Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting July 20.
Provisional purchasing managers' surveys for the U.S., eurozone and the U.K. will provide a snapshot of business-sector activity during July just as military conflict in the Middle East has resumed, pulling oil prices higher.
The European Central Bank will announce an interest-rate decision, while the U.K. will see a raft of key data releases, including inflation, just as a new prime minister takes office.
In Asia, Bank Indonesia is widely expected to raise interest rates again to support the rupiah while China's benchmark lending rates are likely to remain unchanged. Inflation data are due from Japan, New Zealand and Singapore.
Investors will keep a close eye on events in the Middle East to see whether heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran persist or whether they begin to ease.
U.S.
The week ahead is a relatively quiet one for U.S. economic data but investors will scrutinize any evidence of how the economy is performing ahead of the next Federal Reserve announcement on July 29.
Friday's purchasing managers' surveys on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors will provide a picture of how the economy has performed this month just as oil prices have turned higher once more due to renewed Middle East conflict.
The latest data will give signs of whether the U.S. economy remains as robust as some figures in recent months have shown. This will follow recent below-forecast consumer-price and producer-price inflation data which have caused investors to trim their expectations for interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
U.S. money markets currently don't fully price a 25 basis-point interest-rate increase from the Fed until December, LSEG data showed.
"It appears that the disinflationary trend that began in 2023 has indeed remained intact," Elmar Voelker, senior fixed-income analyst at LBBW, said in a note. "Given this context, there is little to suggest that U.S. monetary policymakers will decide to raise the benchmark interest rate at their next meeting."
Other U.S. data due during the week include leading indicators figures for June on Monday, weekly jobless claims Thursday, and June new home sales Friday.
The U.S. Treasury will auction $13 billion in 20-year bonds on Wednesday and $21 billion in 10-year inflation-protected TIPS on Thursday.
Canada
Canadian inflation data for June are due Monday.
The data come after the Bank of Canada left its main interest rate unchanged recently at 2.25% and said there were signs of improvements in the economy.
Canadian money markets price a probability of rates staying on hold over the coming months, with a 67% chance of a rate hike in December, LSEG data show. Upcoming data are likely to determine where rates go from here.
"We continue to think officials' forecasts are overly optimistic and expect softer growth and core inflation data in coming months," Citi analysts said in a note.
Retail sales data for May are due Thursday.
Eurozone
The European Central Bank's monetary policy decision on Thursday and flash estimate purchasing manager indices for July on Friday will be the key events in the eurozone in the coming week.
The ECB is expected to leave the policy rates on hold after raising them by 25 basis points at the June meeting. However, the central bank could opt to hike rates again in September to ward off potential second-round inflationary effects from higher energy prices.
"Lower-than-expected inflation [in June] and the volatile situation in the Middle East argue for waiting for more information," Jan von Gerich, chief analyst at Nordea, said in a note.
Nordea expects the ECB to stay on hold at the upcoming meeting. However, given the renewed escalation of the war in the Middle East, another hike can't be fully excluded, Von Gerich said. Nordea expects another rate increase in September.
Investec believes there is a case to be made for a further upward adjustment in policy rates, "but waiting until the September meeting now appears the more prudent option to us," economist Ryan Djajasaputra said in a note.
Renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran could weigh on the PMI data, which give a measure of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, Djajasaputra said. However, he noted that subsequent rises in oil prices have been limited, keeping them well below their peaks in late April.
The data calendar otherwise will be relatively light. Germany's producer price index for June on Monday will be followed by Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index for July due on Tuesday and the German GfK consumer climate survey on Friday. French monthly business surveys for July are due Thursday.
Germany will be the only scheduled bond issuer, launching a new October 2031-dated federal note, or Bobl, on Tuesday and auctioning May 2041- and May 2047-dated Bunds on Wednesday.
U.K.
