The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1147 ET - The situation in Iran is precarious and could escalate following the collapse of Trump's ceasefire, meaning prices for consumer goods could remain elevated for longer than expected JPMorgan analysts Richard Shane and Hong Zhang say in a research note. Any price change could lag the decline in underlying oil prices. And the resumption of fighting reintroduces a risk of energy price spikes that would squeeze lower- and middle-income consumers most acutely, the analysts say. They believe the full impact of these geopolitical shocks on the real economy has yet to be realized. Two forces compounding the geopolitical risk is a cooling labor market and an upward shifting rate outlook, the analysts say. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1120 ET - Investors should brace for rising Treasury yields, especially in shorter-term notes, Bank of America's Meghan Swiber and Eleanor Xiao write. They say foreign demand for U.S. government debt is softening and traders currently betting on falling yields are bound to reverse their positions. The expected repricing could gather momentum this week if inflation beats forecasts. Swiber and Xiao add, however, that fund inflows offset some of the headwinds. The 10-year yield is at 4.598%, rising on elevated tension in the Middle East and rallying oil prices. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1107 ET - Supply of euro-denominated credit by U.S. companies could reach a record high of 120 billion euros in 2026, ING strategists say in a note. The euro credit market provides a cost-saving advantage over the U.S. dollar credit market, leading to more issuance in the euro market, they say. "We argue that 120 billion euros won't put too much pressure on the market and should not crowd out the European issuers." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1048 ET - Bitcoin managed to stay rangebound last week, between the $62,000 to $64,000 range, according to data from CoinGlass. That's even with ongoing concerns surrounding the global inflation picture and bitcoin's viability amid sales of bitcoin announced by Strategy, owner of the largest bitcoin treasury in the world. "Bitcoin was tested from every direction last week," says analysts with Bitfinex, noting that the relatively narrow range that bitcoin traded at should be encouraging for investors. That said, the sentiment around inflation globally looks to keep bitcoin's movement to the upside limited, says the firm. Bitcoin is down 2.6% to $62,496. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1031 ET - The rebound in bitcoin prices seen late last week is under pressure to start this week, this as the Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Iran conflicts are garnering more attention from investors that are worried about rising hostilities in both clashes. "Bitcoin [is] in retreat this morning breaking beneath $63K as the geopolitical escalation triggers negative factors for the crypto sphere," says Monte Safieddine of Capital.com in a note. Ongoing war is adding to concerns about rising inflation worldwide. Bitcoin falls 2.8% to $62,357. Other major cryptocurrencies are lower as well, with ethereum down 2.7% to $1,771, XRP dropping 2.5% to $1.07, and solana down 2.1% to $75.80. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1015 ET - The median U.S. home-sale price rose 2.2% year over year to a high of $408,776 in June, Redfin says. U.S. existing-home sales ticked up 0.1% month over month to 4.4 million in June--the highest level since November 2022. Existing home sales rose 4.2% from last June. Affluent Bay Area and South Florida homebuyers were major drivers of June's strong housing market. Billionaires, executives and other ultra-wealthy Americans are moving to Florida and buying up expensive homes due to its favorable tax environment and sunny climate. The Bay Area is being driven by the AI boom, with a surge in luxury home sales driving prices up. Pending home sales ticked up 0.5% in June. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1010 ET - Spreads on euro-denominated credit tightened last week as debt issuance slowed, ING's Jeroen van den Broek and Timothy Rahill say in a note. Fund inflows into euro credit market also supported demand for the asset, causing spreads to narrow, the strategists say. In contrast dollar-denominated credit spreads widened as debt supply by U.S. tech companies stayed elevated, they say. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1009 ET - Sterling could fall in the near term as U.K. political risks return to the fore, ING analysts say in a note. Andy Burnham is expected to become prime minister on July 20. Burnham will likely pick Energy Secretary Ed Miliband as treasury chief which could be negative for sterling given his preference for fiscal expansion, they say. There is unlikely to be a positive re-assessment of U.K. growth prospects if Burnham takes charge. "Here, he will have to raise taxes if he wants to increase social spending." ING expects sterling to fall to $1.31 in three months and the euro to rise to 0.87 pounds. Sterling last trades down 0.2% at $1.3384 and the euro rises 0.2% to 0.8528 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0954 ET - Companies could continue to exercise prudence in their borrowing, maintaining relatively low debt levels due to geopolitical concerns, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. Middle East tensions are likely to limit companies from issuing high levels of debt, he says. As a result, credit spreads are expected to remain tight, "supported by very healthy corporate fundamentals and a very strong bid for the asset class," Valencia says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0953 ET - The Norwegian krone has room to strengthen on the prospect of higher oil prices and the Norges Bank raising interest rates later this year, ING analysts say in a note. Oil prices are at risk of rising in the short term regardless of fresh U.S.-Iran tensions while the Norges Bank could raise rates in either August or September to 4.50% from 4.25% currently, they say. Moreover, the Federal Reserve could refrain from raising rates this year which should help the krone by improving overall foreign exchange liquidity, they say. The euro trades flat at 11.1576 krone and ING expects it to fall to 10.70 in 12 months. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0951 ET - The dollar is at risk of falling as the Federal Reserve is likely to avoid raising interest rates this year, ING analysts say in a note. The dollar has recently strengthened on expectations that the Fed will lift rates. "ING's take is that the Fed will ultimately ride out this inflation spike and keep rates unchanged heading into 2027." In contrast ING expects the European Central Bank to raise rates again in September. This will reduce the cost of buying protection against the risk of a weaker dollar, the analysts say. The euro last trades up 0.2% at $1.1430 and ING expects it to reach $1.17 in three months. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0946 ET - The Swiss National Bank could continue to emphasize its willingness for interventions to prevent the franc from rising, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. While the franc is softer versus the dollar and the euro relative to the start of the Iran war, the SNB is "unlikely to sit back and relax" with interventions remaining a risk, she says. Nevertheless, the dollar has been the preferred safe-haven currency during the war while European Central Bank has raised interest rates, providing some relief to the SNB. The dollar rises 0.2% to 0.8099 francs, having reached a 12-day high of 0.8108 overnight, LSEG data show. The euro rises 0.3% to 0.9251 francs after earlier hitting a three-week high of 0.9258. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 13, 2026 11:47 ET (15:47 GMT)
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