According to the wind-chasing trading desk, Nomura Securities issued a research report on July 16, raising the Kioxia Holdings target price to 126,000 yen from the previous level and reiterating its Buy rating. The core logic of this upgrade is:The price of NAND flash memory bits continued to climb against the backdrop of supply shortages, exceeding previous market expectations. Meanwhile, concerns surrounding the U.S. government's export restrictions on cutting-edge AI models are gradually dissipating, helping to boost AI-related demand sentiment.
Driven by the above judgment, Nomura simultaneously raised its profit forecast for Kioxia Holdings-raising its operating profit forecast for fiscal 2027 (as of March) from 7.0 trillion yen to 7.5 trillion yen, and significantly raised its forecast for fiscal 2028 from 9.8 trillion yen to 10.7 trillion yen. The calculation of the target price is based on the FY2028 free cash flow forecast (upgraded to JPY 6.9 trillion from JPY 6.3 trillion) and uses a 10x market cap/free cash flow ratio (equivalent to 9.0 times the FY2028 earnings per share forecast).
Bit price rises more than expected, supply shortages are core drivers
Kioxia Holdings' price growth forecast for the April-June quarter of 2026 has been raised to +70% from +65% quarter-on-quarter, and the forecast for the July-September quarter has been raised to +25% from +20%.It is worth noting that this judgment is different from the expectations of some market institutions. Research firm TrendForce had previously predicted that the price of NAND bits in April-June 2026 would be weaker than the level at the end of March due to the slowdown in consumer electronics demand. However, Nomura quoted the latest statement of memory module manufacturers in Taiwan Province, China, believing that the price of bits actually maintains an upward trajectory.
According to the report, ADATA's SSD-related sales are highly correlated with the performance trend of Kioxia Holdings. The company's SSD-related sales from April to June 2026 increased by 87% month-on-month. ADATA management also said that it expects NAND flash memory contract prices to rise by 35% to 40% quarter-on-quarter in the July-September quarter. The above data provides important evidence for Nomura's optimistic judgment.
AI export restriction worries ease, emotional pressure tends to fade
The report also paid attention to the recent changes in market sentiment around the US government's AI export control policy.The U.S. government's restrictions on the export of cutting-edge AI models were previously pointed out in an industry report released on June 16, 2026 as an important event affecting AI-related sentiment. OpenAI's latest GPT-5.6 series was released in stages on June 26 in accordance with the requirements of the U.S. government, in a way that is only open to specific trusted users, which has caused a certain negative impact on AI-related market sentiment.
However, with the continuous improvement of relevant news since the beginning of July and OpenAI's full public release of the GPT-5.6 series on July 9th, market sentiment has begun to show signs of picking up. This shift helps to alleviate the uncertainty that previously suppressed AI-related demand expectations, and positively supports the demand outlook of NAND flash memory suppliers such as Kioxia Holdings.
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