The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2148 ET - Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% in 2026 amid a K-shaped world economy where some industries and economies are running hot, and others cold, says Moody's Analytics in commentary. U.S. GDP growth could average just 2% and Chinese growth slow to 4.6% this year, it says. While booming AI demand has saved the global economy from a sharper slowdown, geopolitical risks, stretched asset valuations and volatility in financial markets could easily flip the outlook from slow growth to recession, cautions. A fresh flare-up or a drawn-out disruption to movement through the Strait of Hormuz will sharpen the trade-offs facing central banks--cut rates to support their economies and risk faster inflation, or raise rates to curb inflation and inflict more damage on growth, it adds. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
2143 ET - The Thai baht might weaken further versus the dollar on some headwinds, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a research report. "Thailand's low carry profile remains a headwind, while the recent rebound in oil prices is likely to worsen the country's terms of trade," the senior currency analyst says. "Growth risks have also increased amid the re-escalation of Middle East tensions, which could encourage the Bank of Thailand to maintain an accommodative policy stance to support the economy," Chan says. Moreover, MUFG Bank's valuation metrics suggest the baht remains modestly overvalued, the analyst adds. The dollar edges 0.1% higher to 33.58 baht after touching 33.67 baht on Wednesday, the highest intraday level since April 2025, according to LSEG data. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2107 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the U.S. dollar amid mixed developments. On one hand, softer-than-expected U.S. PPI data overnight have reduced Fed rate-hike expectations after U.S. CPI data earlier this week. "Pricing of a 25bp FOMC rate hike later this month dropped further to 10%, compared to 45% prior to the CPI release," CBA's Carol Kong says in a research report. On the other hand, prospects of the U.S. and Iran returning to a "hot-war" poses downside risks to the Australian dollar against the greenback, the economist and currency strategist adds. The Australian dollar edges 0.1% lower to US$0.6997, while the U.S. dollar is 0.2% higher at 1,487.60 won, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2031 ET - JGBs are mixed in early Tokyo trade as investors grapple with overnight price gains in U.S. Treasurys and rising crude oil prices. JGBs tend to move in tandem with Treasurys. However, ongoing rise in oil prices is likely sparking concerns over higher inflation in Japan, which might lead to a quicker pace of BOJ rate increases. The two-year JGB yield is 0.5 bps higher at 1.435%, but the five-year yield is down 0.5 bps at 1.930% while the 10-year yield is unchanged at 2.685%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2017 ET - Japanese stocks are lower in early trade amid artificial-intelligence-related worries spurred by Wednesday's declines in Dell Technologies and U.S. memory plays like Micron Technology. Both the Nikkei and the Nasdaq Composite have "ridden the wave of AI enthusiasm, but now that trade seems buffeted by uncertainty and at risk of more declines," says Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, in an email. Among the worst performers on Japan's benchmark index, Kioxia Holdings falls 8.9%, Kokusai Electric declines 6.7%, and Ibiden is down 5.9%. The dollar is at 162.08 yen versus 162.18 yen around Wednesday's Tokyo market close. The Nikkei Stock Average is down 2.1% at 67332.70. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1957 ET - Australian consumer spending trends remain choppy, with CBA's household spending indicator rising 0.3% in June after a 0.2% lift in May and 1.2% fall in April. The data is making it challenging to see a clear trend, says Belinda Allen, senior economist at CBA. The data does show some weakness through June with midyear sales by retailers less impactful than in 2025, she adds. CBA expects household spending will slow over the remainder of this year as house prices falls, sapping confidence. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1939 ET - Japanese stocks may fall amid fears of an escalation of the Middle East conflict and overnight weakness in U.S. chip stocks. President Trump is leaning toward expanding U.S. military operations in Iran after receiving briefings on new, escalatory options from top aides. Japanese chip names may decline after the U.S.'s PHLX Semiconductor Index fell 2.1% on Wednesday. Nikkei futures are 935 points lower at 67860 on the SGX. The dollar is at 162.07 yen versus 162.18 yen around Wednesday's Tokyo market close. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 1.5% higher at 68751.51 on Wednesday. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1936 ET - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers is leaning on key regulators to adopt a pro-growth policy stance, in an effort to snap the country's economy out of a deep slump in productivity growth. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and the Australian Securities and Investments Commission have been called to pursue "a bigger emphasis on promoting growth" in order to "unlock more productivity," Chalmers says. The drive will strike the right balance between reducing regulatory burdens while promoting financial system stability, he adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1632 ET - Bitcoin is back below the $65,000 mark after charging above it in morning trade. While cooler-than-expected inflation readings gave investors hope that rate hikes this year may not be necessary, for bitcoin the fundamentals still allow for the possibility of the rally to lose its legs quickly. "[With] macro factors like Brent crude oil spiking past $90 (a barrel) and reigniting rate-hike fears, this CPI-fueled 'borrowed bid' could quickly be called back," says analysts with Bitfinex in a note Wednesday. The firm notes that bitcoin showed little in the way of demand before yesterday's CPI report, with today's PPI readings continuing the trend of investors re-embracing riskier assets. But without that trend, bitcoin is seen largely without legs. It's trading up 0.7% to $64,968. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1553 ET - Treasury yields fall amid fresh signs of cooling U.S. inflation and a lull in Middle East headlines. Oil prices rise slightly. June PPI inflation comes in below expectations, leading to projections of a decline in the PCE measure later this month, although it is still likely to remain well above the Fed's 2% target. Markets keep pricing in at least one Fed hike this year. June retail sales are forecast to slow down and weekly jobless claims are forecast to tick higher, in WSJ consensus estimates. The WSJ Dollar Index falls 0.4%. The 10-year yield drops 0.040 percentage point to 4.545%. The two-year falls 0.067 p.p. to 4.126%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1414 ET - U.S. oil stock depletion starts to raise concerns with the U.S. and Iran engaged in renewed fighting that's again keeping oil trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA reported a 1.7 million barrel decline in commercial crude stocks for last week, as well as a further 3 million barrels released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. "The energy picture continues to tighten, with commercial inventories and the SPR falling again," TradeStation's David Russell says. "We're not in crisis territory, but there's less breathing room at a time of intense global uncertainty." WTI is down 0.3% at $79.11 a barrel and Brent is off 0.2% at $84.55. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1301 ET - Canada's push to accelerate major infrastructure and energy projects could be contributing to increased business confidence, says Carolyn Rogers, the Bank of Canada's No. 2 official. At a press conference, senior BOC officials were asked whether a recent string of major projects the Liberal government is pursuing -- highlighted by a new pipeline connecting Alberta to the Pacific Coast -- changed the central bank's medium-term economic outlook. It will take a long time before [the projects] show up in the hard economic data," Rogers says. She says the faster growth projected in the BOC's quarterly forecast is partly based on improved business confidence about navigating the current economic landscape. "It would be reasonable to think that one of the things contributing to that is some of these larger project announcements," Rogers adds. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 15, 2026 21:48 ET (01:48 GMT)
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