is widely viewed as a noisy quarter for Rivian," wrote Levy in a Tuesday report. If there is a silver lining, he thinks investors won't focus too much on costs.
"Investors are increasingly focused on R2's go-forward trajectory," he added. "Accordingly, the earnings call will likely revolve around Rivian's upcoming opportunities. I.e., R2 profitability/demand, autonomous vehicle development, [and] licensing opportunities."
In particular, Levy wants an update about the R2 backlog to get a sense of demand. Strong demand will likely trump weak margins when Rivian reports results on July 30. Still, demand strength is difficult to project.
The second quarter was also messy with high oil prices, which make EVs a little more attractive relative to gasoline-powered cars. Oil prices were back to pre-Iran-war levels until fighting broke out again over the weekend.
The best bet for investors is to expect more volatility around Rivian earnings.
Rivian stock was up 0.8% shortly after the market open Tuesday at $17.45, while S&P 500 futures were up 0.2%.
Levy rates Rivian stock Hold and has a $14 price target for shares.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 14, 2026 09:57 ET (13:57 GMT)
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