Andy Burnham is poised to become the U.K.'s prime minister on Monday, following Keir Starmer's resignation from the role. Investors will be keen to find out the new cabinet members on Burnham's team as this could indicate the direction of future public spending and taxation plans.
U.K. CPI inflation data for June due on Wednesday will be among the highlights of the coming week as investors gauge whether the Bank of England could raise interest rates in the coming months. The U.K. as a net energy importer is highly exposed to elevated energy prices due to conflict in the Middle East.
Investec expects that the BOE will maintain the key interest rate at 3.75% for the remainder of 2026, but is "mindful of the risk of higher rates at some stage, especially given the volatile nature of the situation around Gulf," economist Philip Shaw said in a note. U.K. money markets currently price in a 25 basis-point rate increase in November, LSEG data showed.
Producer price figures for June will be released alongside the CPI figures.
Labor market data on Tuesday will also be a key indicator ahead of the BOE's next rate decision on July 30. Recent data releases have pointed to weakness in the U.K. jobs sector.
Public finances numbers are released on Tuesday. These come after May's public sector borrowing rose to 23.3 billion pounds ($31.41 billion), 30% more than a year earlier. Increasing spending pressures and tight revenues could weigh on public finances and push up government borrowing costs.
U.K. flash purchasing managers' surveys for July are due Friday, giving a picture of activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. Retail sales data are also due Friday, as well as GfK's consumer confidence indicator for July.
Turkey
Turkey's central bank announces its policy decision on Thursday.
The central bank has kept interest rates unchanged at 37% at its last three meetings, having cut rates in January. At its last meeting in June, the central bank said the underlying trend of inflation decreased slightly in May but noted that energy prices remain volatile and elevated.
"Our base case is that the policy rates will be left unchanged until around the end of the year, at which point a resumption of the disinflation process will allow gradual interest rate cuts," Capital Economics economist William Jackson said in a note.
South Africa
The South African Reserve Bank's next interest rate decision is on Thursday.
At its last meeting in May, the central bank raised its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%, citing inflationary risks linked to higher oil and food prices.
Capital Economics expects the SARB to raise rates by another 25 basis points this month to 7.25% and maintain rates at this level until next year. Risks of more hikes are "tilted to the upside," however, Capital Economics economist David Omojomolo said in a note.
"We think food and headline inflation rising above the 5-6% would prompt the SARB to deliver two or three 25 basis-point hikes in relatively quick succession."
Japan
The Japanese government is scheduled to release June trade figures and consumer inflation data on Wednesday and Friday, respectively.
Chip-related demand and a weak yen likely supported exports, while efforts to secure alternative energy supplies amid Middle East tensions are expected to have further boosted imports. Higher oil prices have likely begun to push consumer prices higher, although inflation is still expected to remain below the Bank of Japan's 2% target.
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to conduct outright purchases in three sectors of the Japanese government bond market on Thursday, including securities with tenors of more than one year and up to three years and those with tenors of more than 10 years and up to 25 years. The purchases are expected to support the bond market that day.
The ministry of finance is scheduled to auction about 300 billion yen of 40-year JGBs on Wednesday. The bonds will be a reopening of the May 2026 issue, according to the ministry. As the new 40-year debt will likely offer a much higher yield than other government securities, it will probably attract solid investor demand.
The Japanese government's "apparent move to shift [Government Pension Investment Fund] asset allocation and adjust tax treatment of retail JGBs is supporting JGBs and the JPY," two strategists at Barclays Securities Japan said. "Such a shift by the GPIF, along with increased retail JGB sales, could underpin the superlong sector," they said.
China
China's data docket is light, with Monday's loan prime-rate announcement the sole major event of note.
The rates, which serve as benchmarks for most household and corporate loans, will likely remain unchanged despite weaker-than-expected economic performance in the second quarter.
Although economists have lowered their full-year growth forecasts to reflect the second-quarter stumble, China is still expected to meet its official target. Any policy support will likely be incremental rather than sweeping.
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July 17, 2026 11:33 ET (15:33 GMT)
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