The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1001 ET - The Japanese yen should recover by the end of next year as the fundamentals remain stacked in the currency's favor, Capital Economics economist John Higgins says in a note. The yen's current weakness is puzzling, he says. The five-year U.S.-Japan sovereign bond yield gap has shifted in the yen's favor, he says. The once significantly positive U.S.-Japan real inflation-adjusted policy rate gap has also evaporated. Japan's terms of trade have improved on a net basis in recent years, even allowing from some re-worsening as the Iran war drives up oil prices, he says. The dollar trades flat at 162.22 yen and Capital Economics expects it to fall to 150.00 by end-2027. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0950 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are modestly lower as soft LNG feedgas flows due to terminal maintenance partially offset demand to meet summer cooling needs. Demand remains strong in the coming days due to high pressure over much of the U.S. with highs of upper 80s to 100s, NatGasWeather.com says in a note. But power-sector use has been underperforming this summer as renewables take a greater share of supply, the forecaster adds. "Overall, weather patterns lean to the bullish side, although would be more impressive if it was a little hotter over the East in the 6-15 day period." Nymex natural gas is off 0.9% at $2.878/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0917 ET - The recent rise in U.K. government bond yields, or gilt yields, is mainly driven by the rise in oil prices, rather than U.K.-specific factors, UBS Global Research strategists say in a note. Spreads of gilts to U.S. Treasurys and German Bunds are contained, indicating that the geopolitical concerns are driving the increase in gilt yields, they say. Ten-year gilt yields climb 2.6 basis points to last trade at 4.974%, Tradeweb data show. Ten-year German Bund yields rise 3.3bps to 3.105%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0914 ET - Crude futures are moderately higher after the U.S. resumed its blockade of ships in and out of Iranian ports, although President Trump withdrew his plan for the U.S. to charge a 20% fee for protecting other ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Short of another major U.S. bombing campaign, or use of ground troops, "we are viewing this closure of the strait as simply setting back the clock to where it was prior to the Memorandum of Understanding," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. While the $120 a barrel levels reached at the start of the war are probably out of reach, "additional price gains of as much as 8%-10% cannot be ruled out," the firm adds. WTI is up 0.5% at $79.74 a barrel, and Brent is up 0.1% at $84.83.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0910 ET - CBOT wheat is up 3% overnight, climbing in reaction to mounting attacks from Ukraine on Russian shipping vessels in the Sea of Azov. Analysts are reacting to media reports of over 100 Russian ships being hit by Ukrainian drones over the past nine days, which is expected to significantly hobble Russia's ability to ship products like wheat. "Retaliation is likely coming for Ukraine's grain export ports and routes, raising global concern over wheat supplies from the Black Sea region," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Also lifting CBOT grains are the renewed hostilities in the U.S.-Iran conflict, with traders adding risk premium ahead of any potential new complications out of the Strait of Hormuz. Corn is up 0.8% and soybeans rise 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0856 ET - Sterling should remain resilient to the re-escalation in the Middle East conflict if markets remain optimistic that tensions won't last, UBS Global Wealth Management analysts say in a note. Front-end rate differentials have moved in sterling's favor since early last week, they say. However, prolonged escalation is a risk. "In this scenario, [U.K. government bonds] could continue to sell off to the point where, in combination with the negative growth shock, the fiscal trajectory really does become problematic." For now, gilt yields haven't risen to an extent that could erode fiscal headroom, they say. The euro falls 0.2% to a one-year low of 0.8513 pounds. UBS expects it reach 0.8500 at the end of third quarter and the year. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0849 ET - An artificial intelligence bubble is seen as the biggest tail risk event by 45% of investors in the Bank of America global fund manager survey for July. A tail risk event is one that has a low probability of happening, but could have a big impact if it occurred. A second wave of inflation is ranked as the second biggest tail risk event according to 26% of fund managers. Another 14% of investors in the survey cite a "disorderly rise in bond yields" as the biggest tail risk event. The survey was conducted between July 2 and July 9. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0650 ET - Palm oil edged lower amid ample supply. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has again escalated, palm oil supply is ample, weighing on the vegetable oil's prices, Nanhua Futures says in a note. However, in the mid- and long-term, supply is expected to be tight due to a likely strong El Nino event, they say. Malaysia's palm oil exports during the July 1-15 period are estimated to have risen 4.0% on month to 646,438 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Wednesday. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery ended 4 ringgit lower at 4,569 ringgit a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0630 ET - Despite eurozone industrial production proving resilient since the Iran conflict began, the sector remains structurally imbalanced, Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics says in a note. Industry in the 21-nation currency area has been in decline since before the pandemic, he says, noting a significant divergence between sectors. "Its performance is "K-shaped": output in high-tech and defense industries is rising whereas it is falling in most other sectors," Allen-Reynolds says. Most traditional manufacturing sectors remain in structural decline, weighed down by high energy costs and competition from China, he says. "And we doubt that any changes to EU trade policy in the near term will make a substantial difference," Allen-Reynolds says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0627 ET - U.S. Treasury yields rise as the collapse of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran pushes oil prices higher. Yields reverse direction after Tuesday's decline prompted by lower-than-expected inflation in June. "Importantly, the details of the [CPI] report were encouraging beyond the energy-driven decline in headline inflation," says Pimco economist Tiffany Wilding in a note. "Evidence of AI-related cost pass-through remained mixed," she says. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rises 2 basis points to 4.604%, according to Tradeweb. The U.S. dollar stays stable, with the DXY index at 100.974. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0617 ET - Eurozone industry continues to show its resilience to the U.S.-Iran conflict, likely providing a modest boost to GDP in the second quarter of the year, Oxford Economics' Iain Simmons says in a note. Production overall declined 0.2% on month in May, but excluding a large 5.2% negative Irish contraction, output overall rose 0.3%, he says. However, part of the strength appears concentrated in precautionary stockbuilding--such as in chemicals, refineries and plastics--and in the Dutch semiconductor machinery industry, rather than reflecting broad-based improvements, Simmons says. "Continued disruption to the fragile ceasefire could also test this resilience," he adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0614 ET - A net 4% of investors polled in Bank of America's global fund manager survey for July expect lower global inflation. This is a big flip from June when net 45% expected higher inflation, it says. Inflation expectations were lowered as the fund manager survey's year-end oil price forecast slumped 17% to $71 per barrel from $86 per barrel in June on a weighted-average basis. Just 2% of investors expect oil to trade above $90 per barrel. The outlook on rates fell alongside the inflation outlook, with a net 1% expecting higher short-term rates, down from 34%, BofA says. The survey was conducted between July 2 and July 9. Oil prices have risen since then due to renewed Middle East tensions, with Brent crude last at $85.67. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 15, 2026 10:01 ET (14:01 GMT)
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